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December 13, 2009


Futures Markets Say Democrats Retain Control

With less than a year until the 2010 midterm elections, let's see how traders are betting with their wallets in the political futures markets: Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Markets.

The probability -- using last price of Friday's contract in percentage terms -- that Republicans will take control of the House of Representatives:

Intrade: 33.0%
IEM: 19.0%

The probability that Republicans will take control of the Senate:

Intrade: 6.0%
IEM: 1.5%


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