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January 14, 2010

Massachusetts Senate Race Called a Toss Up

Charlie Cook: "This race call is one of the toughest we've had in a long time. The modern electoral history of federal statewide races in Massachusetts argues strongly that while state Attorney General Martha Coakley, the Democratic nominee, could have a close race, at the end of the day it's unlikely that she ends up losing. After all, no Republican Senate candidate has won in the Bay State since 1972."

"But the non-quantitative arguments are quite strong. Republican Scott Brown has been the superior candidate with, by a long shot, the better campaign... To the extent Coakley may still have a tiny advantage, it appears not to meet the normal standard we have for a 'lean' rating: a competitive race but one in which one party has a clear advantage. We see no clear advantage."

Stuart Rothenberg: "Democratic desperation and other compelling evidence strongly suggest that Democrats may well lose the late Senator Edward Kennedy's Senate seat in Tuesday's special election. Because of this, we are moving our rating of the race from Narrow Advantage for the Incumbent Party to Toss-Up."

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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