If Martha Coakley (D) loses the U.S. Senate race in Massachusetts tomorrow, Democrats are in a tough position with the health care reform bill because they would lose their 60th vote needed to pass the final bill in the Senate.
In this event, their options range from refusing to seat Scott Brown (R) until they can pass the bill or shift to the budget reconciliation process which requires only a simple majority in the Senate. But, as First Read notes, the option that "seems to be gaining the most traction at this point" is to try to have the House pass the Senate bill without making any changes.
"Now there are plenty of unintended consequences and unanswered questions of going this route. If the House simply passes the Senate bill, the deal Big Labor cut last week on the so-called "Cadillac" excise tax is null and void. Also, the Medicaid exemption for Nebraska would still be in there. Finally, this idea really hasn't been floated by the House Democratic leadership. When First Read asked a member of the House leadership about this possibility a few months ago, were told, 'No chance' because the assumption was the House moderates and progressives were going to want to have a real say in the conference committee and didn't want to simply look like they were run by the Senate Democrats. Of course, that was then; this is now. And the political reality is this: The White House does not want a year of the political capital they used up on health care to die because of a special election in Massachusetts. They believe they need SOMETHING for all of this political pain they've endured."
