Forecast Suggests GOP Could Win 37 House Seats

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April 12, 2010

Forecast Suggests GOP Could Win 37 House Seats

Alan Abramowitz's election forecasting model for the 2010 House midterm election -- "perhaps the most accurate of all political science models in projecting past midterm elections," notes Larry Sabato -- suggests Republicans will pick up 37 House seats in November. That is very close to the 40 seats the GOP needs to take outright control of the House.

The key variables in the Abramowitz model are (1) it is the midterm election of a Democratic presidential administration and (2) the Democrats are defending so many marginal seats -- more than fifty that they added in 2006 and 2008, two exceptionally pro-Democratic elections.

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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April 12, 2010