Illinois Senate Race Now Leans Republican

Worth Clicking: Blasts from the past wound Romney

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April 26, 2010

Illinois Senate Race Now Leans Republican

With Alexi Giannoulias (D) facing fallout from federal regulators taking over his family's bank, the Cook Political Report just moved the Illinois U.S. Senate race from Toss Up to Leans Republican.

"Our guess is that Democrats will give Giannoulias' strategy some time to work, though it's not clear how much time their patience can tolerate. If Giannoulias hasn't shown some progress, or at the very minimum, that he hasn't seen further erosion in his support, it will be very difficult for Democrats to allow him to remain in the race. But, getting Giannoulias out won't be easy. He is committed to running. Democrats are equally committed to keeping the President's former Senate seat. At this point, the odds are probably less than 50 percent that Giannoulias can survive, and that Democrats will end up with a different nominee."

"Given recent events, it's impossible to justify keeping the race in the Toss Up column. While current circumstances would seem to lend themselves to a rating of Likely Republican, we know that it's entirely possible that we could well be dealt a different hand -- and a very different race -- a month or two from now."

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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April 26, 2010