Evaluating Crist's Chances

Worth Clicking: Blasts from the past wound Romney

Follow @politicalwire

April 29, 2010

Evaluating Crist's Chances

If Florida Gov. Charlie Crist launches an independent bid for U.S. Senate later today -- which now seems almost certain -- the big question will be can he beat opponents Kendrick Meek (D) and Marco Rubio (R)?

The New York Times notes that "even the most experienced strategists here are dumbfounded. Never before, they say, has there been a three party Senate race in a major swing state, with each candidate well-financed, and so much at stake in terms of the Washington power balance."

But Marc Ambinder takes a look at the new math in the race and doesn't think so.

The winning candidate in a three-way race will almost definitely need upwards of 33% of the vote. But as Ambinder notes, the independent vote will be "fairly small," probably around 18% of the electorate. With Meek and Rubio cramping the middle, Crist's path for victory looks narrow but not impossible.

Comments (View)

EMAIL NEWSLETTER

PARTNER STORIES

OUR OTHER SITES

Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

PRAISE FOR POLITICAL WIRE

"There are a lot of blogs and news sites claiming to understand politics, but only a few actually do. Political Wire is one of them."

-- Chuck Todd, NBC News political director

"Concise. Relevant. To the point. Political Wire is the first site I check when I’m looking for the latest political nugget. That pretty much says it all."

-- Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report

"Political Wire is one of only four or five sites that I check every day and sometimes several times a day, for the latest political news and developments.”

-- Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report

"The big news, delicious tidbits, pearls of wisdom -- nicely packaged, constantly updated... What political junkie could ask for more?"

-- Larry Sabato, Center for Politics, University of Virginia

"Political Wire is a great, great site."

-- Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC's Morning Joe

"If I were on the proverbial desert island and had only one web site to access, Political Wire would be it."

-- Dotty Lynch, CBS News political consultant

"Taegan Goddard has a knack for digging out political gems that too often get passed over by the mainstream press, and for delivering the latest electoral developments in a sharp, no frills style that makes his Political Wire an addictive blog habit you don't want to kick."

-- Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post

"Political Wire is one of the absolute must-read sites in the blogosphere."

-- Glenn Reynolds, founder of Instapundit

"I love Political Wire. It is a one stop shopping site for all the political information I need. It makes me sound brilliant so naturally I like it!"

-- Dick Morris, political consultant

"I rely on Taegan Goddard's Political Wire for straight, fair political news, he gets right to the point. It's an eagerly anticipated part of my news reading."

-- Craig Newmark, founder of Craigslist.

Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

April 29, 2010