What to Watch in Pennsylvania

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May 18, 2010

What to Watch in Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) faces a tough primary challenge from Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) for the Democratic Senate nomination. Polls close at 8 pm ET.

1. The early returns will come from Philadelphia where Specter is widely seen as having an advantage. Specter started his political career as Philly's district attorney and is counting on a large turnout among African-Americans. While polling differs on how well Specter and Sestak are doing in Philadelphia, Specter better jump out to a large lead early or his night will likely be a long one.

2. Speaking of the black vote, Specter's fate may be tied to Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Anthony Williams. Williams, who is African-American, has, like Specter, been endorsed by most of the major politicians and political organizations in Philadelphia. While Williams is likely to lose to front-runner Dan Onorato, a strong Williams performance (20%+ statewide) probably indicates a high African-American turnout and is good for Specter.

3. Suffolk University pollsters have pegged York County as the "bellwether" county. That is, the county most likely to predict the results statewide. While Suffolk University does not always get the results right, the winner of their chosen bellwether county almost always wins statewide.

-- Guest contributor Harry Enten writes Margin of Error and is an intern for Pollster.com.

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May 18, 2010