Political Scientists Forecast Big Losses

Worth Clicking: Blasts from the past wound Romney

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September 06, 2010

Political Scientists Forecast Big Losses

Mark Blumenthal notes three of five presentations at a political science convention in Washington, D.C. this weekend predicted Republicans will gain more than 39 seats to take control of the House of Representatives.

Alan Abramowitz of Emory University forecast a Republican gain of 49 seats with a model based primarily on the generic congressional ballot.

Joe Bafumi of Dartmouth College forecast a 50-seat Republican gain using on a model that also heavily uses the generic congressional ballot.

James Campbell of SUNY Buffalo predicted a gain of 50 to 52 seats for the Republicans using a model that combines Cook Political Report ratings with the recent job approval rating of President Obama.

Alfred Cuzan forecast a Republican gain of 27 to 30 seats based on a model that relies on measures of economic growth and inflation rather than voter preference polling.

Michael Lewis Beck of the University of Iowa predicted a Republic gain of just 22 seats using his time-test "referendum" model based on a variety of measurements taken earlier this year.

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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September 06, 2010