September 10, 2010


Model Predicts Likely GOP Takeover of House

According to his new House forecasting model, Nate Silver says Republicans have a 67% chance chance of winning control of the House of Representatives in November.

In addition, Republicans "have about a one-in-three chance of winning at least 54 seats, their total in 1994, and nearly a one-in-four chance of gaining at least 60."

"On average, the model predicts a net gain of 45 to 50 seats for Republicans. But there are 90 districts, the model finds, in which either party still has at least a 10 percent chance of prevailing, and it is on a district-by-district basis that each party will learn of their fate on Nov. 2."










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