Model Predicts Likely GOP Takeover of House

September 10, 2010

Model Predicts Likely GOP Takeover of House

According to his new House forecasting model, Nate Silver says Republicans have a 67% chance chance of winning control of the House of Representatives in November.

In addition, Republicans "have about a one-in-three chance of winning at least 54 seats, their total in 1994, and nearly a one-in-four chance of gaining at least 60."

"On average, the model predicts a net gain of 45 to 50 seats for Republicans. But there are 90 districts, the model finds, in which either party still has at least a 10 percent chance of prevailing, and it is on a district-by-district basis that each party will learn of their fate on Nov. 2."

Comments (View)

Latest Political Jobs:

jobs by

EMAIL NEWSLETTER

PARTNER STORIES

Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

PRAISE FOR POLITICAL WIRE

"There are a lot of blogs and news sites claiming to understand politics, but only a few actually do. Political Wire is one of them."

-- Chuck Todd, NBC News political director

"Concise. Relevant. To the point. Political Wire is the first site I check when I’m looking for the latest political nugget. That pretty much says it all."

-- Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report

"Political Wire is one of only four or five sites that I check every day and sometimes several times a day, for the latest political news and developments.”

-- Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report

"The big news, delicious tidbits, pearls of wisdom -- nicely packaged, constantly updated... What political junkie could ask for more?"

-- Larry Sabato, Center for Politics, University of Virginia

"Political Wire is a great, great site."

-- Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC's Morning Joe

"If I were on the proverbial desert island and had only one web site to access, Political Wire would be it."

-- Dotty Lynch, CBS News political consultant

"Taegan Goddard has a knack for digging out political gems that too often get passed over by the mainstream press, and for delivering the latest electoral developments in a sharp, no frills style that makes his Political Wire an addictive blog habit you don't want to kick."

-- Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post

"Political Wire is one of the absolute must-read sites in the blogosphere."

-- Glenn Reynolds, founder of Instapundit

"I rely on Taegan Goddard's Political Wire for straight, fair political news, he gets right to the point. It's an eagerly anticipated part of my news reading."

-- Craig Newmark, founder of Craigslist.

Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

September 10, 2010