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September 20, 2010


Cook Shifts Alaska Senate to "Likely Republican"

The Cook Political Report has moved its rating of the Alaska U.S. Senate race from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican" in the wake of Sen. Lisa Murkowski's planned write-in bid.

"While Murkowski is well-known and retains a reservoir of goodwill among voters, history has not been kind to write-in candidates and Murkowski's path to victory is extremely steep. Still, Murkowski's decision adds enough uncertainty, particularly in the absence of polling to provide some guidance, that we are moving the race to the Likely Republican column."

Nate Silver says Murkowski "indeed stands a chance -- and more than a trivial chance -- in her write-in bid. The race would probably be competitive if Ms. Murkowski were running a conventional, independent candidacy. And there is not sufficient evidence to conclude that being a write-in will harm her to the point that she is not viable in a race where she otherwise would have been."












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