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September 28, 2010

Did Blumenthal's Lead Really Evaporate?

First Read: "The political world is buzzing this morning over a new Quinnipiac poll that shows Richard Blumenthal leading Linda McMahon in Connecticut's Senate race by just three points among likely voters, 49%-46%. But here's a word of caution about the poll: It's the latest Quinnipiac likely voter survey to show incredible GOP performance -- Rob Portman up 20 points in Ohio, John Kasich ahead 17 points in the Buckeye State, and Carl Paladino down just six points in New York (with Marist and Siena showing much bigger leads for Andrew Cuomo). Indeed, the Blumenthal campaign has released its own poll showing Blumenthal up by 12 points among likelies, 52%-40%. So it's one of two things: Either Quinnipiac is nailing what the general-election environment is looking like (which will be a historic day for the GOP), or its likely voter screen is too tight (and it's missing a lot of Democratic votes). We'll find out who's right exactly five weeks from today."


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