September 30, 2010


The Power of Polling Averages

Nate Silver observes that, "over the course of the past half-dozen election cycles, constructing a simple polling average has provided a very reliable indication of which candidates will win the general election in Senate and gubernatorial races. Polling deficits in the high single digits, with 30 days to go in the campaign, have only rarely been overcome. Candidates who trail by double digits in the polling average have almost never defied the odds."

In fact, U.S. Senate and gubernatorial candidates with a lead of 6-9 points in a simple polling average, with 30 days before the election, have an 89% winning percentage.










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