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October 16, 2010


Large Number of House Seats in Play

While Nate Silver projects a Republican net gain of 48 seats in the House of Representatives, he notes "there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast because of the unusually large number of House seats now in play. A gain of as large as 70-80 seats is not completely out of the question if everything broke right for Republicans. Conversely, if Democrats managed to see a material rebound in their national standing over the final two weeks of the campaign, they could lose as few as 20-30 seats, as relatively few individual districts are certain pickups for Republicans."

The bottom line is that "fairly subtle shifts in the political environment between now and Nov. 2 could have relatively profound implications for the seat count."












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