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October 29, 2010

Reviewing the House Forecasts

Larry Sabato: "We are raising the total to +55 net R seats. We consider 47 to be in the ballpark still, but more of a floor than a ceiling."

Charlie Cook: "House outlook is a Democratic net loss of 48 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible."

Stuart Rothenberg: "House Democrats appear headed for a historic bloodbath... We estimate likely GOP House gains at 55 to 65 seats, with gains at or above 70 seats possible."

Nate Silver: "The model's best guess is that the new Congress will be composed of 203 Democrats and 232 Republicans: a net gain of 53 seats for the G.O.P. In addition, Democratic odds of retaining the House dropped to 17% from 20%."

It's interesting to note that Political Wire contributor Harry Enten forecast a GOP takeover on the House back in February noting "the Republicans could easily gain 50-60 seats from their current 178. Gains of greater than 60 seats also look quite possible."


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