When Forecasts Go Bad

November 01, 2010

When Forecasts Go Bad

Benjy Sarlin looks back to the 1994 midterm elections and finds nearly every forecaster predicted a Republican gain of 20-25 seats in the House of Representatives.

"Of course that's not what happened -- instead Republicans ended up shocking the world with a 54-seat gain and their first House majority in 40 years. The reason I bring this up is that the current pundit predictions, although a rough estimate, are almost as uniform as they were then in predicting GOP gains of 50-60 seats."

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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"There are a lot of blogs and news sites claiming to understand politics, but only a few actually do. Political Wire is one of them."

-- Chuck Todd, NBC News political director

"Concise. Relevant. To the point. Political Wire is the first site I check when I’m looking for the latest political nugget. That pretty much says it all."

-- Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report

"Political Wire is one of only four or five sites that I check every day and sometimes several times a day, for the latest political news and developments.”

-- Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report

"The big news, delicious tidbits, pearls of wisdom -- nicely packaged, constantly updated... What political junkie could ask for more?"

-- Larry Sabato, Center for Politics, University of Virginia

"Political Wire is a great, great site."

-- Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC's Morning Joe

"If I were on the proverbial desert island and had only one web site to access, Political Wire would be it."

-- Dotty Lynch, CBS News political consultant

"Taegan Goddard has a knack for digging out political gems that too often get passed over by the mainstream press, and for delivering the latest electoral developments in a sharp, no frills style that makes his Political Wire an addictive blog habit you don't want to kick."

-- Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post

"Political Wire is one of the absolute must-read sites in the blogosphere."

-- Glenn Reynolds, founder of Instapundit

"I rely on Taegan Goddard's Political Wire for straight, fair political news, he gets right to the point. It's an eagerly anticipated part of my news reading."

-- Craig Newmark, founder of Craigslist.

Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

November 01, 2010