Early Forecast Shows Obama Headed for Win

Worth Clicking: Blasts from the past wound Romney

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November 21, 2010

Early Forecast Shows Obama Headed for Win

Yale economist Ray C. Fair has updated his forecast and says that based on the facts at hand right now, President Obama is likely to win the 2012 election in a landslide.

Fair tells the New York Times that there "is considerable data behind his election prediction, using his econometric models. One produces a forecast for the overall, or macro, economy, while another uses economic inputs to forecast the national popular vote. At the moment, he says, the data augurs well for the president."

Said Fair: "The model certainly suggests that if the economy is good and improving as an election approaches, it's very difficult to defeat an incumbent president."

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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November 21, 2010