Today's special election in New York's 26th congressional district between Kathy Hochul (D), Jane Corwin (R) and Tea Party candidate Jack Davis "has been framed as the country's first unofficial referendum on Republicans' plan to reshape Medicare. This referendum, however, could send ripple effects deep into 2012," Roll Call reports.
Two recent polls found Hochul leading Corwin, with third-party candidate Jack Davis drawing a small, but significant, portion of the electorate. A GOP loss "would be embarrassing for the GOP at best, while giving Democrats a tested and effective strategy to target swing districts in 2012 at worst."
Politico:
"There's probably no more critical factor in the race than Jack Davis,
the Democrat-turned-tea-party-candidate who's spent nearly $3 million of
his own funds casting himself as an independent-minded outsider who
will save the Buffalo area's blue-collar workers from losing their jobs
to China. Davis, who's been the target of GOP attack ads in recent
weeks, has seen his polling numbers plummet from 23% last month to 12%
in a Siena Research Institute survey released over the weekend. But the
poll found Davis picking up 13% of Republican voters -- support that
would otherwise very likely go to Corwin and could determine a close
contest."
The Hotline:
"Keep a close eye on Erie County, the most populous and Democratic
portion of the district. Both Davis, when he ran as a Democrat in 2006,
and 2008 Democratic nominee Alice Kryzan carried Erie County despite
losing the election. Hochul, as the county clerk, needs to rack up
comfortable margins in her home base. Meanwhile, Corwin needs to win
comfortably in the Rochester suburbs of Monroe County, the Republican
base of the district. If Hochul is running close with Corwin there, it's
tough to see how the Republican wins. Corwin also needs to run up the
score in the rural parts of the district - the "glow region" of Genesee,
Livingston, Orleans, and Wyoming Counties."
