Weiner's Seat is Vulnerable

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August 10, 2011

Weiner's Seat is Vulnerable

A new Siena poll in New York's 9th Congressional District finds some worrying signs for Democrats in the special election to replace former Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY).

While both candidates, Republican Robert Turner and Democrat David Weprin, remain unknown by a plurality of voters -- 49% and 45%, respectively -- Weprin leads Turner 48% to 42%, a slimmer than expected margin in a strongly Democratic district. In fact, although 61% of those polled were Democrats and just 17% were Republicans, Weprin only receives 61% of the Democratic vote while Turner takes 80% of Republicans and leads with independents 46% to 42%.

Dave Weigel: "It's tough to hold a seat when your party's incumbent resigned after sending pictures of his over-stuffed underwear to women, and Republicans still have a lock on the 'to hell with these guys' vote. But that can be mitigated if Weprin runs a predictable campaign and scorches Turner over entitlement spending. Seventy-two percent of voters oppose Social Security and Medicare cuts; Turner is doing quite well with them."

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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August 10, 2011