Why the Truman Analogy Doesn't Hold

Worth Clicking: Blasts from the past wound Romney

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October 06, 2011

Why the Truman Analogy Doesn't Hold

Though many have suggested Harry Truman's 1948 campaign against a "do-nothing Congress" as a model for President Obama, Brendan Nyhan points out that "the dramatic narrative of Truman's victory doesn't hold up to scrutiny."

Key difference: "Truman's comeback was fueled by 'sizzling' growth in the year before the election (the time when voters tend to most strongly reward economic improvement)... This well-timed surge in economic growth is likely to have played an important role in the success of Truman's campaign. By contrast, the International Monetary Fund just downgraded its forecast for US economic growth in 2011 and 2012 to 1.5% and 1.8%, respectively."

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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October 06, 2011