This post is part of our guest series from speechwriting firm Inkwell Strategies analyzing the 2012 campaign ad war.
Since the Great Gingrich Surge began a few weeks ago, political pontificators have scoured the tea leaves in an effort to determine when and how the Romney campaign would respond. A recently-released attack produced by the pro-Romney super PAC "Restore our Future" provides the first concrete glimpse of what may be to come - but just a glimpse, as it was removed from Restore our Future's Youtube feed almost immediately.
The online-only ad shows a photo of a beaming President Obama, asking, "Why is this man smiling? Because his plan is working."
Suggesting that the President's political team has taken on Romney while treating Gingrich with kid gloves, the obvious implication is that Obama is pulling the strings in GOP primary in order to secure an easier fight in the general election. Why, you ask, would Obama prefer Gingrich to Romney? "Because Newt has a ton of baggage," the ad helpfully explains.
The ad goes on to list his "baggage," complete with unflattering photos and somber narration. Ethics violations, payments from Freddie Mac and healthcare companies, as well as previous stances on global warming and immigration.
The ad also includes an unflattering quote from Washington Post columnist George Will, in which he calls Gingrich "the least conservative candidate" in the race. With Republican primary voters seeking a pure conservative to carry the party's flag this fall, Will's critique stings.
The ad also attempts to stick Gingrich with the flip-flopper label. This strategy serves the dual purpose of further questioning Newt's conservative credentials while potentially helping to neutralize the issue of flip-floppery that has dogged Romney for years.
Coupling these two attack lines - questioning Gingrich's electability ad conservative credentials - is Romney's best hope. But it's not clear that either approach will pay dividends. On the electability front, recent polls have given Gingrich an edge over Romney when it comes to which candidate Republicans see as best positioned to defeat President Obama. If Romney hopes that Gingrich's supporters are protest voters who will eventually return to rationality, they may be disappointed.
Painting Gingrich as a flip-flopper comes with risk as well. If the GOP primary were a two-candidate race, it would be a no-brainer. But if this ad succeeds at convincing primary voters that Gingrich is not a pure conservative, it's not clear Romney would be the beneficiary.
It's interesting that the Restore our Future ad was pulled off Youtube so quickly. We can only speculate on the reason, but it could very well reflect a continued internal debate among Romney's advisers about how best to handle the latest and most serious threat to the former Massachusetts Governor's candidacy.
Whether the Obama campaign truly prefers Gingrich over Romney, one thing is certain: if the GOP race winds past the early states and lingers into the spring, Obama will indeed be smiling.
