Gaming Iowa Expectations

Worth Clicking: Blasts from the past wound Romney

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December 13, 2011

Gaming Iowa Expectations

John Ellis says that Newt Gingrich will ultimately under-perform expectations in Iowa "because he does not have a substantial statewide organization" and "he doesn't have any money to buy telemarketing services."

However, Ron Paul "has a substantial field organization and so is likely to somewhat over-perform in the actual balloting."

The key for Mitt Romney "is for Paul to out-perform and for Gingrich to under-perform. This sets up a press narrative of the Gingrich souffle. The Newtster rose and then he fell. The normal laws of political gravity apply. Unstated conclusion: Gingrich is doomed. This is exactly the narrative that Romney needs going into New Hampshire."

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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December 13, 2011