Iowa Still Wide Open

Worth Clicking: Blasts from the past wound Romney

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December 14, 2011

Iowa Still Wide Open

Nate Silver takes a first crack at forecasting the winner of the Iowa caucuses and conclude although Newt Gingrich "still has the lead, Iowa looks to be fairly wide open with as many as five plausible winners."

"Right now, Mr. Gingrich's win probability is just under 50 percent, but Mr. Paul has gained ground and now has a 28 percent chance of winning. Mr. Romney, Gov. Rick Perry of Texas and Michele Bachmann are all between about 5 and 10 percent, while Rick Santorum has about a 2 percent chance of winning based on the current surveys."

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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December 14, 2011