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January 03, 2012

Iowa Caucus Results

CNN entrance polls show Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in the top tier of candidates. No surprises.

Entrance polls of those who arrived early: Paul and Romney lead with 24%, followed by Santorum at 18%, Gingrich at 13%, Perry at 11% and Bachmann at 7%.

One prediction I'll make: Entrance polls will seem way off from final results because caucus attendees can react to the data as it comes in on their phones.

Complete entrance polls -- early and late arrivals -- show Paul leading with 24%, Romney at 23%, Santorum at 23%, and Gingrich at 13%.

NBC News election models show first and second place within .3%. They also conclude entrance polls overestimated Paul's strength.

Official caucus results are rolling in.

The Republican party is seriously fractured. Each of the leading three candidates represents a very different segment of the GOP.

It's clear Romney seriously misplayed the expectations game. Anything less than a win and he'll be slaughtered by the media for the next week.

NBC News will not call the race and instead wait for all the votes to be counted. It's just too close to call.

Romney is unlikely to improve on his 2008 finish. It looks like he'll get roughly the same percentage of the vote.

NBC News now projects Paul will finish in third place.

We don't know the winner yet, but this will be the closest Iowa caucus result ever.


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