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January 05, 2012

Does Perry Really Have a Chance?

Nate Silver believes that Rick Perry's decision to remain in the race for the Republican presidential nomination is a sign that Perry may have a viable path forward, or at least thinks he has one.

"Mr. Perry's polling in South Carolina has not been good recently. But if you need only 20 percent of the vote to lead the field there, or if the number of undecideds or weakly committed voters remains high, you would not need all that much momentum to contend... I would not assign high odds to Mr. Perry making a comeback -- much less actually winning the nomination. And there is reason to be skeptical of the idea that conservative elites would throw their support to Mr. Perry now when it would have been more advantageous for them to do so before Iowa. Nevertheless, Mr. Perry does have some relatively unique strengths as a candidate, at least in comparison to this year's Republican field, and sometimes optimal decision-making is clouded by the fog of war that accompanies the Iowa caucuses."


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