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March 13, 2012

Romney Likely to Win More Delegates Tonight

Regardless of the final popular vote result in Alabama and Mississippi, Harry Enten notes the the net delegate count in each state is likely to be pretty even.

"Mississippi's delegates are going to be split proportionally, and we're probably looking at a split of nine delegates for Gingrich, nine for Romney, and seven for Santorum. Alabama has a 'top two' primary in each congressional district (that is, the winner in each district will get two delegates and second-placed candidate will get one), while the state-wide delegates will be apportioned proportionally. Determining who will win which districts is difficult in such a close state-wide race. Romney's probably going to come in third in the more rural areas, but he could win the districts around Birmingham, Huntsville and Mobile. My estimate is that he'll take 14-17 delegates state-wide, while Santorum and Gingrich take 11-20 delegates each."

That said, Romney will still likely end the night with more delegates than his rivals.

"Though not subject to much media focus, Romney's going to do very well in the American Samoa and Hawaii caucuses. American Samoa is 30% Mormon (the most Mormon-dominated contest this year, outside of Utah)... Hawaii's delegates will be divided more evenly because its allocation system is proportional."


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