April 04, 2012


When Romney Won

Nate Silver tries to pin down the moment that "historians will see as the turning point when they look back on the 2012 Republican race" and concludes that it all ended on February 28 with the Michigan and Arizona primaries.

"One piece of evidence for this is news media coverage... From Iowa on Jan. 3 to Michigan on Feb. 28, a story about the Republican nomination almost always led the political news cycle, topping the coverage 84 percent of the time. Since Michigan, the Republican nomination usually has not been the main story, leading the coverage only 23 percent of the time... Another relatively useful metric is the date on which a candidate secured a lead in national polls that he never relinquished... Michigan -- actually, a few days before Michigan -- again emerges as the key turning point by this measure. Mr. Romney has led his rivals in the Gallup national tracking poll every day since Feb. 25."










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