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April 19, 2012


Do Romney's Favorability Numbers Matter?

Nate Silver: "Mr. Romney's mediocre favorability ratings at this early stage of the race are no death sentence. There have been clear reversals in favorability ratings in the recent past once the general election campaign got under way, such as in 1988 and 1992... The favorability deficit between Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama is more likely to be meaningful the longer it persists. If, for instance, we still see this favorability deficit in July -- and certainly if we see it in September or October -- the odds are fairly good that Mr. Obama will perform more strongly than the economic fundamentals alone would dictate and could win an election that he is otherwise 'supposed' to lose... For the time being, I'd consider them a negative but fairly minor factor when we evaluate his chances at victory."












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