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June 01, 2012


The Margin Matters in Wisconsin

John Ellis looks ahead to next week's Wisconsin recall: "Truly important elections don't come along that often. This one matters."

"The key to this election, however, is not really whether Governor Walker wins. More or less everyone expects him to do that. The key is how much he wins by. The crude calculation is this: Walker defeat equals certain Obama win in November. Walker win by 1-5 percentage points equals very close presidential general election (nationally). A Walker win by 6 points or more equals Mitt Romney is the favorite to win in November."












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