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June 07, 2012

Early Forecast Shows Obama with Edge

Nate Silver's first 2012 presidential forecast has President Obama "as a very slight favorite to win re-election. But his advantage equates to only a two-point lead in the national popular vote, and the edge could easily swing to Mitt Romney on the basis of further bad economic news."

"Mr. Obama remains slightly ahead of Mr. Romney in most national polls, and he has had a somewhat clearer advantage in polling conducted at the state level. Mr. Obama would be about 80% likely to win an election held today... However, the outlook for the Nov. 6 election is much less certain, with Mr. Obama having winning odds of just over 60%."

Key issue to resolve: "One of the confusing aspects of this presidential race so far is that national polls have often shown a race that is nearly tied -- or Mr. Romney sometimes leading -- while Mr. Obama has more often had the lead in polls of crucial battleground states. Sites that project the presidential outcome based on the state polls have thus seemed to show a tangible advantage for Mr. Obama, while those that look at the trend in national polls seem to imply that the race is too close to call."


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