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September 08, 2012


Big Bounce Coming for Obama?

Nate Silver says tracking polls are pointing toward "a decent-size convention bounce" for President Obama and says it's "unlikely, in fact, that the movement in the polls reflects statistical noise alone."

"What's a bit more worrisome for Mr. Romney is that Gallup's reporting of the head-to-head results in its poll occurs over a lengthy seven-day window, meaning that only a minority of the interviews in the poll were conducted after the major speeches at the Democratic convention. In fact, most of the interviews in the poll were conducted just after the Republican convention in Tampa, Fla., a period in which Mr. Romney should have been enjoying a convention bounce of his own."












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