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September 21, 2012


Obama Bounce May Not be Receding

Nate Silver points out that a simple average of the four national tracking polls put President Obama 3.4 points ahead of Mitt Romney, essentially no different than a week ago, when the same technique gave him a 3.5-point lead.

"It's at least possible that Mr. Obama's bounce was fading -- but that the attention to Mr. Romney's '47 percent' comments has since given Mr. Obama renewed momentum. It will take a few more days before we can come to any sort of conclusion about this, however, especially since some of the tracking polls use long field periods and have only conducted a fraction of their interviews since Mr. Romney's remarks were uncovered."














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