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October 12, 2012


No Swing State Firewall for Obama

Even though recent swing state polling shows President Obama maintaining a lead over Mitt Romney, Nate Silver says the president's Electoral College advantage is build on a shaky foundation.

"Even if one grants Ohio to Mr. Obama, however, that would not seal victory for him. He would still need to win some other combination of states; his path of least resistance probably flows through Wisconsin, and then either Iowa or Nevada."

"Iowa, in particular, is a crucial state that has been thinly polled all year. (The FiveThirtyEight model, in fact, calculates that Iowa is slightly more essential to the Electoral College than Florida, despite having many fewer electoral votes.) There has been just one poll of Iowa since the debates, and while it gave Mr. Obama the lead, it was an automated poll that probably does not merit too much weight."














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