October 27, 2012


Can the Stock Market Predict the Election?

The New York Times ranks the 28 presidential terms since 1900 on the performance of the Dow Jones industrial average -- the only major stock index with a history that long -- during each presidential term, and on what happened in the election that followed it.

"When the Dow has risen more than 5 percent a year, the incumbent party has retained the White House in 11 elections and lost it in only three elections. When the market fell, or rose at a rate slower than 5 percent, the incumbent party has lost the White House in eight of 13 elections."










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