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November 04, 2012

For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Biased

Nate Silver finds President Obama with an 84% chance to win the presidential election and that the barrage of swing state polls showing him leading Mitt Romney represents "powerful evidence against the idea that the race is a 'tossup.' A tossup race isn't likely to produce 19 leads for one candidate and one for the other -- any more than a fair coin is likely to come up heads 19 times and tails just once in 20 tosses. (The probability of a fair coin doing so is about 1 chance in 50,000.)"

"Instead, Mr. Romney will have to hope that the coin isn't fair, and instead has been weighted to Mr. Obama's advantage. In other words, he'll have to hope that the polls have been biased in Mr. Obama's favor... They could be biased. Based on the historical reliability of polls, we put the chance that they will be biased enough to elect Mr. Romney at 16%."


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