November 05, 2012


Obama Probability of Re-Election Bounces Back

The latest FiveThrityEight forecast finds President Obama's probability of winning 270 votes in the Electoral College has hit 86.3%, nearly recovering to his previous high of 87%, which came before polls started capturing the effects of the first presidential debate in Denver.

Tweets Nate Silver: "Obama unlikely to win by anything like his post-DNC margins. But Romney has no momentum, Obama's state polling is robust, and time is up."

Meanwhile, Larry Sabato also forecasts an Obama electoral vote win, 290 to 248.










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