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November 30, 2012

Why Romney Thought He Would Win

The New Republic obtained the final internal polling numbers from Mitt Romney's presidential campaign for six key states, along with additional breakdowns of the data, which were prepared by the campaign's chief pollster, Neil Newhouse.

"The first thing you notice is that New Hampshire and Colorado are pretty far off the mark. In New Hampshire, the final internal polling average has Romney up 3.5 points, whereas he lost by 5.6. In Colorado, the final internal polling average has Romney up 2.5 points; he lost by 5.4... The Iowa number is also questionable, showing the race tied even though Romney ended up losing by almost 6 points."

"Together, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Iowa go most of the way toward explaining why the Romney campaign believed it was so well-positioned. When combined with North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia--the trio of states the Romney campaign assumed were largely in the bag--Romney would bank 267 electoral votes, only three shy of the magic number."


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