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December 01, 2012


Why Romney Shouldn't Have Been Surprised He Lost

Nate Silver notes that Republicans probably shouldn't have been shocked that Mitt Romney lost the presidential election even though his own polls showed him ahead.

"When public polls conducted by independent organizations clash with the internal polls released by campaigns, the public polls usually prove more reliable... My database of campaign polls released to the public in United States House races found that they were about six points more favorable to their candidate than independent surveys on average -- and that they were typically less accurate in the end."












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