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May 10, 2013

Demographic Trends are Very Unfriendly to Republicans

Pew Research looks at the new Census Bureau report on the ethnic breakdown of voters and "if you're a Republican thinking of running for president one day, you may be a bit concerned."

"First, whites were 74% of voters last year at a time when they were just 63% of the population. This racial turnout gap is driven by the fact that a disproportionate share of non-whites are either too young to vote, not eligible to vote (because they're not citizens), or just don't vote. All of these factors could change over time."

"Second, if we look at the 2060 projections, we can see that there's a lot more diversity yet to come. The Census Bureau makes its projections based on an analysis of fertility rates, mortality rates and immigration trends. They're not set in stone. Things change. But they give a sense of the general direction of things. And many of these future demographics are already a reality--for example, about half of newborns in 2010 were non-white."


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