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October 31, 2013

A Boring Election

Harry Enten: "This year, we may have a new election night record for earliest announcement of the winners in an off-year following a presidential election... Christie is up by nearly 30 points in New Jersey, De Blasio is ahead by over 40 points in New York City and McAuliffe is leading by about 8 points in Virginia."

"I went back over the past 40 years of election results to get an idea of how rare the snoozefest of 2013 is for the after-presidential-off-year election troika... Only 1977, 1985, and 2013 were near or above double digits in their closest race."

"What separates 1985 and 2013 from 1977 is the fact that two of the races were or are going to be landslides. Even though none of the 1977 races were nail biters, they were all modestly competitive. None had margins of greater than 14pt. 1985 had - and 2013 looks to ultimately have - two races in which the winning candidate won by more than 25pt."


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