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December 16, 2013

Not Too Early to Look at Iowa

First Read looks at the weekend Iowa Poll that found Rep. Paul Ryan with the highest favorable ratings of possible GOP presidential candidates.

"Ryan's one of the few Washington insiders with credibility with the GOP base on the outside. As we noted above, he used that capital to get this budget compromise done. It will be interesting to see if Ryan can keep that popularity with the GOP base in a place like Iowa after a few months of intra-party debate over this budget deal. And the Christie numbers are a reminder that, with Iowa's very conservative GOP electorate, he's going to struggle. Sometimes the conventional wisdom is accurate and this Iowa poll reflects the C.W. on Christie with the GOP base."

"On the Dem side, while the Clinton numbers will surprise no one, the Biden numbers might. But realize: If there's no Clinton, he'll be more formidable as a de factor non-Hillary frontrunner than perhaps the chattering class realizes. Sure, he's no shoo-in for Dems if Clinton is no-go, and there will be a lot of Dems whose tires will get kicked by voters. But Biden will have a stronger hold on key Democratic constituencies in a primary than he gets credit for now."


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