Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball says Republicans have roughly a 50-50 shot to gain the six seats they need to win control of the U.S. Senate in this year's midterm elections.
"We now favor Republicans in four Democratic-held seats: Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, as well as -- in a ratings change -- Arkansas, where Sen. Mark Pryor (D) appears to be at least a slight underdog to Rep. Tom Cotton (R) in a reddening state. Assuming Republicans can win those, they have roughly even odds to win in three other states where there are Democratic incumbents: Alaska, which we've long classified as a Toss-up, and Louisiana and North Carolina, which we're switching back to Toss-ups after having them in that category for much of last year. It's possible that the race for the Senate will come down to these three Toss-ups, with the party that wins at least two of the three controlling the Senate. And that doesn't even mention the lower-tier races in lighter shades of Red and Blue that adorn the map below, most of which are currently held by Democrats."
A Political Wire reader sends an interesting simulation based on Cook Political Report ratings that shows Republicans with a 47% chance to take control.
Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You
Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political
management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from
both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public
policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country,
including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco
Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
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-- Larry Sabato, Center for Politics, University of Virginia
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"Taegan Goddard has a knack for digging out political gems that too
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latest electoral developments in a sharp, no frills style that makes
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-- Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post
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