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May 06, 2014


New Forecasting Model Sees GOP Winning Senate

The Monkey Cage launched Election Lab, a new Senate forecasting model that gives Republicans an 82% chance of retaking the Senate in this year's midterm elections.

"How did we arrive at this conclusion? You can read more about that model here, but in brief: the model looks at Senate elections between 1980-2012 and estimates the effect of several key factors in the country and in individual states or races -- the rate of economic growth, the popularity of the president, whether it's a midterm or presidential year, the most recent presidential election outcome in that state, whether the incumbent is running, and each candidate's qualification (measured as highest elective office to date)."

In contrast, The Upshot gives Republicans a 54% chance of winning control of the Senate.














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