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May 21, 2014

Nunn's Narrow Path in Georgia

Nate Cohn: "In the racially polarized South, where white voters have been trending Republican for more than a generation, the Democratic route to 50% is mainly a matter of racial demographics. Democrats must wait for more nonwhite voters to overcome their disadvantage with white voters."

"That wait might end soon in Georgia, but not in this November's election. In the midterm balloting, the share of whites will be around 64% of registered voters, down from 72% in 2002, when the Democratic senator Max Cleland lost re-election by 7 points. Ms. Nunn will need nearly 30% of white voters to prevail. If Mr. Cleland were running today, his 30 or 31% of white voters would probably be enough to squeak out a win."

"But most Democrats running for federal office in Georgia fall well short of that 30%... The difference between 26 and 30% of white voters might not seem like much, but it is very significant in the South. It is even harder for Democrats to reach 30% of Georgia's white voters today than it was in 2002."


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