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June 09, 2014


GOP Slightly Favored to Take Senate

Nate Silver: "Our March forecast projected a Republicans gain of 5.8 seats. You'll no doubt notice the decimal place; how can a party win a fraction of a Senate seat? It can't, but our forecasts are probabilistic; a gain of 5.8 seats is the total you get by summing the probabilities from each individual race. Because 5.8 seats is closer to six (a Republican takeover) than five (not quite), we characterized the GOP as a slight favorite to win the Senate."

"The new forecast is for a Republican gain of 5.7 seats. So it's shifted ever so slightly -- by one-tenth of a seat -- toward being a toss-up. Still, if asked to place a bet at even odds, we'd take a Republican Senate."

Meanwhile, The Upshot says Democrats are slightly favored to take control but the gap is narrowing.












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