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August 04, 2014

Republicans Slightly Favored to Take Senate

Nate Silver: "The problem for Democrats is that this year's Senate races aren't being fought in neutral territory... It therefore shouldn't be surprising that we continue to see Republicans as slightly more likely than not to win a net of six seats this November and control of the Senate. A lot of it is simply reversion to the mean.2 This may not be a "wave" election as 2010 was, but Republicans don't need a wave to take over the Senate."

"Summing the probabilities of each race yields an estimate of 51 seats for Republicans. That makes them very slight favorites -- perhaps somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-40 -- to take control of the Senate, but also doesn't leave them much room for error."

"However, I also want to advance a cautionary note. It's still early, and we should not rule out the possibility that one party could win most or all of the competitive races."

The Upshot says Republicans have a 53% chance of winning control.


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