AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: The Debate STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/30/2004 11:08:24 PM ----- BODY: It was a great, substantive debate on the most important issue facing our country. I think Kerry will gain the most and therefore is the winner. Bush was defensive from the beginning on an issue that is supposed to be his strength. It wasn't a clear knockout, but expectations for Kerry were pretty low.

I'll have more in the morning. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry Bush debate ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Back to the Future STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/30/2004 04:44:20 PM ----- BODY: If you thought the debate was tonight, you missed it -- at least according to this AP story posted this afternoon.

Update: ABC took down the story, but Atrios still has it on his site. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: presidential debates ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Ten Things to Know STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/30/2004 12:30:05 PM ----- BODY: On NPR, Connie Rice gives the "Top 10 Secrets They Don't Want You to Know About the Debates." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: presidential debate ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Tracking Undecided Voters in Real Time STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/30/2004 10:18:02 AM ----- BODY: CBS News is hoping to get the scoop on how undecided viewers will respond to tonight's debate. As part of its debate coverage, the network will feature on its website, a real-time, Internet-based survey of 200 undecided voters, the Boston Globe reports. The bar chart will resemble "a bouncing thermometer graph much like the volume meter on a home stereo system," and will track the immediate response among the undecided audience.

Update: The American Research Group tells us they will also be measuring viewer reaction during the course of the debate. The first results will be available beginning at about 11 pm. On Friday, they will release minute-by-minute data from their own in-house panel to the debate. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: real time poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Working With The Man STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/30/2004 09:40:09 AM ----- BODY: "After 30 years of rebelling against the Man, hip-hop as a culture is intent for the first time this year on helping to choose him by becoming a force in mainstream politics," the Hartford Courant reports. "Voter-registration drives, fund-raisers and so-called hip-hop summits around the country are among the tools leaders in the urban-music community are using to mobilize their constituents: young people, often (but not exclusively) of color, who have tended to tune out politics until now."

But there's a twist: "There's no doubt that either presidential candidate would benefit from the backing of voters hip-hop says it has to offer. But hip-hop isn't interested in supporting a candidate -- it wants a candidate that supports hip-hop." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: hip hop politics ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: House Playing Field Narrows STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/30/2004 09:33:45 AM ----- BODY: "The House playing field, already diminished by the decennial redistricting process, appears to be further shrinking as both parties consolidate their resources into a handful of districts where races are expected to go down to the wire," Roll Call reports.

"Despite claims by both parties that they are trying to expand the size of the playing field, a look at the districts where the two House committees are funding independent-expenditure ads reveals that the number of races contested at this point is actually lower than it was in 2002."

As we noted earlier, it's getting harder to call our congressional elections democratic. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Debate Primer STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/30/2004 08:53:49 AM ----- BODY: Tonight's debate between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry "marks the culmination of months of campaigning, speeches and attack ads, and the clash is likely to set the tone for the remaining five weeks of the election," the Washington Post reports.

"Each candidate has studied briefing books and held hours of practice sessions, honing the sound bites that will best capture the attention of the millions of television viewers. For many viewers, the information will seem new, but both men have been road-testing their claims as they have barnstormed the nation, in the political equivalent of an out-of-town tryout for a Broadway show."

Since the debate is about foreign affairs, the New York Times reviews the candidate's positions but finds few differences. The Wall Street Journal concurs, saying "when it comes to many policy specifics, the two men aren't as far apart as the rhetoric tonight might suggest."

The Los Angeles Times takes it even further, saying that "despite all their sparring over the war in Iraq," Bush and Kerry "have one thing in common when it comes to foreign policy: Neither wants to draw attention to how much they actually agree."

The New York Times provides a useful summary of the rules for tonight's debate. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: presidential debate ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Now on DVD: The Passion of Bush STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/30/2004 08:33:59 AM ----- BODY: The New York Times notes that October 5th "will bring the perfect storm in this year's culture wars. It's on that strategically chosen date, four Tuesdays before the election, that the DVD of Fahrenheit 9/11 will be released along with not one but two new Michael Moore books. It's also the release date of the equally self-effacing Ann Coulter's latest rant, of a new DVD documentary, Horns and Halos, that revisits the Bush mystery year of 1972, and of an R.E.M. album, Around the Sun, that gets in its own political licks at the state of the nation."

"Of the many cultural grenades being tossed that day, though, the one must-see is George W. Bush: Faith in the White House, a DVD that is being specifically marketed in "head to head" partisan opposition to "Fahrenheit 9/11." This documentary first surfaced at the Republican convention in New York... Though you can buy the DVD for $14.95, its makers told the right-wing news service WorldNetDaily.com that they plan to distribute 300,000 copies to America's churches. And no wonder. This movie aspires to be 'The Passion of the Bush,' and it succeeds."

Also coming out in October is the film, Going Upriver: The Long War of John Kerry. ----- EXTENDED BODY: B0002VEPD0 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Election Day Dawns Early in 30 States STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/30/2004 08:17:14 AM ----- BODY: "An unprecedented shift that makes it easier for voters in 30 states to cast their ballots early means that the first votes of the 2004 election will be in the ballot box before the first barbs of the presidential debate are even exchanged," Stateline.org reports.

"Election experts predict that as much as 30 percent of the vote this year could be cast before Nov. 2 -- double the almost 15 percent of votes cast before Election Day 2000." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: early voting ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/30/2004 06:37:54 AM ----- BODY: President Bush "has a 5-percentage-point lead" over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters, "but nearly one-fifth say the candidate debates that begin tonight could affect their decision," a new Los Angeles Times poll has found. Bush leads 51% to 46%, with both men "holding at least 90% of the voters from their own party." (See the extended poll analysis.)

However, Bush "still faces widespread doubts about many of his central initiatives. A narrow majority says the situation in Iraq was "not worth" the war, and a solid plurality believes that the president's policies have hurt, rather than helped, the economy. These doubts could provide the senator from Massachusetts with openings in the campaign's final weeks."

The latest Harris Poll shows Bush with a two-point lead over Kerry among likely voters, 48% to 46%.

Here are the latest state polls: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: MSNBC Dumps Luntz STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/29/2004 08:58:37 PM ----- BODY: After Media Matters sent a letter to MSNBC complaining about the use of GOP pollster Frank Luntz in its debate coverage, Roll Call's Heard on the Hill says the network blinked: "Looks like the letter had an impact. Although MSNBC did not respond to Brock, a spokeswoman for the network told HOH late Wednesday that the network has decided 'not to go with Frank for the debate.' In fact, MSNBC won’t conduct polling at all now, she said."

Tapped was also on the case and described Luntz as "one of the right-wing political gurus many on the left are both in awe of and enraged by -- a bogeyman in the same category as Karl Rove and Grover Norquist." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Frank Luntz ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/29/2004 08:02:57 PM ----- BODY: President Bush "has reopened a significant lead" over Sen. John Kerry "over the past week, even as voters express less confidence in the president on Iraq and he continues to trail Kerry on the economy," accoridng to a new Pew Research Center survey. Bush now leads 48% to 40%.

"The poll finds that Bush's gains in support are being driven more by perceptions of Kerry's weakness especially on leadership and other personal traits than by improved opinions of Bush."

The latest Economist poll shows the presidential race tied, with Bush and Kerry each getting 46%.

The latest Democracy Corps poll (D) shows Bush slightly ahead of Kerry among likely voters, 49% to 46%. We noted their latest strategy memo yesterday.

For a terrific roundup of new polls, see 2.004k.com.

Here are the latest state polls: Update: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Cheney Changed View on Iraq STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/29/2004 02:02:05 PM ----- BODY: According to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Vice President Dick Cheney was against the Iraq war before he was for it.
"In an assessment that differs sharply with his view today, Dick Cheney more than a decade ago defended the decision to leave Saddam Hussein in power after the first Gulf War, telling a Seattle audience that capturing Saddam wouldn't be worth additional U.S. casualties or the risk of getting 'bogged down in the problems of trying to take over and govern Iraq.'"
A transcript of Cheney's original remarks is available and shows he was very concerned about governing Iraq in a post-war environment. Say what you want about him; he had stunning foresight at one time.

The Carpetbagger Report notes Sen. John Edwards, who will debate Cheney next week, "was quick to pounce on the story," telling talk show host Don Imus this morning: "[Cheney] was against getting bogged down in Iraq before he was for it." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: After the Election STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/29/2004 01:36:57 PM ----- BODY: In the latest Atlantic Monthly, Hotline Editor Chuck Todd has a wonderful piece in which he asks "What will happen to the losing party after the election?"
"The answer almost certainly is internal chaos and collapse for the losing party, whichever it may be. So firmly ingrained is the combat mentality that neither party believes the opposing candidate is capable of 'winning' the election -- only that its own candidate or campaign is capable of losing it. Which means that regardless of which party loses, the recriminations will resemble, in the words of Chris Lehane, an adviser to Al Gore's failed 2000 campaign, 'the scene in the classic western The Treasure of the Sierra Madre when everyone turns on each other and begins blasting away.'"

The upheaval will be immediate. If John Kerry loses the election, the aftermath, like the campaign itself, will become a heated referendum on Iraq—and on whether Kerry took a clear enough position. The left wing of the Democratic Party has held itself largely in check since 2000... That restraint will collapse... A Kerry loss will most likely also signal the return of the liberal standard-bearer Howard Dean...

"The turmoil in the Republican Party could be even worse. Conservatives seem wholly unprepared for the possibility of a Bush loss. As with the Democrats, repercussions would focus first on the issue of Iraq, and a campaign for regime change aimed at the neoconservatives atop the party's foreign-policy establishment will be swift... The collateral damage would extend even to the Bush family; it's hard to imagine Republicans nominating Jeb Bush and risking the possibility of a third single-term Bush President."
Todd concludes saying "whichever party loses the election will face the sort of ideological struggle that seems to occur every generation or so in politics" but this time, "given the tightness of the race and the promise of victory within reach of either party, the shock will be greater still." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: after the election ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: You Had the Power STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/29/2004 12:46:19 PM ----- BODY: With the release of Howard Dean's new book, You Have the Power, Mathew Gross reflects on what the campaign meant to him: "For those of us who were there -- which includes most of the lefty blogosphere, and a few hundred thousand others -- Dean's new book provides more than just a pleasant walk down memory lane. It's a reminder of what it is we were fighting for -- and a reminder that the fight is far from over." ----- EXTENDED BODY: 0743270134 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Howard Dean ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Kerry Calls Vote Change "Inarticulate" STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/29/2004 12:21:40 PM ----- BODY: Hoping to set the record straight before the tomorrow's debate, Sen. John Kerry said he's been "inarticulate" in regards to explaining his Senate votes on the Iraq war, the AP reports.

Said Kerry: "We should not have gone to war knowing the information that we know today. Knowing there was no imminent threat to America, knowing there were no weapons of mass destruction, knowing there was no connection of Saddam Hussein to Al Qaida, I would not have gone to war. That's plain and simple." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry Iraq vote ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Best and Worst of Congress STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/29/2004 09:53:58 AM ----- BODY: "Members of Congress work hard on creating a positive image, so we usually know little about them that they don't want us to know. But their aides know a lot -- who's smart and who's dumb, who's gutsy and who's a blowhard."

Just in time for the election, Washingtonian asked top Capitol Hill staff "to get the lowdown." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Gallup Defends Poll STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/29/2004 09:25:28 AM ----- BODY: Gallup's chief pollster defended their presidential poll last night on CNN's Inside Politics after withering criticism from bloggers Chris Bowers and Ruy Teixeira. Gallup partner USA Today also defends the poll.

Will bloggers take down yet another established media/political organization? Time will tell.

Meanwhile, MoveOn blasts Gallup's survey methodology in a new ad running in major newspapers. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Gallup poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Daschle's Secret Weapon STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/29/2004 09:14:42 AM ----- BODY: The Hill reports an aide to Sen. Tom Daschle "carries a blue pillow around... just in case the boss needs to avoid being looked down on. It is a favorite prop of the 5-foot-8-inch Senate minority leader. Daschle’s press office had no comment." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Tom Daschle ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Why Did Bush Go To War? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/29/2004 09:09:43 AM ----- BODY: That's the question the Kerry campaign asks in their new ad. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Iraq war Kerry ad ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Heinz Kerry Under Wraps? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/29/2004 08:58:21 AM ----- BODY: "Famed for independent-mindedness, Teresa Heinz Kerry is taking a new tack during the final countdown to Election Day," USA Today reports.

"She's subordinating herself to her husband's campaign strategists... Staffers had worried that her blunt remarks were costing Kerry votes. If she makes national news these days on routes that are off the beaten track, it's strictly by accident." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Teresa Heinz Kerry ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Soros Hits the Road STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/29/2004 08:55:54 AM ----- BODY: Billionaire George Soros, "who has given $18 million to Democratic advocacy groups to defeat" President Bush, "is preparing to spend millions more because he fears" Kerry might lose, the New York Times reports.

"Soros announced on Tuesday that he was sending himself on a $3 million 12-city tour to argue that keeping Mr. Bush in the White House would endanger the nation's security, economy and values and continue 'the vicious circle of escalating violence in Iraq.'"

Editor's Note: As part of the effort, Soros purchased an ad in Political Wire's left hand column. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: George Soros ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Strong Closer? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/29/2004 08:50:23 AM ----- BODY: There is much in Sen. John Kerry's "past to suggest that he believes elections are won in the endgame, that he holds back on purpose and begins concentrating intently on the race only when he believes the voters are, too," the New York Times reports.

"It remains to be seen whether an approach that has worked in Mr. Kerry's liberal home state or with Democratic primary voters eager to anoint a consensus candidate will be effective in a national election, but Mr. Kerry has little choice but to perform at his peak now."

The St. Petersburg Times says that "among longtime Kerry watchers, it's almost a cliche: He's a strong closer with a knack for roaring back when his candidacy is in crisis." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry strong closer ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: The Fear Factor STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/29/2004 08:46:47 AM ----- BODY: In a "dramatic strategic shift" that his advisers called "high-risk," Sen. John Kerry and his campaign "are using a string of speeches, statements and television ads to argue that the United States will be more susceptible to higher casualties in Iraq and future terrorism threats at home if Bush is reelected," the Washington Post reports. In many ways, it's a mirror image of the Bush-Cheney strategy.

But some Democrats "worry that Kerry could inadvertently help Bush by spooking voters about dangers ahead, because polls have consistently shown the president with a clear edge on whom voters consider the strongest leader and the one most able to deal with terrorism. Recent public polls suggest Kerry's strategy so far has not changed the dynamics of the race." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry Bush scare tactics ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Bush Outspends Kerry in Battleground STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/29/2004 08:42:35 AM ----- BODY: President Bush outspent Sen. John Kerry "on television advertising last week in virtually all of the 10 most closely watched battleground states, even as the Massachusetts senator ramped up his spending in several of those states," the Chicago Tribune reports.

Meanwhile, an analysis of state polls by the New York Times shows that "the race in the last six days has been most competitive in nine states -- Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon and Pennsylvania -- while ten others -- Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin and West Virginia -- "were leaning toward Mr. Bush." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry Bush battleground ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/29/2004 08:30:36 AM ----- BODY: "If anyone truly has 'low expectations' for an incumbent president, that in itself is an issue."

-- Al Gore, in a New York Times op-ed, on the Bush's campaign's ability to make "lowering expectations" into "a high art form." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush lowering expectations ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Debate Preview STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/29/2004 08:27:25 AM ----- BODY: Previewing tomorrow night's debate, the Wall Street Journal notes that despite their "very different styles," President Bush and Sen. Kerry "have equally solid records at this game."

The Washington Post notes that Iraq, "the issue most likely to ignite fire in tomorrow's debate, has become the chief symbol of differences between" Bush and Kerry.

Meanwhile, in a New York Times op-ed Al Gore says Kerry should "attack the president on his catastrophic record." Gore concludes with a great line: "Comparing [Buhs's] grandiose promises to his failed record, it's enough to make anyone want to, well, sigh." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry debate ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Networks Balk at Debate Rules STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/29/2004 06:41:33 AM ----- BODY: "Although the Bush and Kerry camps have meticulously crafted an agreement on the rules for this year's presidential debates, the television networks broadcasting them refuse to go along with the plans," CNN reports.

"Specifically, the networks object to provisions in the agreement that place limits on their cameras, including prohibitions on shots of one candidate while the other is answering questions."

But the San Francisco Chronicle notes that the Fox News Channel, "which is operating the cameras as part of a media pool, said it plans to show reaction shots, meaning the camera will show Kerry while the president is speaking and cut to Bush while the Democratic challenger is answering questions."

"Reaction shots caught President George H.W. Bush glancing at his watch during a 1992 debate and showed" Al Gore "repeatedly sighing during a debate in 2000 with then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry Bush debate agreement ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: What Kerry Must Do STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/28/2004 09:36:03 PM ----- BODY: The latest strategy memo from Stan Greenberg and Matt Hogan argues Sen. John Kerry must target his base in the upcoming debates.
"John Kerry and the Democrats are rich with targets that could be consolidated or persuaded, despite the intense polarization of the presidential election... This is an unusual landscape of opportunity because of the course the race has taken and Kerry's difficulties in fully consolidating Democratically inclined groups. The bad news is those patterns have kept Kerry a few points behind Bush in the race. The good news is that Democrats are clearly underperforming and can make gains in the race, and indeed win."
----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry debate strategy ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Kerry Gets Endorsement of Bush's Hometown Paper STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/28/2004 02:44:40 PM ----- BODY: "A weekly newspaper that bills itself as President Bush's hometown paper endorsed John Kerry for president, saying the Massachusetts senator will restore American dignity," the AP reports. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry endorsement ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/28/2004 01:10:31 PM ----- BODY: Zogby will begin daily national tracking, starting October 4th and running right through Election Eve, November 1st. Sign up today!

Though Sen. John Kerry has "held a narrow but consistent lead among registered voters under age 30," the new GENEXT Poll shows that President Bush "has pulled even." Since last month's poll, Bush gained slightly among young voters (+3 percentage points), while Kerry lost support (-5 points).

Poll junkies should note today's commentary from the Electoral Vote Predictor: "It is becoming increasingly clear that the pollsters are producing the results that the people paying the bills want to hear. Even pollsters who were once thought to be above suspicion are now suspicious."

Update: The new Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor poll has Kerry leading Bush 46% to 45% among likely voters. Among registered voters, they are tied at 44%.

Here are the latest state polls: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Campaign Goof of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/28/2004 10:59:22 AM ----- BODY: "Iowa Democrats are chortling after the Republican Party mailed a bungled campaign brochure to thousands of northeast Iowa voters, touting the voting record of a Senate candidate who's never served in the Legislature," the Des Moines Register reports.

"The botched campaign brochure cost between $3,000 and $4,000 to produce and mail." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Iowa Senate race ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Who Wrote Allawi's Speech? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/28/2004 10:33:15 AM ----- BODY: No one knows who wrote the speech that Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi delivered before the joint meeting of Congress last week. However, the Washington Post suspects that Allawi may have just gone "to the White House Web site and combed through some of President Bush's speeches." Check out some of the similarities.

As Josh Marshall commented at the time: "Is Prime Minister Allawi actually part of the Bush campaign? Or is he registered as a 527?" ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Bush Planned to Back Favored Iraqi Candidates STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/28/2004 10:01:49 AM ----- BODY: Time magazine reports the Bush administration planned to funnel money to candidates it favored in the upcoming Iraqi elections, before House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D) "came unglued" when she learned about the effort.

"A source says the idea was to help such candidates -- whose opponents might be receiving covert backing from other countries, like Iran -- but not necessarily to go so far as to rig the elections." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush plan Iraq elections ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: The Bullet Point Candidate STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/28/2004 09:52:31 AM ----- BODY: First Read reports that Sen. John Kerry is becoming a more disciplined campaigner. "The 'semicolon' candidate is slowly being replaced by a candidate who speaks in bullet points. At his events... Kerry is now focused on a few issues: Iraq, the economy, and an interchangeable third item (usually education and health care) -- not the litany of charges heard over the summer. He is also more actively trying to define his own record and counteract the impression voters have of him as a flip-flopper."

Meanwhile, as we noted earlier, the Boston Globe says Kerry advisers "are convinced that the anti-American insurgency in Iraq represents the greatest threat to Bush's reelection." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry strategy ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/28/2004 09:25:24 AM ----- BODY: "Richard, sometimes you amaze me. You actually voted for those provisions before you voted against them."

-- Former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles (D), quoted by the Charlotte Observer, in a debate with Rep. Richard Burr (R-NC). ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Erskine Bowles ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: The Changing Battleground STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/28/2004 09:15:39 AM ----- BODY: There are more signs the battleground is shifting. The New York Daily News notes Sen. John Edwards "will campaign for the first time today in New Jersey, a clear sign that the campaign is worried about losing the historically Democratic state to" Bush.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post notes that, "to its surprise, New Hampshire has found itself a battleground, joining West Virginia and New Mexico on the short list of low-population states so closely contested that both Republicans and Democrats believe they have no choice but to battle for a narrow advantage." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry battleground ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: The Pros are Coming STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/28/2004 08:23:15 AM ----- BODY: With amateur political webloggers demonstrating they can have an impact on actual campaigns, the professionals are ready to join the fray. A group of political science professors just launched PolySigh to give their ivory tower take on current events. And professional pollster Mark Blumenthal started Mystery Pollster to provide better interpretation of polling results and methodology.

Meanwhile, Salon notes the Internet has turned everyone into James Carville: "There is just so much out there that we didn't have access to four years ago: polling data, fundraising data, media-buy data; instant access to every TV ad and press release and unguarded gaffe and well-timed leak to jolt the campaign; insider dish on what the media's covering and what it's not covering and why..." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Bush Uses Rallies to Get Out the Vote STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/28/2004 08:14:02 AM ----- BODY: "President Bush's campaign aides say they have hit on a novel way to recruit volunteers for his get-out-the-vote army. Anyone wanting to attend one of Mr. Bush's campaign rallies, anywhere in the country, has to get a ticket first. And anyone wanting a ticket, or a coveted spot up front, can improve his chances by putting in a few hours at a phone bank, canvassing Republican homes or putting up lawn signs," the New York Times reports.

"The tactic points up a stark difference between the presidential campaigns: while Senator John Kerry is using his rallies and forums to try to reach undecided voters and to close the deal with standoffish Democrats, Mr. Bush is packing his audiences with supporters who must identify themselves as such in questionnaires and whipping them into brigades ready to blitz crucial districts to get every last voter to the polls."

Says Donald Green, author of the excellent book Get Out the Vote! How to Increase Voter Turnout: "There's a basic principle in experimental psychology, that the hand teaches the heart. You've now made phone calls for George Bush; that helps solidify your commitment to the campaign. If you weren't enthusiastic and committed already, you might be now." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry Bush campaign rallies ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Bush, Kerry Audition Debate Attacks STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/28/2004 08:11:17 AM ----- BODY: President Bush and Sen. John Kerry "took time from debate practice to snipe at each other on Iraq, with the president mocking his rival for indecisiveness and the Democrat saying Bush has no idea how to keep the situation from worsening," the AP reports.

"Meanwhile, the two campaigns sparred with dueling television ads emphasizing the same ideas."

The Washington Post says the candidates' appearances "in two of the election's marquee battlegrounds -- Bush in Ohio and Kerry in Wisconsin -- broke with the tradition of pre-debate seclusion, and the events reflected the moods and planned themes of each camp."

Meanwhile, the New York Times notes the Commission on Presidential Debates said "that it would enforce many of the stipulations agreed to by the" Bush and Kerry campaigns, "but that it would not sign the agreement itself -- which aides to Mr. Bush had indicated was a prerequisite for his participation in the debates." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry debates ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Where They Stand STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/27/2004 10:32:02 PM ----- BODY: Here's a roundup of the more popular electoral college tallies: Update: Ed Fitzgerald has compiled many more projections, but notes "Bush still leads Kerry by a sizable margin according to almost every site." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: electoral college ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/27/2004 10:00:11 PM ----- BODY: President Bush's lead over Sen. John Kerry "narrowed to eight points" in a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll of likely voters, "compared with a 13-point lead in the poll conducted two weeks ago." Bush now leads 52% to 44%.

The new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Bush leading 51% to 45% among likely voters and 51% to 44% among registered voters.

Here are the latest state polls: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/27/2004 05:00:50 PM ----- BODY: "It's been a little tough to prepare because he keeps changing positions on the war on terror... He could probably spend 90 minutes debating himself."

-- President Bush, quoted by Reuters, on his upcoming debates with Sen. John Kerry. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry debates ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Romney's Turnaround Too Late STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/27/2004 04:40:44 PM ----- BODY: According to a Boston Globe review, Turnaround: Crisis, Leadership, and the Olympic Games by Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R)"needs an identity. Is this a business book? An inspirational tome to `Light the Fire Within,' which was the Games' slogan? A resume enhancer for higher office? The world's longest thank you note?"

But the "biggest drawback is that the book arrived at least a year too late. By the time Turnaround hit the bookstores, Romney had been on Beacon Hill for more than 18 months and was being diagnosed with Potomac fever. By then, the celebration of Salt Lake's unexpected success had been overtaken by the hand-wringing about Athens's last-minute scramble to get ready for the Summer Olympics." ----- EXTENDED BODY: 0895260840 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Mitt Romney ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Bush Hits Kerry Hard on Iraq STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/27/2004 03:21:40 PM ----- BODY: Even Democrats have to agree President Bush's new ad is devastating. It's a response to Kerry's Iraq ad last week. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush ad Searching ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Why Rove Wants a Close Race STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/27/2004 01:47:56 PM ----- BODY: The Atlantic Monthly's Joshua Green has a fascinating profile of Karl Rove that investigates his long history of managing tight campaign races and his reputation for using dirty tricks.
"It will come as no surprise to anyone who has paid attention to the current campaign that Rove's most notable tendency in close races has been to go negative against his opponent, early and often... Though it is forever fashionable to denounce negative campaigning, every political expert understands that it can be extremely effective. Rove's career has borne this out perhaps better than any other modern political consultant's."

"Rove's reputation for winning is eclipsed only by his reputation for ruthlessness, and examples abound of his apparent willingness to cross moral and ethical lines."
However, Rove's greatest strength comes when his back is against the wall in the home stretch of a campaign. Writes Green: "Rove isn't bracing for a close race. He's depending on it." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Karl Rove ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Carter Predicts Voting Problems STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/27/2004 01:23:46 PM ----- BODY: Former President Jimmy Carter told the BBC that "voting arrangements in Florida do not meet 'basic international requirements' and could undermine the US election."

Carter said "a repeat of the irregularities of the much-disputed 2000 election... 'seems likely.'" ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Jimmy Carter ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: L.A. Times May Break Tradition, Make Endorsement STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/27/2004 12:11:03 PM ----- BODY: "The Los Angeles Times, which has not endorsed a candidate for president since the 1972 election, may change its policy this year under new editorial/opinion editor Michael Kinsley," Editor and Publisher reports. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry Bush newspaper endorsement ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Campaign Trail 1932 STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/27/2004 12:00:00 PM ----- BODY: "History, it is said, is written by the winners. So it was that scribes trotted out by the New Deal have created the conventional wisdom that Herbert Hoover was a feckless ostrich in 1932, denying that the American economy was on the ropes and declaring that prosperity was right around the corner. FDR rode to the rescue, creating a melange of social and economic programs that helped carry him to an unprecedented three re-elections."

But History Wire notes the Hoover campaign "had its own idea of what was happening during that campaign" and takes us back to the 1932 campaign during the last week of September. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: presidential campaign 1932 ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Sale of Slate Close STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/27/2004 10:07:05 AM ----- BODY: The Washington Post "is said to be close to buying dot-com survivor Slate," according to New York magazine. "Microsoft put the Webzine up for sale in July, saying it was looking to 'find an owner where the rest of their businesses are more aligned.' (Slate is reportedly breaking even on $6 million in revenue.) The New York Times took a look but decided to pass."

The website's talent pool, "and Slate’s smart-people-procrastinating-at-work readership, is part of what is said to attract the Post, since it regards itself as a national paper trapped in a local paper’s body. If it happens, New York–based Slate editor Jacob Weisberg (who refused to comment) isn’t expected to relocate inside the Beltway."

Update: A Political Wire reader notes that Melinda Gates, the wife of Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates, was recently elected to the Washington Post Company's board of directors. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Slate Microsoft ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Kerry's Handlers STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/27/2004 09:17:01 AM ----- BODY: Is this what they mean by being a candidate's handler? ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry handlers ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Bush and Kerry Shared Debate Coach STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/27/2004 08:41:56 AM ----- BODY: While students at Yale University, President Bush and Sen. John Kerry "shared the same oratory teacher and debate coach," the New York Times reports. Professor Rollin Osterweis, "who died in 1982, was a courtly Yale professor who taught a popular and easy class, History of American Oratory, for a quarter-century."

However, the National Journal reminds us that Al Gore's three "victories" in the 2000 debates -- as judged by an AP panel of debate-team coaches -- "helped him lose 10 points in the polls."

Meanwhile, the Houston Chronicle notes Bush "wrapped up another mock debate session Sunday and went for a bicycle ride on his Central Texas ranch as aides tried to downplay expectations for his performance," while Kerry went to "a remote Wisconsin resort for four days of practice." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry debate ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Illinois GOP at War with Itself STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/27/2004 08:24:39 AM ----- BODY: "Reeling from scandal and election defeats, the Illinois GOP is locked in an ideological civil war the Republican right blames on a party leadership that has strayed from core beliefs and values."

But a Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll of Republican voters in the state "suggests it may be the most conservative elements of the party who are out of step." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Illinois Republicans ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: The 10 Toughest Things in Presidential Politics STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/27/2004 08:15:43 AM ----- BODY: It's "hard to deny the parallels between politics and sports, which account for the references to the horse race, the knockout punch and the campaign as a marathon until its sprint to the finish. And the presidential contest is, of course, the Olympics of political competitions."

In that spirit, USA Today "talked to candidates, strategists, pollsters, analysts and scholars to develop an admittedly subjective list of the 10 toughest things to do in national politics -- a sort of election decathlon."
10. "What I meant to say..."
9. Turning your problem into a plus
8. Turning a foe's plus into his problem
7. Changing the subject, successfully
6. Raising the second round of money
5. Getting non-voters to the polls
4. Participating in a presidential debate
3. Surviving a firestorm
2. Making a second impression
1. Handling an October surprise
With the first presidential debate later this week, it's interesting to note that came in only fourth. The potential for an "October surprise" is seen as the toughest challenge for the candidates. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: presidential politics strategy ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/26/2004 10:21:30 PM ----- BODY: "It pains me that people think he's a gargoyle, a troll under the bridge."

-- Effi Barry, quoted by the Washington Post, in support of her ex-husband, Marion. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: The Art of Distortion STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/26/2004 09:55:01 PM ----- BODY: "Distorting an opponent's words and selectively using facts and figures is nothing new in politics," the Boston Globe reports.

But President Bush "appears to be the worse offender this year, in terms of the number of misleading claims and the consistency of their appearance in his stump speech. A review of Bush's public statements in recent days reveals a number of areas where he is repeatedly using exaggerated claims and incomplete statistics, in an apparent attempt to fit his campaign themes." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush distorted rhetoric ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/26/2004 09:26:04 PM ----- BODY: The latest George Washington University Battleground Poll shows President Bush leading Sen. John Kerry 50% to 45%.

Here are the latest state polls: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Lehrer's Challenge STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/26/2004 09:03:00 PM ----- BODY: Political Wire asked James Fallows, national correspondent for The Atlantic and the author of a must-read preview of the Bush-Kerry debates, to give some advice to Thursday's debate moderator, Jim Lehrer:

"Lehrer's biggest challenge is to find a way to keep the candidates from getting by with the most programmed of their pre-canned answers. Since the rules don't allow the candidates to go at each other directly, he has to fill the void by stepping in to say, 'Well, what exactly do you mean by that?' And, 'How can you say that, when....?' There's a partisan skew in this duty, which is that George Bush is much more reliant on the unvarying, canned answer than John Kerry is. Still, Lehrer should act as if his job is to nudge the candidates off their prepared points when he can."
----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Jim Lehrer debates ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Preparing for the Debates STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/26/2004 08:52:47 PM ----- BODY: Time has a really interesting article on the pre-debate negotiations and how each candidate is preparing "When a race for President gets this close, no detail is too small to leave to chance."

"For months, the candidates have fired off stump-speech gibes, ridiculed each other through surrogates and watched independent political groups hijack the race with attacks the campaigns themselves wouldn't make. But all that was shadowboxing compared with what will happen over 90 min. Thursday night at the University of Miami in Coral Gables, Fla., when the two men will come within handshaking distance for the first time in the race."

The Washington Post sets up the challenge for Sen. John Kerry: "Beating Bush in these debates -- the first on Thursday at the University of Miami -- will be no easy matter, judging from the extensive record Bush and Kerry have compiled in televised face-offs. The president is an unorthodox debater but an effective one, especially against candidates schooled in the traditional rules of debate, such as Kerry."

A Chicago Tribune piece looks at the debates from the Bush campaign's perspective. Says pollster Matthew Dowd: "I think the next opportunity that John Kerry has to adjust this race is the debates."

The AP notes the debates "will pit" Bush's "folksy manner and big-picture brand of policymaking against" Kerry's "more cerebral outlook and nuanced world view. Each is a proven debater who knows, only too well, what personal pitfalls to avoid: Bush must stifle the smirk, for instance, and Kerry must cut short his rhetorical rambling." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry debate ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: In South Dakota, Daschle Leads Thune STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/26/2004 08:37:44 PM ----- BODY: A new Argus Leader poll shows Sen. Tom Daschle with a 5-point lead over John Thune in the South Dakota Senate race.

"But the poll also indicates a growing negative opinion toward both candidates... If voters think the negative scores will scare the candidates into being nicer to each other, it may instead be an omen that both sides will only turn up the heat." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Daschle Thune ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Democrats Lead in Attracting New Voters STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/26/2004 08:23:27 PM ----- BODY: The New York Times notes that a "sweeping voter registration campaign in heavily Democratic areas has added tens of thousands of new voters to the rolls in the swing states of Ohio and Florida, a surge that has far exceeded the efforts of Republicans in both states."

"While comparable data could not be obtained for other swing states, similar registration drives have been mounted in them as well, and party officials on both sides say record numbers of new voters are being registered nationwide. This largely hidden but deadly earnest battle is widely believed by campaign professionals and political scientists to be potentially decisive in the presidential election." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/24/2004 04:00:52 PM ----- BODY: Although neither President Bush nor Sen. John Kerry "has a clear advantage among registered voters, Bush holds an edge over Kerry among those likely to vote on Election Day," according to a new Marist College Poll. Among registered voters, Bush leads 47% to 45%. Among likely voters, Bush leads 50% to 44%.

An AP/Ipsos Public Affairs poll shows the president "holds a 17-point lead among men. And Bush and Kerry are tied among women, a traditionally Democratic group that now favors Bush on protecting the country."

Update: According to the latest Time magazine poll, Bush leads Kerry, 48% to 42%, among likely voters. As for next week's debate expectations: 44% expect Bush to win; 32% expect Kerry to win. "Among voters supporting Bush or Kerry now, 24% say that they might change their minds as a result of the debates."

Here are the latest state polls: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Kerry's Rapid Response STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/24/2004 01:27:25 PM ----- BODY: The Kerry campaign released a new television ad based on yesterday's statement from President Bush on Iraq: "I saw a poll that said the right track-wrong track in Iraq was better than here America."

It's increasingly clear that reports on Kerry's new message strategy were correct. It's Iraq, all the time. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry ad Iraq ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Campaign Trail 1948 STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/24/2004 10:49:33 AM ----- BODY: History Wire, by way of David McCullough's Truman, drops in on the 1948 presidential campaign exactly 56 years ago to the day.

Editor's Note: Another excellent book on that election is Zachary Karabell's The Last Campaign. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: presidential campaign 1948 ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Edwards Found STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/24/2004 10:42:36 AM ----- BODY: Craig Crawford says Sen. John Edwards is not missing in action on the campaign trail as we noted earlier.
"Of course, it is tough to find Edwards unless you are willing to stay in something other than a top-tier hotel. Even the biggest chains feature only their knock-off brands in the towns where he goes. Sometimes you have to settle for a Motel 6. But Edwards is going after the swing voters where they live. His recent Pennsylvania stops covered a suburban swath where nearly 20 percent of the state’s likely voters reside."
And Crawford is impressed: "From what I’ve seen of Edwards, he would have to set himself on fire to generate more heat in his campaign appearances." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: John Edwards ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Because He Could STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/24/2004 10:16:54 AM ----- BODY: Political consultant Dick Morris continues to torment former client Bill Clinton. Coming in October: Because He Could. ----- EXTENDED BODY: 0060784156 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Dick Morris ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Political Books Continue Surge STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/24/2004 09:48:01 AM ----- BODY: "As the presidential election heats up, the wave of political bestsellers that carried booksellers throughout the spring and summer is surging anew," the Wall Street Journal reports. "Retailers said readers remain eager for titles with current-events themes."

According to the article, America by Jon Stewart is doing especially well. Two other titles to watch this fall: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: political books ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/24/2004 09:39:11 AM ----- BODY: "Let's say you tried to have an election and you could have it in three-quarters or four-fifths of the country. But in some places you couldn't because the violence was too great. Well, so be it. Nothing's perfect in life, so you have an election that's not quite perfect. Is it better than not having an election? You bet."

-- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, quoted by Reuters, on holding Iraqi elections in January. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Rumsfeld Iraq elections ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Bush Competes in Maine STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/24/2004 08:59:56 AM ----- BODY: With new polls showing Maine and its four electoral votes up for grabs, President Bush held a quick rally "on the tarmac at Bangor International Airport," the Portland Press Herald reports.

"Recent polls suggest that Bush and Democrat John Kerry are in a virtual dead heat in Maine, one of several battleground states in an election that is seen as being too close to call." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Maine ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Is Nader Out of Money? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/24/2004 08:51:38 AM ----- BODY: A lawyer representing Ralph Nader "in his bid to get on Pennsylvania's ballot asked a court for permission to withdraw from the case Thursday, saying the campaign didn't have enough money to pay him," the AP reports.

Meanwhile, the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette reports the Arkansas Surpreme Court ordered "a stop Thursday to the printing of ballots for the Nov. 2 election while it determines whether Ralph Nader should be listed as a presidential candidate."

Ballot Access News has the latest tally of which ballots where Nader will be listed as a candidate. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Ralph Nader ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Is Kerry's New Message Working? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/24/2004 08:44:35 AM ----- BODY: Sen. John Kerry's aides believe he "has turned a corner with newly aggressive attacks on Bush's Iraq policies," the Washington Post reports.

The Boston Globe highlights Kerry's speech today in Philadelphia, in which "he will outline seven principles for fighting terrorism, including improved military and intelligence capabilities, a program to deny terrorists deadly weapons, a crackdown on terrorist financing, more attention to homeland security, and efforts to deny sanctuary to terrorists while building global alliances and promoting democracy in the Muslim world."

Meanwhile, "in a wide-ranging 75-minute interview with" the Columbus Dispatch, Kerry "said he initially sought to run a positive campaign and is confident voters will see through the effort to distort his Vietnam War service, his 19-year record in the Senate and his proposals." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry message ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Back to the Future STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/24/2004 08:42:56 AM ----- BODY: The New York Times looks at the similarities between Sen. John Kerry's 1972 and 2004 campaigns, noting that Kerry "is once again surrounded by many of the loyalists from that first campaign -- the only one he has ever lost. He is once again on the defensive over his Vietnam War service and his antiwar record, once again facing a Republican opponent who mocks him as an out-of-touch elitist, once again fighting to fulfill his campaign's early promise." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry congressional campaign ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Shakeup Predicted for Second Bush Term STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/24/2004 08:34:26 AM ----- BODY: The Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire speculates on a second Bush term: "Bush's fractious security team would break up: Aides expect Powell, Rumsfeld and Ridge to go. Rice may stay and prefer Pentagon to State, friends say. Ashcroft won't stay at Justice or Mineta at Transportation, and Commerce's Evans will return to Texas, aides predict. If Health Secretary Thompson goes, Medicare chief McClellan may step in. Zoellick covets move from Trade to Treasury."

But the newspaper's latest poll shows "voters favor changing more than people. Six in 10 say Bush 'should make major changes' in a new term; majorities in all age, gender, economic and racial subgroups agree. Just 9% of all voters want any Bush II to be 'a lot like' Bush I, and only 18% of Republicans do." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush second term shakeup ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Racketeering in Connecticut STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/24/2004 08:23:21 AM ----- BODY: Former Connecticut Gov. John Rowland's chief of staff, his son and one of the state's largest construction contractors "were charged Thursday in a federal racketeering indictment that accuses them of turning the governor's office into a criminal enterprise," the Hartford Courant reports.

"Rowland, who resigned July 1 amid legislative impeachment proceedings, is not among those charged, but he nonetheless emerges as an unnamed presence throughout the 54-page indictment." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Rowland racketeering ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/23/2004 11:27:42 PM ----- BODY: "I wouldn't be surprised if he appeared in the next month."

-- Teresa Heinz Kerry, quoted by the Phoenix Business Journal, "alluding to a possible" pre-election announcement of the capture of Osama bin Laden.

Update: Enter the Osama Sweepstakes. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: election October surprise ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: More Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/23/2004 10:22:39 PM ----- BODY: A CBS News poll finds one in four voters says their decision on who they'll choose for president "could hinge on what they see next Thursday." Meanwhile, in a head-to-head match among likely voters, President Bush leads Sen. John Kerry 51% to 42%.

Here are the latest state polls: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Rematch? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/23/2004 04:47:47 PM ----- BODY: Since Vanity Fair doesn't have a web site, Tom Goldstein got permission to post the must-read October 2004 Vanity Fair article on the 2000 Bush v. Gore election litigation including "never-before-reported details about what happened inside the Supreme Court." There are two PDF files available: Part 1 and Part 2.

Meanwhile, the New Republic's Jeffrey Rosen says we may be headed for a rematch of the legal issues surrounding Bush v. Gore even if one of the candidates is different.

Thanks to Rick Hasen. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush v. Gore ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: It's Still a Toss-Up STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/23/2004 03:51:40 PM ----- BODY: The latest Carville/Greenberg strategy memo is out:
"One week before the first presidential debate, the race has narrowed to a very competitive 2 points, 45 percent for John Kerry and 47 percent for George Bush. Frankly, that is where the race has stood for most of the year, with the exception of the spring when the race was tied and after the two conventions. For an incumbent president, 47 percent is barely at the edge of electability and represents Bush’s performance of four years earlier. Indeed, if this election were really held tomorrow, the country would be at risk of repeating the 2000 events."
In my mind, here's the key paragraph: "Very important to the dynamics of this race is the president’s weakening position on Iraq. By 56 to 42 percent, voters think the war was not worth the cost, and that majority has grown sharply in the last two weeks. A majority says the war in Iraq has made us less secure."

Since both men are now advisers to Kerry, this helps explain the basis for Kerry's new message.

The memo is based on the latest Democracy Corps poll (D) we reported yesterday. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Carville Greenberg ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: What Should a Junkie Do? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/23/2004 03:31:17 PM ----- BODY: Mystery Pollster offers much needed help to Political Wire readers: "So what are we to make of polling, given that it allows for a wide variance of results at this point in the election?"

Some would urge you not to pay any attention (see this excellent Christian Science Monitor piece), "but if you’re reading this, the odds are good you’re a political crack-head like me, long ago decided and badly addicted to following each twist and turn of the campaign."

We explored some of the reasons for the poll disparities earlier, but the best advice may be to remember "that the election will not be held today, that many voters are still considering their choices and that their answers to the horse-race question today may mislead us about what they are likely to do on November 2." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry polling variations ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: What Bush Haters Miss STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/23/2004 03:19:21 PM ----- BODY: People who dislike President Bush "can't understand why anyone would vote for" him. "But the same attributes that drive them crazy may also be the ones that attract people to the president," the Wall Street Journal's Gerald Seib argues.

"Issues probably matter less in a presidential race than many voters or political cognoscenti want to admit. Some political analysts think that just a third of voters, perhaps 40%, decide strictly on issues. At least as important is how voters feel about a presidential candidate...

"Voters want to like the candidate they are choosing for president, want to be comfortable seeing him or her on their television screen every night, and want to have a feeling that the candidate shares their basic values... And that's the intangible that explains why many will vote for Mr. Bush despite his blemishes -- and where he has an advantage over John Kerry." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush haters ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/23/2004 12:01:00 PM ----- BODY: According to the latest Fox News poll, President Bush is ahead of Sen. John Kerry by 45% to 43%. In a three-way race, Bush leads 46% to 42%, with Ralph Nader at just 1%. "The results are well within the poll's margin of error, and show just how divided the national electorate continues to be."

Here are the latest state polls: Update: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Act Blue STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/23/2004 11:15:11 AM ----- BODY: The Boston Phoenix runs an interesting profile of the duo behind ActBlue, a web site set up "to pump young Democrats’ energy and money into the political process."

"The site -- which takes its name from the designation of red (Republican) versus blue (Democratic) states -- tells you what congressional and Senate Democratic candidates are in close races, and then lets you donate money to those candidates with a few clicks." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: online fundraising ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Kerry Loses Voice STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/23/2004 10:55:46 AM ----- BODY: John Kerry "found himself speechless Wednesday, a serious predicament for a candidate for president," the Des Moines Register reports.

Laryngitis is forcing Kerry to the sidelines while running mate John Edwards steps in for a scheduled Iowa campaign appearance.

Says a spokesman: "Kerry strained his voice. He's going to be resting his voice for the debate." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry Laryngitis ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Season for Political Books Nears End STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/23/2004 09:14:43 AM ----- BODY: "The publishing industry is in high gear this election season, with piles of political books for sale." NPR reports "there's big money to be made in the run-up to the November election, but timing is key. A lot of those new glossy covers will be on the clearance table on Nov. 3." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: political books ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Laws on Felons Forbid Many Black Men to Vote STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/23/2004 09:04:34 AM ----- BODY: Two new studies found that "as many as one of every seven black men in Atlanta who have been convicted of a felony, and one of every four in Providence, R.I., cannot vote in this year's election," the New York Times reports.

"The studies, the first to look at felon disenfranchisement laws' effect on voting in individual cities, add to a growing body of evidence that those laws have a disproportionate effect on African-Americans because the percentage of black men with felony convictions is much larger than their share of the general population." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: felon voting ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Debate Preparation Dominates Weekend STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/23/2004 08:41:54 AM ----- BODY: President Bush and Sen. John Kerry "are leaving the campaign trail this weekend to cram for their first debate next Thursday, and both are choosing study locations that they hope will send a message," the Washington Post reports. Bush will "try to project an air of routine by retiring to his ranch" in Texas, while Kerry "will hold a more traditional debate camp, heading for Wisconsin because of its status as a swing state."

Meanwhile, the attempt "to require that the four moderators of the upcoming debates sign statements saying they've 'accepted' the rules drawn up by the campaigns is causing concern among some experts in journalism ethics," USA Today reports. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Rove Says Battleground is Shrinking STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/23/2004 08:37:06 AM ----- BODY: In an interview with editors of the Washington Times, Karl Rove said President Bush "is making significant inroads into 'blue' states... and solidifying his position in the 'red' states. He said the number of true battleground states, which he called 'purple,' is rapidly shrinking in the Bush-Kerry contest."

Meanwhile, the AP notes Kerry is "bowing to political realities" by cancelling television ads "in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and the perennial battleground of Missouri... The decision to shrink his political playing field reduces Kerry's strategic options -- at least for now -- in the homestretch of the campaign." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Karl Rove ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Colorado Electoral Reform Has Support STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/23/2004 08:31:03 AM ----- BODY: "A proposal to change how Colorado allocates its presidential electoral votes is winning by double digits, according to a Rocky Mountain News/News4 poll -- but a majority of voters don't feel strongly either way."

"Amendment 36 would scrap the traditional 'winner take all' system and award Colorado's electoral votes proportionally, based on popular vote. It would be the first such system in the nation, and it would apply immediately to the November presidential vote." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Colorado electoral votes ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Nader Threat Still Haunts Democrats STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/23/2004 08:17:06 AM ----- BODY: "The thorn in the Democrats' side, Ralph Nader, may not be quite as deep as four years ago," Al Hunt writes. "But it won't go away and still could prove deadly."

Hunt thinks Nader will be on the ballot in 36 states. At this point, he claims "there are only seven states where Mr. Nader will definitely not be listed: California, Maryland, Indiana, Georgia, Rhode Island, Oklahoma and Virginia. Among these, only Virginia conceivably could be a contested state by late October."

For the most up-to-date list, see Ballot Access News.

The latest Nader ballot news: The ballot challenges are driving up the cost of Nader's campaign. The Hill notes he "is raising far less money this year than he did in 2000, and his campaign is spending more than it is taking in... That could make it difficult for him to remain visible on the homestretch of the race to the White House."

Meanwhile, the Hartford Courant notes Nader stepped up his attacks on Democrats alleging "dirty tricks." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Ralph Nader ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: The Personality Factor STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/23/2004 12:32:39 AM ----- BODY: Does your personality determine who you will vote for? Take this 15 minute quiz and rate 40 traits that describe yourself, President Bush, and Sen. John Kerry. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry Bush personality ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Bush Campaign Exploits Huge Loophole STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/22/2004 08:21:24 PM ----- BODY: "President Bush's political team is orchestrating a vastly larger advertising campaign than thought possible under federal law, taking control of millions in Republican Party funds simply by inserting the phrase 'our leaders in Congress' in selected commercials," the AP reports.

"The GOP strategy had gone unnoticed for weeks by Sen. John Kerry and the Democrats, who now may abandon their own less-cost-efficient approach to advertising." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush campaign advertising strategy ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/22/2004 04:16:53 PM ----- BODY: The new Battleground 2004 Poll "continues to show an intensely divided electorate." The survey shows Bush leading Kerry 49% to 45% and finds that "80% of likely voters have made a definite choice for President." Billed as a "bipartisan" poll, Democratic and Republican analysis is available along with a graphical presentation of the results.

Update: The latest Democracy Corps poll shows Bush at 47%, Kerry at 45% and Ralph Nader at 5%. Graphs are also available.

Update II: The latest Economist poll has Kerry leading Bush 46% to 45%, with Nader at 1%.

Update III: The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Bush with a lead over Kerry -- 48% to 45% among registered voters, 50% to 46% among likely voters -- "but it's within the margin of error, and it's much smaller than some other recent post-GOP convention polls indicate."

Here are the latest state polls: Editor's Note: Make sure to see the new American Research Group state polls also released today. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Kerry Sinks in Futures Markets STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/22/2004 03:03:54 PM ----- BODY: Though the most recent polls and electoral tallies seem to show the presidential race tightening, the Iowa and Intrade political futures markets show Kerry falling fast. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: political futures markets ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Independent Streak STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/22/2004 02:14:04 PM ----- BODY: Former Maine Gov. Angus King, an independent who voted for George W. Bush in 2000, has endorsed Sen. John Kerry. According to the Portland Press Herald, King has not publicly endorsed a presidential candidate in the past quarter century, but this year he says "the case for change is overwhelming."

Meanwhile, another former independent governor, Minnesota's Jesse Ventura, tells the Minneapolis Star Tribune that "he doesn't plan to vote in the upcoming elections," because neither candidate shares his views on important issues. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Angus King Jesse Ventura ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Another Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/22/2004 01:55:58 PM ----- BODY: "I've never seen a man in my life I wanted to marry. And I'm gonna be blunt and plain, if he ever looks at me like that I'm going to kill him and tell God he died."

-- Rev. Jimmy Swaggart (see the video).

Update: The AP reports Swaggart apologized. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Jimmy Swaggart ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/22/2004 12:48:21 PM ----- BODY: "A year from now, I'll be very surprised if there is not some grand square in Baghdad that is named after President Bush."

-- Richard Perle, one year ago today, quoted by Catch. Here's the audio. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Richard Perle ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Using eBay to Retire Campaign Debt STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/22/2004 11:37:46 AM ----- BODY: Rep. Dennis Kucinich's shuttered presidential campaign "has taken to unloading its leftover memorabilia -- autographed, mind you -- on eBay," according to The Hill. "And why not? Apparently, people will pay good money for this stuff."

The items "range from a plush Beanie Baby doll to a seed packet to two passes to the Democratic National Convention. Each listing notes that it was paid for by Kucinich for President Inc. and that 'funds paid for this item will be counted as a political contribution to Kucinich for President, Inc., and thus are subject to contribution limits and FEC reporting requirements.' A spokesman said the auctions will help retire the campaign’s $170,000 debt." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: eBay campaign auctions ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: American Muslims Overwhelmingly Back Kerry STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/22/2004 10:58:33 AM ----- BODY: American Muslim voters "are overwhelmingly supporting" Sen. John Kerry over President Bush, 76% to 7%, according to a new American Muslim Poll. "This is a stark reversal of fortunes from the 2000 election for Mr. Bush." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Muslim vote ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Where The Race Stands STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/22/2004 09:56:45 AM ----- BODY: The American Research Group conducted polls in all 50 states. Here are the key findings: Prior to these polls, the Electoral Vote Predictor had the race with Kerry at 269, Bush at 253.

The Intrade State Futures show Bush at 284, Kerry at 222.

A new Zogby electoral tally shows Kerry at 264, Bush at 241. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: If America Were Iraq STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/22/2004 09:45:13 AM ----- BODY: Juan Cole explains what America would look like if it were in Iraq's current situation:

"Violence killed 300 Iraqis last week, the equivalent proportionately of 3,300 Americans. What if 3,300 Americans had died in car bombings, grenade and rocket attacks, machine gun spray, and aerial bombardment in the last week? That is a number greater than the deaths on September 11, and if America were Iraq, it would be an ongoing, weekly or monthly toll."

It's a devastating, must-read piece. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Iraq war ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: ACT Leaves Michigan STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/22/2004 09:35:47 AM ----- BODY: Americans Coming Together (ACT), "the political fund-raising group behind high-profile rock concerts meant to increase turnout for Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, is closing all 10 of its offices in Michigan and reassigning most of its 100 staff members to other battleground states," the Detroit Free Press reports.

"The shift comes as polls show Kerry still holding a lead ranging from 4 to 6 percentage points over President George W. Bush in Michigan, but with Kerry trailing in other states considered must-wins for the Democrat."

ACT staffers "are being deployed to other states, such as Florida, because Michigan's labor unions are experienced in massive get-out-the-vote efforts to back Democratic candidates." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Americans Coming Together ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Bartlett Faces Online Grilling STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/22/2004 09:07:08 AM ----- BODY: White House Communications Director Dan Bartlett appeared on Ask the White House yesterday, "an occasional question-and-answer forum the president's staff runs on the official White House website."

The Los Angeles Times notes Bartlett's appearance "featured a barrage of pointed questions... probably the toughest grilling that any administration official had encountered since 'Ask the White House' was launched in April 2003.

"The session ended after 12 questions, with Bartlett writing: 'Sorry I need to run. I enjoyed taking your questions.'" ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Dan Bartlett ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Debate Commission Will Not Sign Agreement STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/22/2004 08:37:27 AM ----- BODY: The Commission on Presidential Debates told the Bush and Kerry campaigns "that it could not accede to their unusual request that it sign by Wednesday their 32-page agreement detailing parameters for the debates," the New York Times reports.

The memorandum of understanding negotiated by the campaigns "includes an unusual level of prescriptions, particularly over the town-hall-style debate scheduled for Oct. 8, which some say undermines the idea of a voter-driven discussion. It states several times that audience participation, outside the forum questioners, is prohibited, and calls for visible timing lights, so viewers will know if someone is filibustering."

Democrats "involved in the process say was the Bush team's idea is having the commission and the moderators sign the document. Before, just the two campaigns signed." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: debate commission ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Just in Time for Halloween STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/21/2004 04:22:23 PM ----- BODY: President Bush masks have been outselling John Kerry masks by a 57% to 43% margin at BuyCostumes.com, according to CNN/Money.

"It's as unscientific as it gets, but the theory, according to some people in the costume business, is that the winner in every election since 1980 has been the candidate whose masks were most popular on Halloween." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry masks ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Young Voters Paying Attention STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/21/2004 04:14:49 PM ----- BODY: Young voters prefer Sen. John Kerry to President Bush by 46% to 40%, according to a new MTV Choose or Lose poll, "although they do not feel overwhelmingly positive toward either candidate."

"Younger voters are paying more attention to this campaign than at the same point in both the 2000 and 1996 presidential campaigns.

"In fact, the last time voters under 30 were paying this much attention at this point in the election was in 1992 when Bill Clinton challenged incumbent George H.W. Bush. Back then, 85 percent of younger votes said they were paying attention; this year, 83 percent say they are." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: young voters ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/21/2004 12:38:07 PM ----- BODY: "If you want to go backwards, you put it in 'R,' and if you want to go forward, you put it in 'D'"

-- Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA), quoted by the Des Moines Register. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Tom Harkin ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Chafee May Cast Write-In Vote STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/21/2004 12:27:21 PM ----- BODY: Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI), "a staunch critic of the Bush administration, told a group of reporters and editorial writers this morning that he planned to vote Republican in November -- but would consider writing in a candidate instead of voting for President Bush," the Providence Journal reports.

"Chafee's comments are a departure from his earlier statement at the the time of the GOP National Convention in New York earlier this month, when he said that he would support the Republicans in November." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Chafee Bush vote ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: The Campaign of 1896 STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/21/2004 10:46:31 AM ----- BODY: History Wire "takes you back to the fall of 1896 where William McKinley is waging a spirited campaign from....where else? His front porch." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: presidential campaign 1896 ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/21/2004 10:22:20 AM ----- BODY: President Bush "has regained some of his post-convention lead" in the latest IBD/TIPP Poll which shows him ahead of Sen. John Kerry, 46% to 43%, among likely voters. Bush has a one point lead among registered voters.

In the latest Zogby Battleground Poll, Bush "picks up more ground," but "there are signs of resilience in the Kerry campaign." In an electoral vote count based on these latest polls, Kerry would win, 297-241.

This contrasts with the Electoral Vote Predictor which has no candidate at the necessary 270 votes: Kerry 239, Bush 256. However, please note that today's map does not yet include many of the state polls we reported yesterday.

Here are the latest state polls: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: 527 Group Rules To Stay for Now STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/21/2004 10:12:22 AM ----- BODY: The Washington Post says the recent court ruling on campaign finance laws was "a rebuke of the FEC, which is already under fire from government watchdog groups for not adequately policing the campaign finance system... It could ultimately result in firm limits on how independent political groups function and the amount of money they can raise in future campaigns."

However, the the Los Angeles Times reports the agency will likely "appeal the judge's order" and FEC commissioners "believed their rules would remain in place for now."

Meanwhile, the Boston Globe notes that "in the six weeks until Election Day, the number of independent political ads by 527s is expected to skyrocket." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: FEC 527 groups ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Top 10 Bush Tax Proposals STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/21/2004 09:22:03 AM ----- BODY: According to CNN, Sen. John Kerry presented the "Top 10 Bush Tax Proposals" on the Late Show with David Letterman last night:

10. No estate tax for families with at least two U.S. presidents.

9. W-2 Form is now Dubya-2 Form.

8. Under the simplified tax code, your refund check goes directly to Halliburton.

7. The reduced earned income tax credit is so unfair, it just makes me want to tear out my lustrous, finely groomed hair.

6. Attorney General Ashcroft gets to write off the entire U.S. Constitution.

5. Texas Rangers can take a business loss for trading Sammy Sosa.

4. Eliminate all income taxes; just ask Teresa to cover the whole damn thing.

3. Cheney can claim Bush as a dependent.

2. Hundred-dollar penalty if you pronounce it "nuclear" instead of "nucular."

1. George W. Bush gets a deduction for mortgaging our entire future.
----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Kerry Fails to Stick to the Script STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/21/2004 09:20:27 AM ----- BODY: "After an August swoon, the Kerry campaign has an expanded, more experienced management team and a sharper, more aggressive message," the Wall Street Journal reports. "But one thing hasn't changed much: the candidate, and his meandering verbosity, developed over 20 years deliberating in the world's greatest deliberative body, the U.S. Senate."

"It is an unclear, indirect style that sometimes makes it hard for Mr. Kerry to connect with audiences and leaves his words open to parsing and ridicule from Republicans eager to portray him as vacillating and confused." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry stay on message ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: CBS Arranged Meeting with Lockhart STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/21/2004 09:00:34 AM ----- BODY: If the apology for using fake documents wasn't enough to tarnish CBS News, this certainly will: USA Today reports that the network "arranged for a confidential source to talk with Joe Lockhart, a top aide to John Kerry, after the source provided the network with the now-disputed documents about President Bush's service in the Texas National Guard."

"The network's effort to place" Bill Burkett "in contact with a top Democratic official raises ethical questions about CBS' handling of material potentially damaging to the Republican president in the midst of an election."

Meanwhile, the AP notes that "within the next few days, CBS News expects to name an independent panel of experts to scrutinize its reporting" of the story.

John Ellis advises the producer of the 60 Minutes piece: "Call your lawyer immediately. DO NOT, under any circumstances, allow CBS counsel to represent your interests." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: CBS News fake documents ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: The Debates Are On STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/21/2004 08:53:33 AM ----- BODY: The presidential debate schedule is set up pretty much along the lines originally recommended, but the the New York Times notes the Bush campaign "wanted foreign policy to be the topic of the first -- and typically the most-watched -- debate."

"Kerry also got something he wanted: three debates, although it is not clear whether the White House ever seriously contemplated forcing the plan to be scaled back to two."

The Boston Globe reports "a 32-page contract signed by both campaign managers, the debate commission, and the proposed moderators" governs "items large and small," including "such things as a stipulation that no crowd shots should be aired during the answers, cameras cannot show the opposing candidate's reactions while the other is speaking, and that Bush and Kerry... must shake hands at the outset of each debate."

Meanwhile, History Wire points us to Johnny Apple who "scrolls backward to recall signal moments of past debates." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: presidential debates ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Will Colorado Make Election Rocky? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/21/2004 08:39:25 AM ----- BODY: With this Boston Globe piece, it's clear the media is awakening to the Colorado referendum that "proposes to divide Colorado's nine electoral votes by percentage of popular vote rather than winner-take-all. This change could swing this year's election and... perhaps motivate other states to try to change their own ways of apportioning electoral votes after the Nov. 2 results are in."

Rick Hasen discusses whether the issue will end up in the Supreme Court. In a Los Angeles Times op-ed he says the referendum is a "debacle" in the making. "With such high stakes and uncertain law, we can definitely keep the Colorado scenario within the realm of possible election-day disasters in the making."

You should also listen to Hasen's interview with Marty Kaplan on Air America and check out previous Political Wire coverage of the issue: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Colorado electoral vote ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/20/2004 11:10:07 PM ----- BODY: "Recent voter surveys suggest that the solid support for Bush among Cuban Americans may be slipping a bit, especially among the young," the Los Angeles Times reports.

Here are the latest state polls: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/20/2004 04:41:22 PM ----- BODY: "At some point the Iraqis will get tired of getting killed and we’ll have enough of the Iraqi security forces that they can take over responsibility for governing that country and we’ll be able to pare down the coalition security forces in the country."

-- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Donald Rumsfeld Iraq ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Where's Edwards? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/20/2004 10:47:28 AM ----- BODY: Robert Novak notes that Sen. John Edwards has departed "from the usual pattern of vice presidential candidates appearing regularly on Sunday talk shows" and is "turning down all such invitations."

"The absence of the articulate, attractive Edwards cannot be explained by fear that he would be a liability on TV. Well-informed Democrats have speculated that John Kerry and Teresa Heinz Kerry have muzzled Edwards because they do not want him to overshadow the presidential candidate."

Meanwhile, the Washington Post finds Edwards on the campaign trail and notes that his strategists say his mandate "is to reach beyond the sign-waving partisans who show up at the rallies... They want him to garner the kind of favorable media that will reach independent and swing voters watching television in their living rooms or reading the morning paper over breakfast." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: John Edwards ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Busted STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/20/2004 10:34:29 AM ----- BODY: "An intern in Rep. Phil English’s (R-PA) office may have broken the world’s record for shortest time on the job, her budding career ruined by a marijuana arrest," Roll Call reports.

The intern "lasted all of two-and-a-half hours on her first day at work" last Thursday before Capitol Hill police "slapped handcuffs on the 27-year-old and took her to their processing facility." It turns out the X-ray machines at a security checkpoint uncovered a "green leafy substance" and "paraphernalia" in her bag.

Update: A Political Wire reader points out that blogger Ryan Sager broke this story last Friday. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Capitol Hill intern ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Judge Strikes Campaign Finance Rules STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/20/2004 10:29:50 AM ----- BODY: "A judge has struck down more than a dozen of the government's current rules on political fund raising with just weeks before Election Day, concluding federal regulators improperly weakened the nation's campaign finance law," the AP reports. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: campaign finance judge ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Nader's Traders STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/20/2004 10:09:10 AM ----- BODY: Vote-trading activists, who worry that Ralph Nader could sway the election again, are arranging to have Nader voters in swing states trade their votes with voters in more secure states. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, a group called VotePair.org will start today pairing voters.

As we noted earlier this year, there are other vote trading efforts as well.

Update: The AP reports a circuit judge ordered Nader off the Arkansas ballot today. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Nader vote trading ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: You Have the Power STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/20/2004 09:09:26 AM ----- BODY: Howard Dean's new book, You Have the Power: How to Take Back Our Country and Restore Democracy in America, is out this week.

The Washington Post summarizes the book in a review: "The essence of Dean's analysis is simple. His presidential campaign broke through suddenly in 2003, he writes, because so many voters had become so hungry for straight talk."

Dean has also written the forward to another interesting new book: Don't Think of an Elephant by George Lakoff. The book is billed as "an antidote to the last forty years of conservative strategizing and the right wing’s stranglehold on political dialogue in the United States." ----- EXTENDED BODY: 0743270134 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: You have the Power Howard Dean ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: CBS News Concludes it Was Misled STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/20/2004 08:52:56 AM ----- BODY: "After days of expressing confidence about the documents used in a 60 Minutes report that raised new questions about President Bush's National Guard service, CBS News officials have grave doubts about the authenticity of the material, network officials said last night," the New York Times reports.

"The officials, who asked not to be identified, said CBS News would most likely make an announcement as early as today that it had been deceived about the documents' origins."

Update: Dan Rather apologizes. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: CBS 60 Minutes documents fake ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: All Iraq All the Time STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/20/2004 08:47:30 AM ----- BODY: As we noted yesterday, the Kerry campaign turns its attention almost exclusively to Iraq this week. The Boston Globe notes that this morning, Sen. John Kerry "will give a major speech on Iraq in New York, seeking to drive the debate a day before Bush addresses the United Nations."

The DNC "is complementing Kerry's speech with a weeklong focus on what it says is Bush's 'lack of credibility' on Iraq," the AP reports. And the Los Angeles Times notes Kerry's campaign is "launching a television commercial that would argue that the expense of the war had deprived Americans of funding for education and healthcare."

Update: Kerry's speech is online. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry Iraq speech ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: The Candidate's Wife STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/20/2004 08:43:12 AM ----- BODY: The New Yorker profiles Teresa Heinz Kerry saying the senator's wife "is routinely cornier and more cordial than she is high-handed or inflammatory."

According to one Kerry aide intimate with Kerry's decision to run for president: "She said she knew what was involved, but, to be fair, no one does, and any thinking human being would have qualms. She certainly made it clear that she would be her own person, and we wondered if she was going to be perceived as a breath of fresh air or as a threat; if her straight speaking would motivate voters—women in particular—or if we were going to spend the campaign watching our back, tensed for a blowup. We called it the Teresa factor." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Teresa Heinz Kerry ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Baker's Dozen STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/20/2004 08:40:05 AM ----- BODY: According to advertising data gathered from Sept. 7 through late last week, the New York Times reports Sen. John Kerry is "running advertisements in just 13 states... He had pulled back in seven that he had tried to make competitive, including the crucial battleground of Missouri." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry battleground ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Tough to Track STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/20/2004 08:34:33 AM ----- BODY: The Wall Street Journal notes that "widely divergent poll results in recent days underscore a paradox of the 2004 presidential race: Despite all the surveys, it may be the toughest election in memory for anyone to track."

The main reasons "range from growing reluctance" for citizens "to participate in surveys to increasing reliance on cellphones rather than the land lines pollsters have long used to ensure demographic and geographic balance in surveys.

"But this year's bitter presidential contest has heaped on new challenges. They include an exceptionally close race and a polarized electorate that magnifies the consequence of different polling methods. In addition, unprecedented voter-mobilization drives by both parties make it especially tough for pollsters to say which voters probably will show up on Election Day." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: election polls ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Nader on Ballot in 27 States STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/20/2004 08:30:35 AM ----- BODY: "With the Florida Supreme Court's ruling that Ralph Nader could appear on the November ballot, Nader is now on the ballot in 27 states, his campaign said, and could appear on the ballot in more than a dozen other states, pending litigation," the New York Times reports.

Ballot Access News has a complete state-by-state listing.

Meanwhile, the New York Times reviews two Nader books: In Pursuit of Justice and The Good Fight. ----- EXTENDED BODY: 0060756047 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Ralph Nader ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Down to the Debates STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/19/2004 10:28:30 PM ----- BODY: USA Today says that the presidential election "that has lasted a year and more, cost a billion dollars and divided the nation into two unyielding camps is likely to be settled by this: Two or three 90-minute encounters in college auditoriums.

"The debates."

"Both men are skillful debaters, though in different ways -- Bush is straight-talking and strong, Kerry is knowledgeable and aggressive. They have perfect records: Each has prevailed against highly regarded opponents in every debate critical to his career."

Update: The Washington Post reports the campaigns have agreed to three debates, as was originally scheduled.

Update II: History Wire remembers the 16 year lapse in televised presidential debates after the historic Kennedy-Nixon debates in 1960. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: presidential debates ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Where Kerry Went Wrong STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/19/2004 10:15:36 PM ----- BODY: Jonathan Alter plays Monday morning quarterback and tells us where John Kerry -- and chief strategist Bob Shrum -- went wrong:
"Shrum's grand plan wasn't complicated. He figured that with most voters believing the country is on the 'wrong track,' all that Kerry had to do was establish his credibility as a potential commander in chief and he would win—hence the 'bio' convention. No need to respond directly to Bush ads sliming him for wanting to cut the same weapons systems that Bush's father cut. No need to explain how the Iraq war had been botched. No need to discredit Bush at all, because he was already thoroughly discredited."
Now, "with his strategy in tatters," Kerry "must now discredit Bush and simultaneously sell his own vision. This will be difficult for a candidate for whom straightforward English is often a second language. But it's hardly impossible, especially with Iraq melting down." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry Shrum strategy ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Kerry's New Message STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/19/2004 07:56:17 PM ----- BODY: In an attempt to "revive his campaign," Newsweek says Sen. John Kerry will focus almost exclusively on Iraq "by questioning Bush's credibility on the conflict, his management of postwar Iraq and the no-bid contracts won by his veep's old firm, Halliburton. Kerry is betting that the hard truths of Iraq will undercut Bush's soft-focus picture of a liberated nation, and ultimately the president's image as a war leader.

"It's a bet that Kerry was unwilling to make until this month. Not so long ago, Kerry's strategists planned to spend the fall talking about the economy and health care, thinking they had proved their candidate's national-security credentials in Boston. They also planned to stay positive, shunning political attacks in the belief that slime could alienate swing voters. But that was before Kerry's August swoon, and an influx of fresh faces -- a mix of Boston loyalists and Clintonites -- at the top of the Democrat's team."

The Washington Post says there is a "two-phase plan to refocus the debate." Kerry aides "say he will first challenge the president's optimistic assessment of conditions in Iraq and then draw a sharp contrast with Bush over getting the United States out of the country within four years."

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal notes Bush "is moving to control the Iraq debate with a weeklong effort that signals U.S. resolve to see through that country's chaotic experiment in democracy while tapping the power of incumbency for his re-election campaign." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry Bush Iraq ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/19/2004 10:56:50 AM ----- BODY: With just 44 days to go before the election, President Bush continues to hold a slim lead over Sen. John Kerry, 46% to 43%, according to a new Zogby America poll.

Here are the latest state polls: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Rove Also Avoided the Draft STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/18/2004 05:08:21 PM ----- BODY: "Except for a lapse of several months, Selective Service records show presidential adviser Karl Rove escaped the draft for nearly three years at the height of the Vietnam War using student deferments," the Salt Lake Tribune reports.

According to a friend, Rove's opposition to the Vietnam War "was political. He considered the conflict a 'political skirmish that was not being properly administered.'" ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Karl Rove Vietnam War ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Buckhead Unmasked STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/18/2004 03:57:56 PM ----- BODY: The Los Angeles Times identifies the person formally known as "Buckhead" who first claimed documents used in the 60 Minutes story on President Bush's national guard service were fakes. And it wasn't "an expert in typography or typewriter history, as some first thought. Instead, it was the work of Harry W. MacDougald, an Atlanta lawyer with strong ties to conservative Republican causes who had helped draft the petition urging the Arkansas Supreme Court to disbar President Clinton after the Monica S. Lewinsky scandal."

Meanwhile, another Los Angeles Times piece says CBS News believed the documents were real when Dan Bartlett, the White House communications director, "had no quarrel with the authenticity of the documents." The Washington Post says President Bush himself looked at the documents. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: 60 Minutes documents fake ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Looking Back STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/18/2004 09:29:15 AM ----- BODY: Beginning with the 1960 presidential race, History Wire "will drop in on presidential campaigns of yore at the same stage as the 2004 campaign is in, to learn how candidates then were grappling with challenges of the hour." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: presidential campaign history ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/18/2004 12:02:53 AM ----- BODY: A new CBS News Poll finds President Bush's "post-convention bounce remains intact" for at least another week. Bush leads Kerry 50% to 41% among registered voters.

Donkey Rising argues the poll results actually show the race is even, "if you weight their data to conform to the 4 point Democratic party ID lead which we have good reason to believe is the underlying distribution in the voting electorate."

Noting the disparity in recent polls, the New York Times says experts say such differences "are not unusual at this stage of a campaign and reflect both a volatile electorate and methodological differences between the polling organizations."

Josh Marshall argues the disparities "can only be explained by different organizations using quite distinct polling models."

Here are the latest state polls: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Florida Court Puts Nader on Ballot STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/17/2004 11:00:49 PM ----- BODY: The Florida Supreme Court ruled 6-1 that Ralph Nader "can be on the state's November ballot as the Reform Party presidential candidate," the AP reports.

"The court's ruling met a Saturday deadline for mailing 25,000 ballots to overseas voters, most of them military personnel." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Ralph Nader ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Pilot a Swift Boat STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/17/2004 10:57:00 PM ----- BODY: "A new downloadable video game gives gamers the chance to play then-Lt. John Kerry and lead the Swift Boat campaign in the Mekong Delta for which he received a Silver Star in 1969 during the Vietnam War," USA Today reports.

"Expected by the end of the month, the game is the latest realistic combat mission from game developer Kuma Reality Games. Players can test out all the Windows PC-based missions free for seven days, then pay $9.99 monthly. Some of the newest missions are based on U.S. military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: swift boat video game ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Kerry Pulls Back Internet Ads STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/17/2004 10:54:34 PM ----- BODY: "Following a July online ad run of over 72.5 million impressions, the John Kerry For President campaign practically shut down its Web advertising efforts in August, running a relatively paltry total of 71,000 impressions," according to Media Daily News. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry Internet ads ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: The Problem with Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/17/2004 03:34:15 PM ----- BODY: For those of you tired of reading all the polls these days, Jimmy Breslin argues they're worthless anyway.

"If you want a poll on the Kerry-Bush race, sit down and make up your own. It is just as good as the monstrous frauds presented on television and the newspaper first pages."

Update: Pollster John Zogby sent us an email to clarify his comments in the Breslin article:
First of all, I still conduct telephone polls. The reality is that polling on the telephone is becoming more difficult; caller id and the widespread use of cell phones are affecting response rates. That said, I feel that representative samples can still be achieved on the phone.

Second, I stand by both my telephone and interactive results. I have yet to see evidence that the situation has gotten to the point where telephone surveys are unusable, and I am equally confident that my interactive surveys have reached a point where they are valid.

Third, cell phones do pose a problem for the polling industry, but not to the level Mr. Breslin feels. It is illegal for polling firms to call cell phones, coupling that with the rapidly increasing rate of cell phone use and the gradual decrease of land lines, the polling industry will face a crisis within a decade. For now, the 170 million cell phones are largely duplicates and triplicates of landlines. Also, many of the people Mr. Breslin cites as missing because of cell phones, are notoriously difficult to each, no matter the circumstance.

To clarify, my statements to Mr. Breslin were aimed at pointing to growing problems in the industry. As an industry, we must adapt to the future or face extinction, because the telephone will not always be a valid method of conducting random samples.
----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: polls ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: A Travesty of Democracy STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/17/2004 03:22:33 PM ----- BODY: The Economist notes that "if democracy means multi-party competition at the grass roots, America is not a full democracy in elections to the House of Representatives."

"The sheer uncompetitiveness of most House races takes one's breath away. In 2002, four out of five of them were won by more than 20 points. The average margin was a stunning two to one, meaning some races had even bigger margins. Last time, 200 races had margins of 40 points of more and 80 were uncontested. So far this year, the uncontested figure is 68. In 2002, just four incumbents lost to challengers at the polls (another four lost in primaries). North Korea might be proud of the incumbent re-election rate: 99%. More than nine in ten Americans live in districts that are, in practice, one-party monopolies."

Larry Sabato has a good overview of the House races: "The Crystal Ball, though sad to put on hold its tradition of a Nifty Fifty set of exciting congressional races, is proud to unveil this year's look at the races most worthy of our consideration: a group of the thirty truly competitive races across the country we've dubbed the Dirty Thirty." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: House of Representatives uncompetitiveness ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Failing Grade STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/17/2004 10:52:24 AM ----- BODY: Salon profiles a Harvard Business School professor who "recalls George W. Bush not just as a terrible student but as spoiled, loutish and a pathological liar."

Says Yoshi Tsurumi: "He would even deny saying something he just said 30 seconds ago. He was famous for that."

The Weekly Standard notes Tsuraumi also makes an appearance in Kitty Kelley's new book, The Family. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Harvard Business School ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: What About Iraq? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/17/2004 09:58:42 AM ----- BODY: Craig Crawford notes the "gaping hole in the rhetoric of the 2004 campaign. Neither side has offered detailed plans for what is arguably the nation’s most pressing problem: how to end the near-daily loss of American lives in Iraq."

"So far, we can only hope Bush and Kerry have secret plans to end the war. That, at least, would be better than no plan at all."

Update: Ryan Lizza notes that while the national guard audience was not exactly friendly yesterday, Kerry "regained the offensive in this campaign for the first time in weeks by hitting Bush's real weak spot: his refusal to acknowledge what is happening on the ground in Iraq." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry Bush Iraq ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/17/2004 09:10:10 AM ----- BODY: "Kerry's windsurfing, going skiing, and his sports equipment is too tight. I think he's too fit. He's got one of those stomachs where the shirt goes straight down into his pants -- and Americans like their politicians with a bit more flab on them."

-- Vanity Fair's Graydon Carter, quoted by the New York Daily News, on Sen. John Kerry. Carter is also the author of the new book, What We've Lost. ----- EXTENDED BODY: 0374288925 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Graydon Carter ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Shrum Losing Influence STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/17/2004 09:05:32 AM ----- BODY: "A new center of power has emerged inside Sen. John Kerry's presidential campaign, with several veteran Democratic operatives moving quickly to consolidate their influence and effectively take over the nominee's daily message and strategy in the six weeks until the election," the Washington Post reports.

The biggest development: "Robert Shrum, the most powerful voice inside the campaign for much of the year, has seen his influence diminish significantly in the shake-up."

Nonetheless, the campaign still "dismisses the notion that a 'shake-up' has taken place." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Robert Shrum Kerry campaign ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Overseas Vote Seen as Critical STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/17/2004 09:03:07 AM ----- BODY: "Both parties are pushing overseas voter registration, including that of military personnel," the Los Angeles Times reports.

"The Bush campaign is deeply aware that military absentee ballots may have helped swing Florida -- and the election -- for Bush in 2000. Democrats, meanwhile, are predicting that more of the military vote will go their way this November because long tours of duty and heavy casualties have antagonized a growing number of military families." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: overseas vote ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: The Secret to Bush's Success STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/17/2004 08:45:18 AM ----- BODY: Ryan Lizza takes himself into the "alternative universe" that is the Bush campaign and notes "the key to Bush's success is that, on the stump, he is a master at turning his simple speaking style into a political virtue. Indeed, if you listen to him carefully, much of Bush's case for a second term rests on the idea that he speaks more clearly than John Kerry... Bush is obsessed with his plainspoken image. If he accidentally uses what he regards as a complicated word, he catches himself and defines it for his audience." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush plain spoken style ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/17/2004 08:24:29 AM ----- BODY: Although other recent national polls (see here and here) find the presidential race getting closer, a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll shows President Bush "has surged to a 13-point lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters... The 55% to 42% match-up is the first statistically significant edge either candidate has held this year."

Al Hunt has a must-read piece for poll watchers and leaves us with this advice: "If almost all the election eve polls show one candidate up four or five points or more, take it to the bank. But if most show the race within a couple of points, plan on staying up late election night."

Here are the latest state polls: Here are the latest electoral vote tallies: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry polls ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Lawyers Preparing for Battle STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/17/2004 08:17:48 AM ----- BODY: "The two major political parties are reserving thousands of dollars and platoons of lawyers to stand ready for a possible replay of the 2000 recount battle," the Wall Street Journal reports.

"No one is publicly predicting that this year's election will end up in the courts like the 2000 presidential election." But "complications this year -- including an expected surge in early voting, new elections systems in some areas and large numbers of military voters overseas -- add to potential areas of conflict."

Rick Hasen's blog is one of the best places to follow the pre-election legal jockeying. Highly recommended. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: legal challenges election ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Romney to Blitz Massachusetts Democrats STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/17/2004 08:13:48 AM ----- BODY: Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) "is planning an unprecedented television advertising blitz that will use his image to turn local legislative races into a statewide referendum on reform, taxes and statehouse cronyism -- part of a broad GOP strategy to cut into Democrats' overwhelming legislative majority," the Boston Globe reports.

Strategists says Republicans will "also employ direct mail campaigns, mount an extensive grass-roots operation, and employ a computerized voter identification system to target 20 to 30 legislative districts where Romney ran strong in 2002, and where local candidates have demonstrated they have a chance of beating the Democratic incumbents." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Mitt Romney ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: First Lady Stays on Campaign Trail STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/16/2004 09:28:28 PM ----- BODY: The Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire notes that while First Lady Laura Bush "said she might campaign with her husband after Republicans' convention, plans are to keep her out on her own up to November... Apart, the two Bushes cover twice the ground; she is in West Virginia, Pennsylvania and South Carolina today."

However, during Mrs. Bush's New Jersey speech yesterday, "a woman was arrested for demanding to know why her son was killed in Iraq. The official White House transcript of the speech notes applause 39 times, laughter once and four chants of 'Four more years,' but not the interruption." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: First Lady Bush ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Chief of Staff STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/16/2004 09:19:48 PM ----- BODY: The Chief of Staff to the President "handles the myriad of day to day details that keep the White House running and is also often the President's closest confidante and gatekeeper -- anyone who wants access to the Oval Office goes through the Chief of Staff." Now, Marvin Watson, President Lyndon Johnson's top White House aide, has published his memoirs filled with insights into working for the president. The book is titled, appropriately enough, Chief of Staff. ----- EXTENDED BODY: 0312285043 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Chief of Staff Marvin Watson ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Anti-Bush DVDs Flood Market STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/16/2004 08:33:35 PM ----- BODY: With the huge commercial success of Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11, two authors highly critical of the Bush administration have turned their books into political documentaries. All three films, including Moore's, will be out on DVD in the next couple weeks.

Bush's Brain by James Moore and Wayne Slater (authors of Bush's Brain: How Karl Rove Made George W. Bush Presidential) is a documentary on White House political advisor Karl Rove, "the most powerful political figure America has never heard of."

Bush Family Fortunes by Greg Palast (author of The Best Democracy Money Can Buy) is based on reporting done for the BBC on the Florida recount, the Bush family's ties to Saudi Arabia, and the Iraq war. ----- EXTENDED BODY: B0002T7YWQ ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: anti Bush DVDs ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/16/2004 08:30:13 PM ----- BODY: A survey by the New Democrat Network finds President Bush leading Sen. John Kerry, 49% to 45%, but also finds some very troubling news for Democrats:
"Likely voters believe that the Democratic Party would do a better job in handling the major domestic issues of the day, but a majority do not believe that the Democratic Party or its standard-bearer has made clear its agenda for the future. 56 percent of voters believe that the GOP has a clear agenda for the future; only 45 percent say that the Democratic Party has one."
However, a new Harris Interactive poll shows Kerry leading Bush 48% to 47% among likely voters nationwide. "The poll also found that a slender 51% to 45% majority doesn't believe that Mr. Bush deserves to be re-elected."

Update: A new Pew Research Center Poll "finds that Bush's edge over" Kerry "has eroded." Bush holds a slight lead, 47% to 46%. In addition, "the size of the swing vote has increased slightly since the summer, rather than contracting as it typically does as the election approaches."

Here are the latest state polls: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: More State Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/16/2004 03:09:48 PM ----- BODY: The American Research Group is now polling the race for president in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: state polls ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: The Clock is Ticking STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/16/2004 10:49:18 AM ----- BODY: History Wire notes that in a hotly-contested presidential campaign, Democrats and Republicans may be "tempted to do something, anything... to give their campaigns a shot of adrenaline heading into the home stretch. Although ultimately unsuccessful, one of the most intriguing political Hail Marys of the last century took place on September 30, 1968 in Salt Lake City."

The similarities between the current presidential race and the Humphrey/Nixon campaign are striking. And while some may say there's still plenty of time left, "students of history realize it takes time to turn a lumbering campaign around, and the election is only 47 days away." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: october surprise ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/16/2004 09:23:52 AM ----- BODY: "Clothing is wonderful, but let them go naked for a while, at least the kids."

-- Teresa Heinz Kerry, quoted by the AP, urging hurricane relief volunteers to send water and generators before clothing. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Teresa Heinz Kerry ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Where's Edwards? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/16/2004 09:12:44 AM ----- BODY: "At a time when Vice President Dick Cheney has been mocking and pummeling" Sen. John Kerry "across the country, reveling in the traditional fighting role of a vice-presidential nominee," Sen. John Edwards "has adopted a decidedly less belligerent and lower-profile stance," the New York Times reports.

"Only in the last few days, with criticism percolating among Democrats, has he become louder in taking on the administration." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: John Edwards visibility ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Civil War Inside Kerry Campaign? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/16/2004 09:06:46 AM ----- BODY: Veteran Democratic adviser Tony Coelho claims "there is a civil war going on in" Sen. John Kerry's campaign "that has produced a weak, inconsistent message and election strategy," the Washington Times reports. "Coelho said the Kerry campaign has been seriously hampered by internal squabbling between" campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill and political strategist Bob Shrum.

Coehlo also spoke to CBS News: "There is nobody in charge and you have these two teams that are generally not talking to each other."

Meanwhile, Kos picks up on a fact that will anger Democratic activists: "Shrum (and his firm's partners) will be getting a $5 million cut for Kerry's media buys (another $3 million will go to other media firms used by the campaign). While some of that is undoubtedly expenses for creating new ads, the vast majority is not."

For more, this week's New Yorker calls Shrum "Kerry's Brain." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Why They Avoid the Media STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/16/2004 09:02:59 AM ----- BODY: "Advisers to both candidates say potential gaffes are not the reason they avoid news conferences -- rather it is the risk of losing control of the scripted daily message," the Washington Post reports.

In the Kerry camp, the New York Times notes former Clinton White House press secretary Joe Lockhart "has taken charge of much of its daily communications... The reshuffled leadership team is tackling the campaign's most glaring, longstanding problem, the lack of a consistent message, and broadening its target audience well beyond the sliver of the electorate who are still undecided." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry Bush daily message ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Debate Commission Sets Deadline STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/16/2004 08:54:36 AM ----- BODY: The Commission on Presidential Debates "told the campaigns they must settle their differences over the fall debate schedule by Monday if the group is to meet a variety of logistical deadlines," the Washington Post reports. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: presidential debates ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Nader Dispute Moves to Florida High Court STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/16/2004 08:28:33 AM ----- BODY: The Florida Supreme Court "snatched the ball from the partisan players fighting over Ralph Nader's status on Florida's presidential ballot, ordering elections officials not to send out absentee ballots until the justices rule on the case," the Miami Herald reports. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Ralph Nader Florida ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: America (The Book) STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/16/2004 08:23:14 AM ----- BODY: A New York Times review concludes the "mock textbook" from the troublemakers at The Daily Show With Jon Stewart "is a side-splitting guide to our political life."

America (The Book) can be silly, and sometimes absurd, but most "is the devil's own comedic handiwork, a side-splitting guide to the abuses and absurdities built into our political processes and institutions." The book "can be opened at random, the way it will be in college dormitories when it becomes much loved and indispensable. But it can also be read straight through, thanks to sustained clever writing and a smart, durable premise." ----- EXTENDED BODY: 0446532681 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Jon Stewart America ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Inside the Kerry Campaign STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/15/2004 10:28:23 PM ----- BODY: Al Hunt takes the pulse inside the Kerry campaign headquarters: "The conventional wisdom that John Kerry has miscalculated badly and fallen dangerously behind is yesterday's news, as the fundamentals of the presidential contest haven't changed and the coming cycle will expose President Bush's vulnerabilities."

But he notes it "has been greeted skeptically by other Democratic politicians and the press, but they say it privately as well as publicly now."

Adds strategist Tad Devine: "I would say unequivocally, we will have just as much money as they do, maybe a little more... We won't have to face the trade-offs... having to choose between states like Ohio and Florida." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry strategy ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/15/2004 09:05:03 PM ----- BODY: The ICR Presidential Tracking Poll shows President Bush leading Sen. John Kerry 48% to 44%.

Update: The latest Economist poll shows President Bush clinging to a small lead over Sen. John Kerry, 47% to 46%.

Update II: Democracy Corps (D) is now releasing weekly surveys. The latest finds the candidates' convention bounces "have eroded, and the race has returned to the default positions Bush and Kerry have held for much of the year. In the 3-way vote, Bush leads Kerry 47% to 45%, which is essentially unchanged from our poll last week."

Here are the latest state polls: Update III: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/15/2004 08:41:26 PM ----- BODY: "We established to our satisfaction, which is a high standard, that the memos are accurate or we wouldn't have put them on television, we wouldn't have done the report. There was a great deal of corroborating evidence from people in the position to know about the accuracy of the memos."

-- CBS News President Andrew Heyward, quoted by Reuters, on the controversial documents used in a recent 60 Minutes report. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Andrew Heyward ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Senate Leader Race Under Way STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/15/2004 01:41:48 PM ----- BODY: "The decision by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) to retire at the end of the 109th Congress has prompted two of his top deputies to begin quietly soliciting support from colleagues in anticipation of a leadership race that is not scheduled to take place until 2006," Roll Call's Mark Preston reports.

Majority Whip Mitch McConnell (R-KY) "began meeting personally with GOP Senators several months ago to make the case that he is best qualified to succeed Frist." Republican Conference Chairman Rick Santorum (R-PA) "began private conversations with GOP Senators last week to express a similar interest in being the next Republican leader." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Frist Majority Leader ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Both Campaigns Target Character STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/15/2004 09:05:48 AM ----- BODY: Sen. John Kerry "ratcheted up his character-based critique of President Bush... turning health-care forums... into attacks on his opponent's honesty," the New York Times reports.

The Washington Post notes Kerry's message "speaks to a larger point" he "believes he has to make to win, which is that Bush has misled the public on issues from war to health costs."

As for Bush, the Washington Post reports he "ignored a fresh round of questions about his service in the Texas Air National Guard and, instead, repeatedly questioned the character of" Kerry at a National Guard convention. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry character ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Kerry's Battleground Shrinking STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/15/2004 08:51:13 AM ----- BODY: "In the first full week after the Republican convention," President Bush "blitzed 17 states with television commercials in an effort to capitalize on his momentum in battlegrounds from coast to coast," the Los Angeles Times reports. "At the same time," Kerry "spent his TV dollars in a much narrower pool of eight crucial states."

Meanwhile, the AP notes Bush "has been solidifying his gains in states that once were dead heats, forcing both parties' campaigns to alter strategies as the electoral battleground shrinks... Kerry is struggling to stay afloat in some hotly contested states, including Missouri, Wisconsin and Ohio, where polls show Bush pulling ahead."

The Detroit Free Press has a little good news for Kerry: "Michigan and its 17 electoral votes are still in play, but there are subtle and concrete signs that the Bush and Kerry campaigns are putting more of their time and money elsewhere as Kerry seems to have an upper hand in the state." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry Bush battleground ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Forgery Charges Dog CBS News STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/15/2004 08:44:58 AM ----- BODY: "As a political issue, it seems doubtful that many swing voters will make their final decision on the coming election based on the authenticity of certain documents about President George Bush's National Guard service," the Wall Street Journal reports.

"But for anchor Dan Rather, CBS News's valuable 60 Minutes franchise and the news divisions of the broadcast networks, the supposedly 30-year-old photocopies are a big story that isn't showing signs of going away."

The New York Times notes the secretary "for the squadron commander purported to be the author of now-disputed memorandums" said that "she never typed the documents and believed that they are fakes." Nonetheless, "she also said they accurately reflect the thoughts of the commander... and other memorandums she typed for him about" Bush.

The Washington Post reports "two document experts retained by CBS News for the disputed 60 Minutes story" said "they had warned the program that the memos involved had significant problems but that their concerns were not heeded."

Update: Here's an interesting twist. A Dallas Morning News article says the former secretary believes the documents are fake "but that they reflect documents that once existed." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: document forgery 60 Minutes ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: What Kerry Needs to Do STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/14/2004 08:11:51 PM ----- BODY: The latest Democracy Corps strategy memo from James Carville and Stan Greenberg notes "there is striking stability in the essential structure of the presidential race. Voters still want change, they are upset with Bush's direction on Iraq and the economy, and they have serious doubts about Bush. And they respond strongly to Kerry's vision, defeating Bush's convention message by 7 points which is 10 points better than the race between Bush and Kerry."

The bottom line: "Despite the changes of August, Kerry’s message for America is still significantly stronger than the Bush message, which should be taken up by progressives with considerable confidence in its efficacy... Amidst the fog of conflicting poll numbers, convention bounces and many distractions, voters remain ready to respond to strong Democratic campaigns in 2004." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: James Carville Kerry strategy ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/14/2004 02:14:45 PM ----- BODY: Slate's Election Scorecard is yet another place to keep track of the latest presidential election polls and predictions. Bottom line: If the election were held today, Bush would get 307 electoral votes to Kerry's 231.

The Electoral Vote Predictor has Bush 291, Kerry 238.

Josh Marshall notes the many reasons Bush has taken a lead in the polls, "but all of them amount to the same thing: the president's campaign has managed to take Iraq out of the election debate."

Here are the latest state polls: Editor's Note: Before I get an avalanche of email, let me note that Strategic Vision does polling primarily for Republican candidates. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry polls ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Kerry Hires McCurry STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/14/2004 02:12:56 PM ----- BODY: Sen. John Kerry "hired Bill Clinton's former press secretary, Mike McCurry, adding yet another adviser who worked for the two-time Democratic presidential winner," the AP reports.

"McCurry will travel with Kerry as a senior adviser for the final weeks of the campaign." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Mike McCurry ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Battleground Shift? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/14/2004 09:20:21 AM ----- BODY: "For all the hoopla over Ohio as a political battleground, strategists on both sides of the presidential campaign are increasingly looking northward toward the Great Lakes region, eyeing three states -- Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan -- as crucial in a race that for now at least appears to be trending toward" President Bush, the Boston Globe reports.

Update: A Political Wire reader notes one reason for the shift may be a soon-to-be-released Strategic Vision (R) poll in Ohio that shows Bush with a 10% lead -- 52% to 42% among likely voters. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: battleground states Ohio ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Barry Attempts Comeback STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/14/2004 09:09:32 AM ----- BODY: "One of the biggest races to watch" in today's Washington, D.C. primary is in Ward 8, NBC4 reports. "Voters in that section of the city will decide whether former mayor Marion Barry will make another political comeback." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Marion Barry ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Rather Again Tries to Defend Documents STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/14/2004 09:03:42 AM ----- BODY: On The CBS Evening News last night, Dan Rather presented "even more experts to attest to the authenticity of several documents purportedly dating back to the early 1970's suggesting that" George W. Bush "received favorable treatment in the Guard," the New York Times reports.

Meanwhile, "even inside CBS News there was deepening concern" over the allegations that the documents used for a recent 60 Minutes broadcast were forged. "Some Mr. Rather's colleagues said in interviews that they were becoming increasingly anxious for him to silence the critics by proving the documents' validity and as new questions about their origin arose. Most declined to be quoted by name."

Meanwhile, the Washington Post notes "the lead expert retained by CBS News to examine disputed memos" said "that he examined only the late officer's signature and made no attempt to authenticate the documents themselves." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: 60 Minutes documents ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/14/2004 08:59:11 AM ----- BODY: "This is a war we're in. The way you win wars is that you start fires that will consume the enemy."

-- Illinois U.S. Senate candidate Alan Keyes (R), as quoted by the Chicago Tribune, explaining that his campaign "has been unfolding according to plan and likened it to a war in which lighting the 'match' of controversy was needed to ignite grass-roots voters." Keyes went on to say he plans to make "inflammatory" comments "every day, every week" until the election. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Alan Keyes ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Nader Will Be On Florida Ballot STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/13/2004 10:57:16 PM ----- BODY: Ralph Nader's name "can appear on Florida ballots for the election, despite a court order to the contrary, Florida's elections chief told officials on Monday in a move that could help President Bush in the key swing state," Reuters reports.

"The Florida Democratic Party reacted with outrage, calling the move 'blatant partisan maneuvering' by Gov. Jeb Bush, the president's younger brother, and vowed to fight it." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Ralph Nader ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/13/2004 10:38:12 PM ----- BODY: The first AP/Ipsos poll conducted after the Republican convention shows that President Bush pulled "significantly ahead" of Sen. John Kerry for the first time, 51% to 43%. The pollster notes "if Kerry wants to pull ahead of the incumbent, he would need to mobilize his soft supporters -- people who are generally the least likely to be relied upon to come out on election day -- less well-educated, working class women, and especially those in the South."

However, a new IBD/TIPP poll puts Bush and Kerry "in a dead heat, suggesting Bush's post-convention bounce is quickly disappearing." Among registered voters, Kerry holds a two-point edge over Bush, 45% to 43%. Among likely voters, both men are tied at 46%.

Here are the latest state polls: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/13/2004 04:09:16 PM ----- BODY: "I want to run for the Senate from Tennessee. Not now, but when I'm 50, when music dies down a little bit. I know lots of artists and actors have those delusions of grandeur, but ever since I was a kid, it's been of interest to me."

-- Country singer Tim McGraw, 37, quoted by Time. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Tim McGraw Senate ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Daschle Slips in South Dakota STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/13/2004 04:02:09 PM ----- BODY: In his bid for re-election, Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) "has fallen slightly behind" former Rep. John Thune (R-SD), according to the latest Rasmussen Reports survey. Thune currently holds a 50% to 47% lead, though that is inside the poll's 4.5 point margin of error. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Daschle Thune ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Rome Wasn't Burnt in a Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/13/2004 01:57:55 PM ----- BODY: MSNBC talk show host and former Rep. Joe Scarborough takes aim at some of his former colleagues in his new book, Rome Wasn't Burnt in a Day.

According to Roll Call, the Republican "who gets the harshest treatment is former House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-Texas). The Floridian paints Armey as a sneaky traitor who helped stage the coup against former Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) in 1997, then ratted the whole swarm out to Gingrich when he realized that he would not be assuming the throne."

Says Scarborough: "He supported our efforts and then after he found that we didn’t want him to be the next Speaker, he claimed to have a religious conversion and stabbed us all in the back." ----- EXTENDED BODY: 0060749849 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Joe Scarborough ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Illinois Considers Selling Name STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/13/2004 09:16:55 AM ----- BODY: Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) "is considering selling, to a yet-unchosen beverage company, the rights to Illinois' name," the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. "No other state has ever done it."

"The concept of designating an 'official state beverage' could bring in millions of dollars to Illinois' cash-strapped state budget, as soft-drink companies compete -- and pay -- for the right to hawk their soda, juice or other beverage under Illinois' state banner." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: official state beverage ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Miller Defends His Speech STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/13/2004 08:49:46 AM ----- BODY: Sen. Zell Miller (D-GA) has an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal that can only be read as damage control from his controversial keynote speech at the Republican convention.
"My critics can call me a psychopath and fire spitballs at me and froth at the mouth when an ex-president sends me a nasty letter. That's the freedom of speech they all enjoy, courtesy of the American soldier...

"So, they can call me names and ridicule my angry demeanor all day long. But facts are facts. And the fact is, John Kerry has a long record of proposals to weaken our national security in a time of war. And I would never put my family's safety in those hands."
Meanwhile, the AP notes MSNBC "has quickly moved to take advantage" of Miller's "combative GOP convention interview with Chris Matthews, featuring it in advertisements." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Small Towns vs. Cities STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/13/2004 08:45:18 AM ----- BODY: As the presidential candidates "concentrate their efforts on a shrinking handful of battleground states, Bush is working particularly hard to woo voters in small towns... where, the president's advisers believe, he must generate a sizable turnout in order to overcome Kerry's natural advantage in the bigger cities," the Christian Science Monitor reports.

Meanwhile, a new Zogby Poll of rural voters shows Kerry behind Bush by 15 points, 52% to 37%. "The good news for Mr. Kerry is that he is already even with Vice President Gore’s total in 2000 of 37%, while Mr. Bush is running 7 points behind the 59% he took in 2000." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: rural voters ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Kerry Preps for Debates STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/13/2004 08:38:44 AM ----- BODY: In recent weeks, Sen. John Kerry "has huddled several times with top advisers to study Bush's attacks, debate style and vulnerabilities as part of preparations for the first head-to-head showdown of this campaign, tentatively scheduled for Sept. 30 in the battleground state of Florida," the Washington Post reports.

Of course, the debate schedule has not yet been agreed upon by the Bush and Kerry camps. Jules Witcover notes "the debate over debates, that quadrennial hassle among the corner men for the presidential nominees for advantages large and small in the critical face-offs that could well decide the outcome of the election."

Jonathan Alter argues that Bush "wants to spend valuable time debating debates" because "it runs down the clock on discussion of important stuff, like his record in office." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry Bush debates ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Nader Looms in Battleground STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/13/2004 08:32:24 AM ----- BODY: Bob Novak picks up on the theme of our earlier post: The Democratic strategy to keep Ralph Nader off the ballot could backfire.

"The party's limitation of Nader's ballot access has been most successful in non-battleground states. That keeps the independent candidate away from states where either President Bush or Sen. Kerry will win easily. Nader then is free to concentrate on closely contested states where he could take away enough votes from Kerry to carry them for Bush, conceivably giving him a second term."

Ballot Access News has the state-by-state tally of Nader's latest crudade. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Ralph Nader ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Rice Denies Knowledge of Prison Torture STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/13/2004 08:25:30 AM ----- BODY: National security adviser Condoleezza Rice "denied assertions in a new book that she and other top Bush administration officials ignored warnings about the abuse of prisoners at the Navy base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba," the AP reports.

The allegations come from New Yorker writer Seymour Hersh, whose new book was set for release today. ----- EXTENDED BODY: 0060195916 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Seymour Hersh ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: It's Character, Stupid STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/13/2004 08:19:17 AM ----- BODY: The Wall Street Journal highlights the "bruising fight" over "character" that "has taken center stage in a presidential campaign that once seemed it would hinge more on Iraq, terrorism and the economy."

"Character is the crux of the battle over the Vietnam-era behavior of President Bush and John Kerry, as well as the prism increasingly used by both campaigns to refract the debate over current issues such as taxes and Medicare." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: character presidential campaign ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: All Eyes on Colorado STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/13/2004 08:14:22 AM ----- BODY: The Wall Street Journal picks up on a story Political Wire readers have known about for months: "A push is under way in Colorado to amend the state's constitution in the November general election and scrap the winner-take-all allocation of electoral votes practiced by 48 states."

"If voters approve the measure, and it withstands court challenge, the reverberations could reach well beyond the 2004 campaign. Analysts in both parties expect a change in Colorado would spur similar moves elsewhere and make the Electoral College system itself once again a battlefield in the war between Republicans and Democrats for control of a narrowly divided nation.

"Such a change nationwide would dramatically alter presidential campaigns by giving candidates new incentives to compete in vote-rich states that now are safely in the hands of the opposition." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Colorado electoral votes ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Absentee Ballot Fraud Worries Officials STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/12/2004 11:56:48 PM ----- BODY: "As both major political parties intensify their efforts to promote absentee balloting as a way to lock up votes in the presidential race, election officials say they are struggling to cope with an array of coercive tactics and fraudulent vote-gathering involving absentee ballots that have undermined local races across the country," the New York Times reports.

"Some of those officials say they are worried that the brashness of the schemes and the extent to which critical swing states have allowed party operatives to involve themselves in absentee voting -- from handling ballot applications to helping voters fill out their ballots -- could taint the general election in November."

The AP notes early voting "is transforming the landscape for political campaigns." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: absentee ballots ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/12/2004 11:42:39 PM ----- BODY: "President Bush's post-convention bounce in state and national polls has left Democratic challenger John F. Kerry with a smaller battlefield upon which to contest the presidential election and a potentially more difficult route to an electoral college victory than his advisers envisioned a few months ago," the Washington Post reports.

Here are the latest national polls: Here are the latest Electoral Vote tallies (270 needed to win): Here are the latest state polls: Update: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry polls ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Nader Pledges to Focus on Battleground States STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/12/2004 09:40:39 PM ----- BODY: "In what could become a worst-case scenario for Democrats, Ralph Nader announced plans to launch a spirited new phase to his independent candidacy in swing states," the Hartford Courant reports. Nader says "part of its purpose would be to retaliate against Democrats who had fought his candidacy." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Ralph Nader ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Kerry Talks Comeback STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/12/2004 10:50:24 AM ----- BODY: Time gets the first interview with Sen. John Kerry in over a month to discuss his "comeback plan."

On the swift boat ads: "I think the President's unwillingness to walk away from those comments makes it clear that he and the Vice President will say anything and do anything to get elected and to hold on to power. It was a shameful and outrageous effort.

"But you know, I've been in worse situations in my life. The attacks don't attack me as much as they attack Americans and America. They're trying to distract people from the real issues that matter." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry comeback ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: The Black Art of Politics STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/12/2004 08:12:37 AM ----- BODY: The New York Times reminds us that "as nasty as today's campaigns appear, ferocious politics are as old as the Republic, and unrestrained invective has generally been the rule, not the exception. Charges of siring illegitimate children, canings on the Senate floor, duels to the death and other features of 19th-century politics make current political advertisements and stump speeches sound tame. And neither party is innocent." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: black art of politics ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/10/2004 12:10:31 PM ----- BODY: The latest Democracy Corps survey, conducted by a Democratic polling firm, shows President Bush leading Sen. John Kerry 48% to 45%.

Update: The new Associated Press Poll shows Bush leading Kerry 51% to 46%.

The new Zogby Poll has Bush leading Kerry 46% to 42%. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: If Swing Voters Stay Home STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/10/2004 11:10:01 AM ----- BODY: Craig Crawford notes that if swing voters are turned off by the negative tone of the campaign and don't vote, it would turn the election "into a test of the turnout strength of each side’s faithful."

"That, sadly, would put the next four years in the hands of those seduced by the shrill sound of ideological zealotry. Such people should not be labeled 'true believers,' because they have allowed themselves to believe the most ridiculous lies being spread, frequently on the Internet, about one candidate or the other. Rabid Democrats insist that Bush and Cheney sent young Americans to their death in Iraq just to make money for Halliburton. Equally rabid Republicans insist that Kerry deliberately shot himself for a war medal."

"If these are the people who now decide elections, Heaven help us." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: swing voters ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Are the "60 Minutes" Memos Fake? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/10/2004 09:15:07 AM ----- BODY: As we mentioned briefly yesterday, and the AP notes today, questions are being raised "about the authenticity of newly unearthed memos purporting to have been written by one of George Bush's Texas Air National Guard commanders in 1972 and 1973."

Once again, weblogs are doing the bulk of the questioning. Powerline has been leading the charge, with an assist from Instapundit. Matt Drudge says CBS News has launched an "internal investigation." Both Kevin Drum and Josh Marshall say sufficient questions have been raised that the network needs to provide more information.

Interestingly, Romenesko, the leading media blog, has yet to run anything on the controversy. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Kerry Keeps Away from Reporters STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/10/2004 09:11:21 AM ----- BODY: The Chicago Tribune notes that Sen. John Kerry "has been under wraps for the last month, declining to subject himself to what must surely be the painful process of answering national reporters' questions."

"Kerry travels across the country on a 757 airplane packed with staff, Secret Service agents, reporters, photographers and cameramen. The candidate sits at the front of the plane while the media stay in the back. Usually, reporters can get a glimpse of his gray mane when he stands in the aisle chatting with staff. Occasionally, he throws around a football on the airport tarmac, sometimes inviting a reporter to join in."

"But ask him a question and Kerry shakes his head, puts up his hand and walks away with a small smile." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry media ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/10/2004 09:04:48 AM ----- BODY: "The Republicans have the best propaganda out there since Lenin, and they just make stuff up and they keep repeating it, and hope people are going to believe it."

-- Howard Dean, to the Associated Press. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Howard Dean ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Election Leading Indicators STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/10/2004 08:50:13 AM ----- BODY: Noting the presidential election is likely to be very close, Al Hunt provides "a handful of leading indicators to watch over the next 53 days." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Shrum's Streak STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/10/2004 08:40:36 AM ----- BODY: It makes you wonder why Democrats were fighting so hard for his services. The Washington Post profiles Bob Shrum, noting that the Kerry political consultant's "0-7 win-loss record in presidential elections has become ensconced in the psyches of the campaigns he orchestrates."

Meanwhile, the New York Times says the Bush campaign "has questioned CNN's allowing James Carville and Paul Begala to continue as commentators despite their role as informal advisers to the Kerry campaign."

And the AP notes that Kerry and Bill Clinton had another "telephone chat to discuss campaign strategy" yesterday. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bob Shrum ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Third Parties May Be Threat to Bush STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/10/2004 08:37:41 AM ----- BODY: "Three third-party presidential candidates have ballot access in more states than Ralph Nader and pose as much, if not more, of a threat to President Bush than to Democratic contender Sen. John Kerry," the Washington Times reports.

"The Libertarian Party is now on the presidential ballot in 44 states and the Constitution Party in 35 states, both more than the 24 that Mr. Nader has managed amidst a concerted effort from state Democrats to thwart his bids."

Meanwhile, the Green Party, "on whose ticket Mr. Nader ran in 2000 and received 2.8 million votes, is now on the ballot in 28 states."

For more, check out Ballot Access News. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Ralph Nader ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: GOP Attack on Book Boosts Sales STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/10/2004 08:29:39 AM ----- BODY: "A Republican attack on author Kitty Kelley's forthcoming biography on the Bush family is helping to build advance demand for the title scheduled to hit bookstores on Tuesday," the Wall Street Journal reports.

"At a time when political books are leading the ranks of nonfiction bestsellers, The Family is expected to be one of the biggest titles in the critical fall season." ----- EXTENDED BODY: 0385503245 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kitty Kelley ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Nader Faces Obstacle in Florida STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/09/2004 10:57:08 PM ----- BODY: Ralph Nader "is well on his way to being kicked off the Florida ballot after a judge ruled that Democrats have a good chance of winning their case against the 2000 presidential election spoiler," the AP reports.

A judge "strongly indicated" that that a temporary order delaying ballot certification "would become permanent, saying he wouldn't have issued the temporary order if he thought Nader and running mate Peter Comejo properly qualified for the ballot." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Ralph Nader ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Your Turn STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/09/2004 10:49:27 PM ----- BODY: With this nifty site, you can be President Bush's speechwriter. When you're done, you can even hear the president deliver your masterpiece! ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush speechwriter ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Sons of the Powerful STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/09/2004 10:33:38 PM ----- BODY: The Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire re-reads Colin Powell's autobiography which "blasted the 'anti-democratic disgrace' in which 'sons of the powerful' got National Guard slots instead of active duty." ----- EXTENDED BODY: 0345407288 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Colin Powell Bush nationa guard ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/09/2004 04:07:45 PM ----- BODY: The latest Economist poll shows a statistical dead heat in the presidential race, with President Bush at 46% and Sen. John Kerry at 45%. In addition, a majority are still disatisfied with the direction of the country and Bush's job performance.

A new CBS News poll shows Bush with a seven-point lead over Kerry among registered voters.

Update: A new Fox News poll shows Bush getting a "minimal bounce" out of the convention and is now leading Kerry 47% to 45%.

Ryan Lizza gets an advance look at the new ABC News poll which "has lots of bad news for John Kerry, especially on issues of leadership and national security. The three-way horserace among likely voters is Bush 52%, Kerry 43%, Nader 2%"

Here are the latest state polls: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Heinz Kerry: Opponents of Kerry Plan are Idiots STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/09/2004 10:57:51 AM ----- BODY: Teresa Heinz Kerry told the Lancaster Intelligencer Journal that "only an idiot" would fail to support her husband's health care plan. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Heinz Kerry idiots ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Will McGreevey Change His Mind? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/09/2004 09:01:53 AM ----- BODY: The Trentonian notes that New Jersey Gov. Jim McGreevey (D) "has failed to file a formal letter of resignation and may be rethinking his resignation." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/09/2004 08:59:49 AM ----- BODY: "I ordered that 1st Lt. Bush be suspended not just for failing to take a physical... but for failing to perform to U.S. Air Force/Texas Air National Guard standards."

-- Col. Jerry Killian, in a 1972 memo obtained by 60 Minutes.

Update: Some are challenging the authenticity of the newly discovered document. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush national guard service ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Bush Campaign Urges Early Voting STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/09/2004 08:53:26 AM ----- BODY: "The Bush-Cheney campaign has emphasized to its business allies the importance of urging employees to take advantage of new rules that allow them to vote weeks before Election Day," The Hill reports. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: early voting ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Hurricane Gives Bush an Opening in Florida STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/09/2004 08:50:28 AM ----- BODY: "Two devastating hurricanes have given President Bush something his political advisers couldn't dream up: the chance to play comforter in chief in a battleground state he is determined to win again," the Miami Herald reports.

Just after Hurricane Frances, Bush and Sen. John Kerry (D) postponed their Florida campaign appearances, "but Bush was able to use the power of incumbency to fly in, survey the damage and reassure storm-battered residents." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry hurricane ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Kerry Narrows Ad Push STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/09/2004 08:45:57 AM ----- BODY: Sen. John Kerry and the Democratic Party "are limiting television advertising to 14 states as the fall campaign opens, curbing their ambitions for a broader playing field against" President Bush, the AP reports. "The shift reduces Missouri, Colorado, Arizona and four Southern states to second-tier status."

Meanwhile, Kerry strategists "stiffened the spines of House Democrats" yesterday, "giving a closed-door caucus meeting a Power Point presentation that painted a rosy picture for the Democratic presidential campaign," The Hill reports. Lawmakers reacted "with a general consensus that the Kerry camp needs to hit" Bush "faster and harder." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry ads ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Size Matters STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/09/2004 08:44:16 AM ----- BODY: "This is the time in the political calendar when soothsayers point to the size of crowds at rallies to see which candidate is producing more enthusiasm. The campaigns, well aware of this practice, can't resist putting their thumbs on the scale," the Washington Post reports. "It seems that the Bush campaign is inflating its crowd counts by 45 to 75 percent." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: campaign crowds ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Sharon Bush Denies Being Book's Source STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/09/2004 08:36:39 AM ----- BODY: President Bush's former sister-in-law "denied yesterday that she had given author Kitty Kelley any information about allegations of past drug use by Bush," the Washington Post reports.

"Sharon Bush is quoted in Kelley's forthcoming book about the Bush family as making one of the allegations, and Kelley's editor said in an interview Tuesday that she had provided 'confirmation' for the information."

Meanwhile, the New York Times notes the Bush campaign "has opened a wave of advance counterstrikes intended to undermine" Keeley's credibility. ----- EXTENDED BODY: 0385503245 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kitty Kelley ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Vanishing Point STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/09/2004 08:26:31 AM ----- BODY: The Wall Street Journal runs a fascinating review of Richard J. Tofel's Vanishing Point, a portrait of Tammany Hall politicos "and their intricate political deals, some of which made corruption a high art -- and in high places too."

At the center of the story is Joseph Crater, "who disappeared one August night in 1930 not long after Gov. Franklin Roosevelt had appointed him to a judgeship on the New York Supreme Court. Judge Crater left behind important friends, a seemingly puzzled wife, envelopes full of money, a loose affiliation with political figures under indictment and, it became clear, the affection of several Broadway showgirls. Vanishing Point is the first book to piece together his surprising story."

Tofel "sifts the evidence and strolls through Tammany Hall looking for clues -- not only to Judge Crater's disappearance but also to the workings of the political machine of which he was a part." ----- EXTENDED BODY: 1566636051 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/08/2004 09:03:35 PM ----- BODY: "We know that John Kerry was in Vietnam. My question, Mr. President, is where were you, Sir?"

-- Democratic Party chief Terry McAuliffe in a conference call with reporters. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Terry McAuliffe Bush Vietnam ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/08/2004 05:48:58 PM ----- BODY: "If the world could cast a vote in the United States presidential election, John Kerry would beat George W. Bush by a landslide," the International Herald Tribune reports. A new poll released today "is described as the largest sample of global opinion on the race."

Update: Pollster John Zogby says recent polls showing Bush's lead at 11 percent are wrong, and that Bush's post-convention lead over Kerry is closer to 2 percent. "I will remind readers that my polling has come closest to the final results in both 1996 and 2000."

Update II: A new ICR Survey shows "the race for President is still neck and neck. Based on registered voters who are certain they will vote, 48.2 percent say they will vote for George W. Bush, 47.3 percent for John Kerry, and 4.1 percent for others or undecided."

Here are the latest state polls: Update III: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: West Virginia Elector May Not Vote for Bush STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/08/2004 03:07:35 PM ----- BODY: "If President Bush wins West Virginia, one of the state's five Republican electors says he might not cast his Electoral College vote for Bush to protest the president's economic and foreign policies," the AP reports.

However, Richie Robb also said "it is unlikely he would cast his electoral vote for Democrat John Kerry or anyone else but he is considering withholding it." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: West Virginia electoral vote ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Bush Covers U2 STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/08/2004 01:32:38 PM ----- BODY: This is well done: President Bush sings U2's "Sunday Bloody Sunday."

For those interested in doing their own digital remix with Bush's voice, check out the George W. Bush Public Domain Audio Archive. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush U2 MP3 digital editing ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Updating The Political Machine STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/08/2004 12:28:46 PM ----- BODY: For those playing The Political Machine, a timely and highly recommended computer game, I've learned a free patch will soon be available that adds some nice features and fixes some bugs.

In addition, a demo of the game is also now available for download.

Meanwhile, there are additional reviews in the San Jose Mercury News, Providence Journal and USA Today. ----- EXTENDED BODY: B0002LAUNE ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: The Political Machine ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Gay Republicans Withhold Endorsement STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/08/2004 09:15:19 AM ----- BODY: The Log Cabin Republicans have decided to withhold their endorsement for the 2004 presidential election. The board voted "overwhelmingly" against endorsing President Bush, though the organization did back Bush in 2000 and Bob Dole in 1996. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Log Cabin Republicans ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Bush's Guard Duty Gets More Scrutiny STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/08/2004 09:15:10 AM ----- BODY: Tonight, 60 Minutes II will investigate President Bush's service in the National Guard. But despite the promo, featuring the man who says he got Bush into a coveted guard slot, Josh Marshall says "the big news won't be how Bush got into the Guard but how he blew off his duties once he got there. Again, new documents -- stuff that is clear and straightforward and apparently puts beyond any debate or doubt that the now-President blew off the duties that he said, as recently as this year, that he fulfilled."

A Boston Globe investigation also finds Bush "fell well short of meeting his military obligation." The article notes a "reexamination of the records shows: Twice during his Guard service... Bush signed documents pledging to meet training commitments or face a punitive call-up to active duty. He didn't meet the commitments, or face the punishment, the records show."

And the the Los Angeles Times notes that Texans for Truth, "a new group founded by a veteran Texas Democratic operative," will announce a TV ad campaign "reprising charges that" Bush "failed to perform" his guard service."

Update: The New York Times says that "after saying for months that all relevant documents about" Bush's "service in the Texas Air National Guard had been made public, the Bush administration released what it called newly found records on Tuesday night." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush National Guard ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: 527 Groups Face Additional Scrutiny STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/08/2004 09:05:23 AM ----- BODY: "With fewer than 60 days left until Election Day, the Federal Election Commission is slated to proffer more official advice this week to outside groups on how far they can go with advertising that contains images of federal candidates," Roll Call reports.

Meanwhile, the New York Times notes the "free flow of personnel between the campaigns, the groups and the political parties is alarming advocates who fought for tighter campaign finance restrictions and who say it is undermining the rules -- or perhaps even breaking them." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: 527 groups ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Graham's Book Attacked as "Conspiracy Theory" STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/08/2004 09:00:45 AM ----- BODY: Sen. Bob Graham's (D-FL) "book on U.S. intelligence failures hit bookstores Tuesday and quickly became a hot issue in the presidential campaign," the Miami Herald reports. Meanwhile, the Republican National Committee "mocked Graham's 'bizarre conspiracy theories' and derided his credibility."

Graham is a former Chairman of the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee. ----- EXTENDED BODY: 1400063523 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Carter Blasts Zell Miller STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/08/2004 08:53:15 AM ----- BODY: In a letter sent over the weekend, former President Jimmy Carter "accused fellow Georgia Democrat Zell Miller of 'unprecedented disloyalty' for the senator's speech at the Republican convention," the AP reports. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Jimmy Carter Zell Miller ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Nader Fails in Virginia, Succeeds in Lousiana STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/08/2004 08:48:47 AM ----- BODY: Ralph Nader failed "to submit enough valid signatures to be listed" Virginia's presidential ballot, the New York Times reports.

However, the New Orleans Times-Picayune notes Nader will be on Louisiana's ballot.

And in Kentucky, the AP reports the Nader campaign just barely met the deadline to submit signatures for consideration in that state. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Ralph Nader ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Jesus for Keyes STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/08/2004 08:28:00 AM ----- BODY: Ilinois U.S. Senate candidate Alan Keyes (R) says Jesus Christ would not vote for his opponent, Barack Obama (D), according to this CBS 2 Chicago report. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Alan Keyes ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Bush May Skip One Debate STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/07/2004 11:15:08 PM ----- BODY: President Bush "may skip one of the three debates that have been proposed by the Commission on Presidential Debates and accepted by Sen. John F. Kerry (D-MA)," the Washington Post reports.

"The officials said Bush's negotiating team plans to resist the middle debate, which was to be Oct. 8 in a town meeting format in the crucial state of Missouri." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry debates ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Cheney Warns a Vote for Kerry Threatens Nation STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/07/2004 08:41:46 PM ----- BODY: Vice President Dick Cheney "warned Americans about voting for Democratic Sen. John Kerry, saying that if the nation makes the wrong choice on Election Day it faces the threat of another terrorist attack," the AP reports.

Sen. John Edwards responded: "Dick Cheney's scare tactics crossed the line today, showing once again that he and George Bush will do anything and say anything to save their jobs." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Dick Cheney terrorism ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Where the Race Stands STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/07/2004 02:47:59 PM ----- BODY: Remember that during the final two months of the 2000 campaign, the race was very volatile. Bush trailed and led Gore by double digits several times, only to lose the popular vote on Election Day. Barring a major event, this year's race should be just as competitive until the end.

National Polls Electoral College Snapshot (270 Needed to Win) Political Futures Markets (Odds of Winning) Update: The latest Battleground States Poll, done for the Wall Street Journal, "still shows Mr. Kerry well ahead, leading in 12 of the 16 battlegrounds in Zogby's twice-a-month polls. But Mr. Bush took the lead in two states -- Arkansas and Tennessee -- since the poll conducted a week before his convention. And there are other signs of strength for the president." Zogby has more analysis on his site. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: presidential race where it stands ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Vote or Not? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/07/2004 01:36:07 PM ----- BODY: The founders of the Hot or Not website have created a new contest, Vote or Not, to encourage people to vote. Here is their rationale:
Quite simply, we believe it is important for people to vote. The idea of this contest was one of many crazy ideas we've had over the past 4 years... so crazy in fact that we thought it might actually make a difference. There have been elections in the past where I (James) wanted to vote, but then realized on election day that I'd been too lazy to register. It's important for people to remember they need to register, and we hope this sweepstakes helps that. We also like the idea of doing this because nobody else has done it before, and we like to do crazy, new things.
The $100,000 prize will be awarded to one lucky person. The only catch is you must be registered to vote when the drawing takes place. Enter today and you might win $100,000! (And if you use that link to enter, I might win too!) ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: vote or not ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Kerry's Split Personality on Vietnam STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/07/2004 01:22:10 PM ----- BODY: The Boston Globe looks at how Sen. John Kerry came to make his Vietnam War record a central theme of his campaign, despite the acknowledged risks. In particular, Kerry "was torn" over cooperating with Douglas Brinkely on his book, Tour of Duty. This episode probably best shows how Kerry weighed the pros and cons of using the issue in the presidential race.

Says Brinkely: "Kerry was very reluctant to spend the time with me to relive his past. But he knew Vietnam would be an issue in the presidential race. It always was in his Senate races. My book was a huge gamble. I knew he hadn't sanitized his collection because he was so nervous as I read it. Vietnam could cut for good or ill." ----- EXTENDED BODY: 0060565233 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry Vietnam Brinkley ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/07/2004 11:58:41 AM ----- BODY: "We've got an issue in America. Too many good docs are getting out of business. Too many OB/GYNs aren't able to practice their love with women all across this country."

-- President Bush, quoted by the AP, apparently mixing up his words in a campaign speech on the rising costs of health care. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bushisms ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: GOP Succeeds in Defining the Race STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/07/2004 11:31:32 AM ----- BODY: Stuart Rothenberg looks at the post-convention polls and makes a wise observation on the state of the presidential race:
"Bush’s bounce (whatever it is) is likely to fade over time, but can’t be dismissed. The Republicans appear to have convinced voters that this year’s contest is about picking a commander-in-chief to lead the war against terrorism, and Kerry is at a distinct disadvantage on that question...

"Anyway, it’s wise to wait for a few days before assessing the impact of the GOP convention and the state of the Presidential contest. But the Kerry campaign’s decision to bring in new advisors and to begin its counterattack at midnight can’t make grass roots Democrats feel very confident. Desperation may be too strong of a word, but clearly Kerry believes that he has to change the race’s dynamic."

"The problem for Democrats is that their convention was focused on positioning Senator Kerry, while the Republicans sought to define the meaning of the 2004 election. If the Republicans succeeded, then it doesn’t matter whether the Democrats did as well."
----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush bounce ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: O'Reilly vs. Clinton? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/07/2004 11:06:53 AM ----- BODY: Talk show host Bill O'Reilly is considering a possible Senate bid against Sen. Hillary Clinton, Lloyd Grove reports.

"In one conversation over the past two weeks, I hear that O'Reilly even ruminated about whether he should endorse Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry - the better to position himself as a moderate Republican in a majority-Democrat state." However, O'Reilly is backing President Bush in the election. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bill O'Reilly senate ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: A Tale of Two Ads STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/07/2004 08:09:11 AM ----- BODY: "For academics who study campaign rhetoric and advertising," the parallels between the 1988 Willie Horton ad and the recent Swift Boat ads "are striking," the Washington Post reports.

"In both the Horton and Swift boat cases, the respective Bush campaigns disclaimed responsibility, saying the ads were the work of unaffiliated groups. But in both instances, news media reports subsequently exposed ties between the official campaigns and the independent groups... And neither of the Bush campaigns specifically repudiated the controversial spots."

"It has not mattered much that the facts underlying the commercials were inaccurate, or at least distorted." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: political advertisers ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Cafe 42 STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/06/2004 10:01:05 PM ----- BODY: If Bill Clinton always had timing this bad, he never would have been elected president. Just as he "readied for heart bypass surgery last week," Washington Whispers "got word he's fulfilling a dream: opening a restaurant that will serve all his fatty favorites, like fried chicken, meatloaf--even tollhouse cookies from Hillary's recipe file. Now when he visits Cafe 42, attached to his Little Rock library and museum opening in November, he'll have to stick to salads."

Meanwhile, about the name: "Clinton picked it himself. Seems he likes how former President George H. W. Bush and President Bush refer to each other by the presidential numbers, 41 and 43, and wants people to remember he was 42." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bill Clinton ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: In Texas, Perry May Face Tough Re-Election STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/06/2004 09:52:39 PM ----- BODY: A Texas Poll suggests "a tough re-election road ahead" for Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R), "fueling speculation about likely Republican challenges from U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison or Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Rick Perry Texas ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Graham Book Claims Bush Coverup STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/06/2004 09:29:56 PM ----- BODY: The Miami Herald "obtained" an early copy of Intelligence Matters, a new book from Sen. Bob Graham (D-FL), which claims two of the 9/11 hijackers "had a support network in the United States that included agents of the Saudi government, and the Bush administration and FBI blocked a congressional investigation into that relationship."

The financial backing of the two hijackers "would draw a direct line between the terrorists and the government of Saudi Arabia, and trigger an attempted coverup by the Bush administration," Graham writes. ----- EXTENDED BODY: 1400063523 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bob Graham intellgence matters ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: The Impact of Fahrenheit 9/11 STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/06/2004 09:10:11 PM ----- BODY: Michael Moore claims a "well-known pollster" told him about "an informal poll" with Fahrenheit 9/11 audiences in three different cities:

"Essentially, 80% of the people going IN to see your movie are already likely Kerry voters and the movie has galvanized them in a way you rarely see Democrats galvanized. But, here's the bad news for Bush: Though 80% going IN to your movie are Kerry voters, 100% of those COMING OUT of your movie are Kerry voters."

The pollster went on to say he believes if Kerry wins, Fahrenheit 9/11 will be one of the top three reasons for his election. ----- EXTENDED BODY: B00005JNEI ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Fahrenheit 9/11 ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Clinton Aides Come to Kerry's Rescue STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/06/2004 09:00:20 PM ----- BODY: There wasn't an official shake up, but it's clear from today's New York Times the Kerry campaign had an unofficial one.

While awaiting surgery, former President Bill Clinton, "in a 90-minute telephone conversation from his hospital room, offered John Kerry detailed advice on Saturday night on how to reinvigorate his candidacy." Clinton reportedly told Kerry that "he should move away from talking about Vietnam, which had been the central theme of his candidacy, and focus instead on drawing contrasts with President Bush on job creation and health care policies."

"Among the better-known former Clinton aides who are expected to play an increasingly prominent role are James Carville, Paul Begala and Stanley Greenberg."

The Washington Post reports Kerry is already taking Clinton's advice. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry Clinton campaign advice ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/06/2004 08:15:00 PM ----- BODY: Here are the post-convention national polls: So now it's clear Bush's lead over Kerry ranges from 1 point to 11 points. For those now totally confused, Scott Rasmussen explains why the various polls above show different results from each other and from his presidential race tracking poll which has Bush ahead by only one point. "For those who need to know the answer before the explanation, the bottom line is that the President is ahead by 4 to 5 points at this time. That's a significant improvement over the past few weeks, but not a double digit lead."

Another must-read piece is Gallup's analysis.

Here are the latest state polls: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/06/2004 12:04:51 AM ----- BODY: "There are two horses and one stall."

-- A New York Republican insider, quoted by the New York Times, on Gov. George Pataki and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani angling for a 2008 presidential run. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Pataki Giuliani ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Companies Cut Political Donations STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/03/2004 04:17:28 PM ----- BODY: "Some of the nation's most prolific corporate donors have seized on the restrictions of campaign-finance laws to largely drop out of the political money race," the Wall Street Journal reports.

"The collapse of corporate funding marks a major shift in the history of political finance. Labor unions haven't hesitated to transfer funds formerly earmarked for unregulated or 'soft money' donations to the new groups. By contrast, corporations have been disinclined to fund 527s. The shift has left Republicans, by far the major beneficiary of their money, at a financial disadvantage for the short term at least."

"Instead, companies are seeking a more direct role in the electoral process. Rather than simply writing checks, they're encouraging employees to lobby Congress on particular issues or support individual candidates. Companies are reviving old-fashioned but smaller political fund-raising operations that solicit donations from employees." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: corporate political donations ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Bush Bounce Expected STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/03/2004 04:07:13 PM ----- BODY: Republican strategists "expect the Bush-Cheney ticket will get a measurable bounce out of the convention," the Wall Street Journal's Al Hunt writes, "but it will be tough for the president to maintain more than a slim advantage by the time the debates begin four weeks from now."

Democrats also "acknowledge a likely Bush bump, but contend the fundamentals of the race -- with most Americans desiring change -- remain intact."

In fact, the first polls done during the Republican convention show Bush moving into a clear lead. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush bounce ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Clinton Scheduled for Heart Surgery STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/03/2004 03:53:49 PM ----- BODY: Former President Bill Clinton will undergo heart bypass surgery as early as Saturday, CNN reports. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bill Clinton ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/03/2004 12:53:46 AM ----- BODY: The latest Zogby America Poll shows President Bush leading Sen. John Kerry, 46% to 44%.

Says pollster John Zogby: "The President has had a very good convention following a good week where he also dominated the news with his own message: leadership, strength, decisiveness. Not only has he dominated the news but he also has thrown Kerry off his game."

However, while Bush "has improved his numbers, he still has a negative re-elect, job performance, and wrong direction."

Update: A new Time poll shows President Bush "the clear leader" in the presidential race. If the election were held today, 52% of likely voters surveyed would vote for Bush, 41% would vote for Sen. John Kerry, and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: It's All About Turnout STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/03/2004 12:46:54 AM ----- BODY: "After Labor Day, campaigns focus on voter turnout," the Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire reports.

"Both parties expect their intense mobilization drives to boost the voter total beyond 2000's 105 million." Bush adviser Karl Rove "expects roughly 110 million to vote and thinks the party that best executes its get-out-the-vote game plan will win."

On the Democratic side, the AFL-CIO "kicked off its biggest-ever, $45 million effort last night; 15,000 unionists will go door-to-door for Kerry, including in swing states Ohio, Pennsylvania and Missouri."

"The higher the turnout," says pollster John Zogby, "the worse it is" for Bush. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Voter turnout ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Waiting on the Jobs Report STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/03/2004 12:09:18 AM ----- BODY: The National Journal says President Bush did not see Friday's jobless report before delivering his convention speech.

"It is customary for the department to send the figures to the White House the evening before they become public," but White House Chief of Staff Andy Card "said Bush and his speechwriters would not know the contents until midnight, or some time after the convention gavels to a close, in order to insulate the president from potential critiques that he used insider government information for political purposes."

Update: The report says 144,000 jobs were created in August, slightly less than expected; the unemployment rate is now 5.4%. Reuters has more. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: job numbers ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Kerry Readies Ad Blitz STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/02/2004 09:49:12 PM ----- BODY: The AP notes Sen. John Kerry's campaign announced its fall advertising strategy earlier this week, "tipping its hand to Bush's campaign -- as well as to the Democrat's allies who have been running ads on his behalf. Outside groups, including an arm of the Democratic National Committee, can't legally coordinate with Kerry but they now know where he intends to focus his efforts this fall."

Nonetheless, Ryan Lizza reports more is coming tomorrow: "There will be a significant announcement from the Kerry campaign about a new media buy that will be far tougher than anything Kerry has done this year." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry advertising ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Kerry Fights Back STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/02/2004 08:35:30 PM ----- BODY: The race for president officially begins after President Bush accepts the Republican nomination tonight. The AP and Reuters note Kerry started early by releasing excerpts of a speech he'll give at midnight: "I'm not going to have my commitment to defend this country questioned by those who refused to serve when they could have and by those who have misled the nation into Iraq." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry fights back ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Previewing Bush's Speech STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/02/2004 04:11:15 PM ----- BODY: In an interview with the Columbus Dispatch, President Bush described tonight's speech as "43 minutes of sheer wisdom." Then he elaborated, saying "he will offer an unapologetic defense of the war in Iraq and boldly proclaim the nation’s obligation to spread global freedom."

Bloomberg notes he "will spend equal time discussing the war on terrorism and domestic issues."

Immediately after the speech, the New York Times reports Bush will head to Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for campaign rallies.

Update: Here are advance excerpts of Bush's speech. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush convention speech ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: The Last Bush Convention? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/02/2004 03:49:23 PM ----- BODY: Barbara Bush tells USA Today that "this might be the last time she frets her way through a convention" because she doesn't expect any other Bushes running for president.

When reminded that son Jeb, Florida's governor, and grandson George P., an aspiring politician, "might be alarmed to hear her reply" she was firm in her response: "I just said yes. There are enough of us." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Barbara Bush ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Hatchet Jobs and Hardball STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/02/2004 02:57:33 PM ----- BODY: Hatchet Jobs And Hardball: The Oxford Dictionary Of American Political Slang by Grant Barrett is the perfect book for a political junkie. Written by a lexicographer for Oxford University Press, it's billed as "a savvy guide to political lingo" which "breaks down all the terms anyone could need to understand the D.C. chatterati." The book "defines more than 600 slang words. And though the definitions are clear and easy to understand, the real fun lies in the historical citations, which refer to films and books as often as to newspapers and congressional reports." ----- EXTENDED BODY: 0195176855 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: political slang ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Does Blair Support Kerry? STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/02/2004 01:03:21 PM ----- BODY: Well, if you believe The Guardian, British Prime Minister Tony Blair is one of those foreign leaders that want Sen. John Kerry to win the presidential election. However, in public, "the government will remain studiously neutral." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry foreign leaders ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: No Shake Up STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/02/2004 11:20:25 AM ----- BODY: According to the Cox News Service, there will be no shake up at the Kerry campaign as was rumored earlier this week. The breakfast briefing this morning was "to quell speculation that a major staff shake-up could be in the offing."

Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe also weighed in: "There will be no major shake-up (in the Kerry campaign), let me be crystal here."

According to the Providence Journal, Kerry spokesman Tad Devine said the campaign may add staffers, but "there will be no big changes in the team that has worked with Kerry since before he won the Iowa caucuses in January."

Update: A Washington Post story on the turmoil in the Kerry campaign makes this startling revelation: "One Kerry friend said the candidate focuses on more traditional news outlets and lacks a sophisticated understanding of modern media."

Obviously, somebody needs to buy him a copy of Trippi's book! ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry shake up ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Miller vs. Matthews STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/02/2004 11:08:12 AM ----- BODY: The Chris Matthews interview with Sen. Zell Miller (D-GA) last night was a must-see moment of the convention coverage. (MSNBC has the full video online.) Says Matthews of the encounter: "It was only an hour after his speech, and I guess he came to the interview loaded for bear."

Jason Zengerle has more: "Miller made it quite clear that he has nothing but contempt for John Kerry. But he apparently wants to duel Chris Matthews." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Chris Matthews Zell Miller ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/02/2004 09:44:57 AM ----- BODY: The latest Economist Poll shows President Bush and Sen. John Kerry locked in a tie, 45% to 45%. Kerry had a three point lead in last week's poll.

A Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive Poll shows the Republican National Convention "may be giving the leaners a nudge. Nearly three-quarters of people who have identified themselves as leaning toward voting for President Bush -- but not yet certain they will -- say they favor him more strongly now, based on what they have seen of or heard about the Republican convention."

Meanwhile, if you have time to read only one piece today, check out Gallup's Eleven Insights into the 2004 presidential race from their recent polling.

Update: A new American Research Group poll also shows the race in a statistical tie among registered voters with Kerry slightly ahead of Bush, 48% to 46%. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Widow's Story Contradicts Bush STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/02/2004 09:35:11 AM ----- BODY: Salon talks to an Alabama widow who "contradicts the Bush campaign's assertion that George W. Bush transferred from the Texas Air National Guard to the Alabama National Guard in 1972 because he received an irresistible offer to gain high-level experience" on the U.S. Senate campaign of Bush family friend Red Blount.

In fact, Linda Allison's late husband told her that "the younger Bush had become a political liability for his father, who was then the United States ambassador to the United Nations, and the family wanted him out of Texas."

As to whether they saw Bush do Guard service, Allison says: "Good lord, no." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Alabama National Guard ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/02/2004 09:25:53 AM ----- BODY: "This president sees America as we think about a 10-year-old child."

-- White House Chief of Staff Andy Card, as quoted by the Boston Globe.

Meanwhile, The Economist has an excellent piece on the Republican posturing to be what Chris Matthews calls the "daddy party." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: daddy party ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Begala Has Been Helping Kerry STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/02/2004 09:22:12 AM ----- BODY: Ryan Lizza picks up on yesterday's speculation that Paul Begala might join the Kerry campaign, but says "this wouldn't be a new development. I'm told that, unbeknownst to many, Begala has actually spent lots of time at Kerry headquarters this year, at one point regularly working half-days down on 15th and I Streets to help out the campaign."

Charlie Cook highlights the reason Democrats are worried about Kerry's current staffing: "The Kerry team has been more than willing to hit back, but usually after some delay and rarely within the same news cycle, even though campaign pros think that hitting back immediately is most effective."

"Outsiders don't know whether the lag time is caused by a problem in Kerry's communications shop or within the research team that must prepare the counterattack, or both. But the informed speculation is that the problem is an unwillingness among higher-ups to pull the trigger -- to make quick, crisp decisions. That is hardly a new complaint about Kerry campaigns." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Butterfly Ballot Creator Loses Election STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/02/2004 09:18:24 AM ----- BODY: Palm Beach Elections Supervisor Theresa LePore, "the inventor of the butterfly ballot that became a national joke during the 2000 presidential recount, lost her re-election bid," the AP reports. "Despite the loss, LePore will remain in office until Jan. 3 and will oversee the November election in the county."

No word on whether there will be a recount. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Theresa LePore ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Jobs Report Due Friday Morning STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/02/2004 09:13:53 AM ----- BODY: Just 10 hours after President Bush "accepts his party's nomination tonight, the government will release an important report on the state of the economy," the New York Times reports. "Even some of his allies say that if it is weak it could dampen Republican enthusiasm coming out of the convention and leave" Bush "on the defensive for a pivotal issue heading into the campaign homestretch."

USA Today says "no other economic report has as big an impact on financial markets or elections as the Labor Department's monthly update on jobs. It can dent a portfolio -- or a presidency." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: jobs report Friday ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Miller's Moment STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/02/2004 08:37:30 AM ----- BODY: Andrew Sullivan correctly notes that Zell Miller's speech will "go down as a critical moment in this campaign, and maybe in the history of the Republican party."
"I kept thinking of the contrast with the Democrats' keynote speaker, Barack Obama, a post-racial, smiling, expansive young American, speaking about national unity and uplift. Then you see Zell Miller, his face rigid with anger, his eyes blazing with years of frustration as his Dixiecrat vision became slowly eclipsed among the Democrats. Remember who this man is: once a proud supporter of racial segregation, a man who lambasted LBJ for selling his soul to the negroes. His speech tonight was in this vein, a classic Dixiecrat speech, jammed with bald lies, straw men, and hateful rhetoric. As an immigrant to this country and as someone who has been to many Southern states and enjoyed astonishing hospitality and warmth and sophistication, I long dismissed some of the Northern stereotypes about the South. But Miller did his best to revive them. The man's speech was not merely crude; it added whole universes to the word crude."
Josh Marshall says that "on a pure political level it didn't seem to me like the sort of speech the planners would want in prime time. There's a lot of rage and anger in that man -- and I can't imagine a viewer coming to that speech with an open and politically-uncommitted mind who wouldn't wonder where it was from." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Zell Miller ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: When Most Have Made Up Their Mind STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/01/2004 09:58:35 PM ----- BODY: Never have there been so few undecided voters in a presidential race. In the Gallup poll taken just before the incumbent party's convention, the undecided vote has ranged from 5% in 1996 to as high as 12% in 1972. This year, Gallup shows just 2% of voters are undecided.

This has significant implications for each campaign's strategy: ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: undecided voters ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Trippi Sounds Wake Up Call STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/01/2004 09:39:56 PM ----- BODY: Joe Trippi see history repeating itself: "If the Dukakis campaign of 1988 taught Democrats anything, it should have taught us that you don’t sleep in August. Not against these guys, and not against anyone in this business no matter how formidable the lead. The Kerry campaign should have learned from their close call with the Dean campaign to never sleep walk or fall into the slumber of overconfidence again." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Joe Trippi ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: New Polls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/01/2004 08:41:50 PM ----- BODY: The latest ICR Presidential Election Poll shows the White House race "is neck and neck." Among likely voters, Kerry gets 48%, Bush gets 45% and Ralph Nader trails with 2%. Just 5% are undecided.

Meanwhile, a National Annenberg Election Survey finds Bush "has erased the modest gains" Kerry made on him after the Democratic National Convention.

Said poll director Adam Clymer: "It’s almost as if the last five weeks didn’t happen, at least to the country as a whole. Both candidates maintained their strengths, and their weaknesses."

Here are the latest state polls: Editor's Note: The above polling firms do most of their work for Democratic clients. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry poll ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Kerry Campaign Calls For Press Briefing STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/01/2004 05:05:36 PM ----- BODY: Ryan Lizza reports that the Kerry campaign's "high command" has asked to brief the press in New York on Thursday morning "and no doubt try to quell the firestorm of chatter sweeping the convention hall about the staff being in disarray."

Scheduled to drop by a Christian Science Monitor breakfast, "which should be one of the best events of the week, are: Campaign Manager Mary Beth Cahill, Senior Strategist Tad Devine, Communications Director Stephanie Cutter, pollster Mark Mellman, and recently recruited political adviser Doug Sosnik. The one big name missing from the list is the person who has been the subject of much of the shakeup talk, Bob Shrum -- granted Shrum rarely speaks publicly for the campaign, even during those rare times when he isn't at the center of campaign intrigue."

Speculating on a potential shake up, Dan Rather says James Carville "is unlikely to join the campaign full time. But there is also some talk of Carville associate and former Clinton communications honcho Paul Begala potentially playing some role. Either way, word is that we'll know the extent of any current shake-up by Thursday." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry shake up ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Quote of the Day STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/01/2004 04:56:37 PM ----- BODY: "Twenty years of votes can tell you much more about a man than twenty weeks of campaign rhetoric. Campaign talk tells people who you want them to think you are. How you vote tells people who you really are deep inside."

-- Sen. Zell Miller (D-GA), in excerpts of his keynote address tonight to the Republican National Convention. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Zell Miller speech ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: How Bush Got Into the Texas Air National Guard STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/01/2004 03:19:59 PM ----- BODY: Josh Marshall reports 60 Minutes will soon run "a lengthy interview" with Ben Barnes, the former Texas politician, who will "describe the strings he pulled to keep Bush out of Vietnam and apparently more."

Salon also has the story. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Ben Barnes ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Former President Stops Reading the NYT STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/01/2004 01:27:01 PM ----- BODY: Like son, like father. President Bush says he doesn't read newspapers, and now, according to USA Today, his father says he's "given up" on the New York Times. "The thing that troubles me is, in my opinion, their news columns are getting to show a certain bias."

"There is a new way you do it now: 'Reporter's Notebook.' That gives you a little chance to be an advocate in the news column. Or 'Washington Whispers' or something like that. And that relieves the reporter of objective reporting... I've given up on them."

However, Media Drop reports that on Don Imus' show this morning, the former president said "I have a confession to make. I actually like Maureen Dowd." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Former President Bush New York Times ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: The Keynote Curse STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/01/2004 12:31:54 PM ----- BODY: With retiring Sen. Zell Miller (D-GA) giving the keynote address at tonight's Republican National Convention, Jonathan Hudec notes he's not the usual "up-and-comer" political parties like to spotlight at their convention. But to those young Republicans who hoped to get the nod -- like Barack Obama got from the Democrats -- "history shows that giving the keynote address all but dooms a politician's own White House aspirations." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: convention keynote speech ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Family Reunion STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/01/2004 09:47:24 AM ----- BODY: According to the New York Times, there are 90 Bush relatives attending the convention this week in New York. From Doro Bush Koch to George P. Bush, the Bush clan gathers every four years to share "those little things handed from generation to generation -- the squared jaws and beaked mouths, the stiff aristocratic hug, the Republican nomination, the interchangeable last and middle names, the hostility to any tax, including syntax."

One thing they're probably talking about: Kitty Kelly's unflattering new book on the clan, The Family: The Real Story of the Bush Dynasty.

Update: A source tells Roger Simon says there are "at least five bombshells" contained in the Kitty Kelly book. ----- EXTENDED BODY: 0385503245 ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush family ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: About Those Bush Girls STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/01/2004 09:35:48 AM ----- BODY: Ryan Lizza says the Bush twins introduction of their father last night fell flat:
"I understand that self-deprecation can be a useful political tactic for elected officials. Bush's jokes about himself have always been incredibly disarming, for instance. But I was sort of shocked to see that the conceit of Jenna and Barbara Bush's speech tonight was that they are, well, dumb.

"The reason that self-deprecation works as a rhetorical device is because the person using it has developed at least some level of credibility that cuts against his or her caricature. But if the only thing people have heard about you is that you are a hard-partying, spoiled, not-so-bright, rich kid, well wouldn't it be more useful to tell them a different story about yourself, instead of reveling in your immaturity and ditziness?"
However, Andrew Sullivan thinks differently: "I have to say I loved it - if only for its authenticity, for the sudden interruption of an actual reality into the sometimes surreal script of this convention."

Update: Howard Kurtz says "I've been covering conventions a long time, and this might have been the weirdest moment since George McGovern gave his acceptance speech at 3 a.m."

Political Animal notes even conservatives hated them. "What a disaster. What an absolute disaster." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Washingtonienne Bares All STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/01/2004 09:17:37 AM ----- BODY: We said it would happen. Washingtonienne (a.k.a. Jessica Cutler) is in Playboy.

Editor's Note: Use discretion when clicking on the link above. The press release shows no nudity. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Washingtonienne ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Keyes Attacks Cheney's Daughter STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/01/2004 09:11:38 AM ----- BODY: "As the Republican National Convention focused on unity Tuesday," Illinois U.S. Senate candidate Alan Keyes (R) "lashed out at the vice president's gay daughter," the Chicago Sun Times reports.

After Keyes told radio show hosts that homosexuality is "selfish hedonism," he was asked whether Mary Cheney is a "selfish hedonist." Said Keyes: "Of course she is. That goes by definition. Of course she is."

"Thus far, Keyes' week has been defined by friction with his state party chairwoman and the Illinois delegation, who feel they're playing second fiddle to Keyes' media campaign. Some have also expressed concerns about Keyes' beliefs, calling them too far right for Illinois." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Alan Keyes ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Republicans Avoid Strip Clubs STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/01/2004 09:05:19 AM ----- BODY: New York City's strip clubs have not benefited from the arrival of the Republican National Convention, the New York Times reports. As it turns out, the Big East college basketball tournament is about the only event in New York that can be reliably counted on to cause a big spike in club attendance. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Convention strip clubs ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: GOP Sanctions Kerry Jabs STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/01/2004 09:02:03 AM ----- BODY: "The word to Republican speakers at the national convention is that bashing Sen. John Kerry is fine," the Washington Times reports. "Unlike Democrats, who put out word that they were editing speeches to tamp down on harsh criticism of" Bush at their convention, "the Republicans are not shying away from full-throttle engagement."

Nonetheless, the New York Times notes that Republican officials "had to publicly repudiate the actions of a delegate who was handing out adhesive bandages marked with Purple Hearts to mock" Kerry's "war wounds." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Bush Kerry negative convention ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Speculation Continues on Kerry Shake Up STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/01/2004 08:56:32 AM ----- BODY: Following up on yesterday's report of a potential shake up in Sen. John Kerry's campaign, CNN says Democratic leaders "are urging the presidential nominee to make changes in his staff before Labor Day... Sources say major changes could come at the campaign's highest level."

Meanwhile, the Boston Globe notes Kerry "huddled with several top advisers" in Nantucket amid concerns that Bush "will leave his convention Friday with a better bounce in the polls than Kerry received after his Boston convention."

"In an effort to blunt any momentum Bush may receive from the convention, the Kerry campaign announced a $45 million-television advertising buy to run through the November election in 20 states." ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Kerry campaign shake up ----- -------- AUTHOR: Taegan Goddard TITLE: Arnold! STATUS: Publish ALLOW COMMENTS: 0 CONVERT BREAKS: 0 ALLOW PINGS: 0 PRIMARY CATEGORY: CATEGORY: DATE: 09/01/2004 08:27:55 AM ----- BODY: Jason Thompson says political memorabilia collectors should keep an eye on eBay today: "The printed posters distributed for delegates to wave during Schwarzenegger's speech -- a white-lettered blue sign screaming 'ARNOLD!' -- were the hot ticket item in the convention hall Tuesday night."

"Some delegates could be seen clutching multiple signs... while other delegates -- as well as hopeful Garden staffers, RNC workers and journalists -- carefully scanned the rows of seats on the floor for the souvenirs... Of course, the '4 More Years' signs, attached to 2-foot sticks for maximum effect, were there for the taking, as were the 'People Of Compassion' signs. But those 'ARNOLD!' posters were like gold."

As of this morning, however, none had made their way to eBay. ----- EXTENDED BODY: ----- EXCERPT: ----- KEYWORDS: Arnold! signs ----- --------