CNN contributor Scott Jennings called former Obama campaign manager Jim Messina “an absolute jerk” on the network Wednesday during a heated exchange.
Said Jennings: “I tell you what, man, do you have a single friend?”
CNN contributor Scott Jennings called former Obama campaign manager Jim Messina “an absolute jerk” on the network Wednesday during a heated exchange.
Said Jennings: “I tell you what, man, do you have a single friend?”
A new Monmouth poll in Georgia finds more than half of voters will either definitely (44%) or probably (11%) vote to reelect Gov. Brian Kemp in November. His definite support number increased by 10 points since September.
Meanwhile, just over 4 in 10 voters will definitely (35%) or probably (8%) back Abrams, which is basically unchanged from last month.
Key takeaway: Half of the voters polled have definitely ruled out voting for Abrams (50%) compared with only one-third who say the same about Kemp (35%).
The Economist: “Whether Democrats are favored to win a majority of seats in the Senate depends on whether you trust the polls. The Economist’s aggregate of publicly available pre-election surveys puts the party ahead in 14 of the 35 Senate seats up for re-election this year. That would give the Democrats 50 senators, including the 36 seats that are not being contested this time. Among the ten most-competitive states, our poll-of-polls suggests Republicans are favored to gain a Senate seat in Nevada, but lose one in Pennsylvania.”
“But recent history suggests Democrats will underperform those numbers. In 2016-20 our aggregate of polls overestimated the share of the vote that Democratic candidates for senator and president ultimately won by an average of 2.2 percentage points across every state polled (see chart). Although pollsters updated their methods to try to iron out such errors, in 2020 the bias grew to 2.5 points. Even in 2018, when the pollsters did well on the whole, they undercounted Republican support in key states such as Ohio and Michigan.”
“The numbers now look rosiest for Democrats in the states where polls have recently been least reliable.”
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Jonathan Bernstein: “Had they refrained from ‘meddling,’ they would be putting their majorities further at risk. If they meddled, as they did, they were risking accidentally electing extremists. As it is, they seem to have targeted their attacks well, minimizing the risk and maximizing the chances for gains. I’ll score this one for the campaign professionals and candidates who took the risk.”
A Republican canvasser in Florida didn’t originally tell police that a brutal beating he suffered was politically motivated, but after a tweet from Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), the victim told police it happened because he was a Republican, the Miami Herald reports.
Dan McGraw: “Of the nearly 130 ballot measures in states this November, there are four that stand out as having importance on which direction the country is heading.”
“In no particular order, they are an abortion vote in Kentucky, ranked-choice voting change in Nevada, stricter voter ID regs in Arizona, and marijuana legalization in Arkansas.”
“All four have national importance for both parties.”
“Abortion isn’t the top issue on all voters’ minds heading into the November midterms. But it’s notably more important to voters in 2022 than in years past — and the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade in June is actively motivating more voters to turn out, a major new survey shows,” The 19th reports.
New York Times: “American entrepreneurs have long mixed their business and political interests. But no one in recent memory has fused the two quite as completely as Mr. Lindell. In less than two years, the infomercial pitchman has transformed his company into an engine of the election denial movement, using his personal wealth and advertising dollars to propel the falsehood that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump.”
“In the process, Mr. Lindell has secured a platform for his conspiracy theories — and a devoted base of consumers culled from the believers.”
ProPublica has a deep dive on other funders of the election denial movement.
“President Biden spent more than an hour this week at the White House with eight TikTok stars with a combined following of more than 67 million who were brought to Washington in hopes that their posts will turn out votes for Democrats in the Nov. 8 midterms,” the Washington Post reports.
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) “is expanding his national political tour ahead of the midterm elections — this time to bolster two red-state Republicans facing unexpectedly tough reelection bids,” Politico reports.
“Youngkin has been called in to campaign for South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt, both of whom are looking to fend off Democratic challengers in races that were once regarded as shoo-ins for the Republicans.”
“The share of US families struggling to pay everyday bills rose to a fresh record this month, underscoring the toll of inflation on budgets with only two weeks to go until the midterm elections,” Bloomberg reports.
“Almost 41% of households said it has been somewhat or very difficult to cover usual household expenses in the latest US Census Bureau household survey, the highest since the question was first asked in August 2020.”
“President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday repeated Russia’s unsubstantiated warning that Ukraine was preparing to explode a so-called dirty bomb, as concerns rose in the West that the Kremlin was seeking a pretext to escalate its war in Ukraine,” the New York Times reports.
“The good times continue at Shell. The London-based energy giant reported adjusted earnings for the third quarter of $9.45 billion, its second-highest profit on record and more than double the $4.1 billion it made in the same period a year earlier,” the New York Times reports.
“Shell is mainly benefiting from high oil and natural gas prices partly stoked by the war in Ukraine, as Russia squeezes gas flows to Europe.”
“Election Day is 12 days away. But in courtrooms across the country, efforts to sow doubt over the outcome have already begun,” the AP reports.
“More than 100 lawsuits have been filed this year around the upcoming midterm elections. The suits, largely by Republicans, target rules over mail-in voting, early voting, voter access, voting machines, voting registration, the counting of mismarked absentee ballots and access for partisan poll watchers.”
“It’s the most litigation ever before an election and it’s likely a preview of a potentially contentious post-election landscape.”
“It’s become a predictable cycle in Herschel Walker’s Senate campaign: A scandalous allegation explodes in the headlines. Walker denies it or brushes it aside. National Republicans rally around him,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
USA Today/Suffolk University Poll: “On a generic ballot, one naming parties but not individual candidates, those surveyed now support the Republican congressional candidate over the Democratic one by 49%-45%, a turnaround since the USA Today poll taken in July, when Democrats led 44%-40%. The findings stoke GOP hopes of gaining control of the House of Representatives in the Nov. 8 elections, and with that, new powers to confront the Democratic White House.”
“Democratic congressional candidates have held their support since the summer, ticking up 1 percentage point, but most of the 16% of voters who were undecided then have now made up their minds and moved to the GOP.”
Rep. Adam Schiff’s (D-CA) “behind-the-scenes work to set himself up for a run for Democratic leader is far more intricate than previously reported,” according to Punchbowl News.
“Schiff held a September leadership planning meeting with several Democrats, including Reps. Eric Swalwell, Mike Thompson, Mark Takano, and Mike Quigley, among others. This is especially notable because Swalwell and Thompson are close allies of Speaker Nancy Pelosi.”
“Schiff is also very close to the speaker. But Pelosi hasn’t said what her plans are for after the election, much less made any public moves to endorse a successor. And it’s not clear what impact an endorsement would have, even from Pelosi.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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