Bloomberg Pumps $10 Million More Into House Races
“House Democrats scrambling to keep pace with the onslaught of late-arriving Republican super PAC dollars are again turning to billionaire Mike Bloomberg for help in the closing days of the midterms,” Politico reports.
“Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor, is sending another $10 million to the House Majority PAC.”
Just in Time for Halloween
Wall Street Journal: “Candy prices are up more than 13% from a year ago, according to the Labor Department, the largest-ever yearly jump for candy. Surging labor costs and skyrocketing flour and sugar prices have helped fuel the increase, candy makers say.”
Raphael Warnock Keeps Edge in Georgia
A new Monmouth poll in Georgia finds just under half of Georgia voters say they will either definitely (39%) or probably (10%) vote for Warnock in November and a slightly smaller number will either definitely (33%) or probably (11%) vote for Walker.
At the other end of the spectrum, 40% say they will definitely not vote for Warnock and 46% say the same for Walker.
Mark Meadows Ordered to Testify
“Mark Meadows, the former White House chief of staff who was deeply involved in efforts to keep former President Donald J. Trump in power after the 2020 election, was ordered on Wednesday to travel to Atlanta to testify in a criminal investigation into election meddling,” the New York Times reports.
Earth Is on Track to Warm Above 2 Degrees Celsius
“Government plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions aren’t enough to avoid catastrophic global warming, with the planet on track to heat up between 2.1 and 2.9 degrees Celsius by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial times,” Bloomberg reports.
“Despite some progress in the last year, governments need to do more by 2030 to ensure that the global temperature increase is below 2C and ideally closer to 1.5C — the goal set in the Paris Agreement reached in 2015.”
The Coming Impeachment of Joe Biden
Barton German: “Sometime next year, after an interval of performative investigations, Republicans in the House are going to impeach Joe Biden.”
“This may not be their present plan, but they will work themselves up to it by degrees. The pressure from the MAGA base will build. A triggering event will burst all restraints. Eventually, Republicans will leave themselves little choice.”
“Gradually, and then suddenly, impeachment will become as much a litmus test for Republican House members as the Big Lie. McCarthy—‘my Kevin,’ as Trump styles him—will not hold back that tide. In the end, he will not even try.”
U.S. Officials Thought They Had Secret Oil Deal With Saudis
“As President Biden was planning a politically risky trip to Saudi Arabia this summer, his top aides thought they had struck a secret deal to boost oil production through the end of the year — an arrangement that could have helped justify breaking a campaign pledge to shun the kingdom and its crown prince,” the New York Times reports.
“It didn’t work out that way.”
“Mr. Biden went through with the trip. But earlier this month, Saudi Arabia and Russia steered a group of oil-producing countries in voting to slash oil production by two million barrels per day, the opposite of the outcome the administration thought it had secured as the Democratic Party struggles to deal with inflation and high gas prices heading into the November elections.”
Democrats Must Still Close on the Cost of Living
A new Democracy Corps (D) poll finds that Democrats “have lost ground in this survey from +3 overall margin to even in this survey — and to -2 in the likely electorate.”
“That is driven by Democrats not addressing the top issue, cost of living, where they lost 3 points to be 3 points down and Republicans driving up fears on crime and borders.
Democrats are being hurt by the persistence of the economy and crime issue and late hits by the Republicans on on the border and immigration– and that is driving the current slippage. Current Republican strategies on this issue are working. But it is the cost of living – the top worry — that is still potentially contested.”
The key takeaway: “Fear of Democratic governance generates much greater fear than what happens with Republican control.”
The Crises That Overturned Our Politics
Stan Greenberg: “The United States has been hit by four simultaneous global crises that have totally upended our politics, energy policies, and strategic worldview.”
“Democratic and Republican leaders here have barely accommodated their politics to these changes, but they will not be amused long by the chaos in the United Kingdom. It is very much part of the destructive waves hitting both our shores.”
Trump’s Super PAC Moves to Help Blake Masters
Arizona U.S. Senate candidate Blake Masters (R) “is getting a boost from Donald Trump as the former President looks to cement his kingmaker status in a state he lost in 2020,” CNN reports.
“Trump’s group has already spent $1.8 million in the Arizona Senate contest, according to data from AdImpact. A person close to Trump said the former President is willing to invest heavily in the battleground state during the final two weeks of the midterm race if he believes it will help carry Masters over the finish line.”
Republicans Hold Big Leads in Florida
A new University of North Florida poll shows Sen. Marco Rubio (R) well ahead of challenger Val Demings (D), 54% to 43%.
In the governor’s race, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) crushes challenger Charlie Crist (D), 55% to 41%.
Two in Five Voters Worry About Intimidation
Two in five U.S. voters say they are worried about threats of violence or voter intimidation at polling stations during the country’s midterm elections, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Why ‘Both Sides’ Are Not the Same
Jonathan Bernstein: “To be sure, House and Senate Democrats as a group are quite liberal. Even the most moderate among them are best thought of as moderate liberals; twenty years ago, and even ten years ago, there were more of those moderates, and they were closer to being moderate conservatives. The same is true on the Republican side. The gap between the least conservative Republicans and the least liberal Democrats has only continued to grow.”
“But the power of ideological outliers is very different between the parties. Ukraine is an excellent example. Mainstream liberal Democrats, as we’ve seen this week, are not afraid of disagreements with the House Progressive Caucus. Indeed, many of them appear to delight in contrasting themselves with those who are more liberal.”
“Mainstream Republicans, however, are terrified of any significant criticism from those who call themselves extreme conservatives — which allows those radicals to bully the rest of the party.”
Lawyer Who Fought Helmet Laws Died Not Wearing One
A Florida lawyer who fought against state laws requiring motorcycle riders to wear helmets was killed in a motorcycle crash while not wearing a helmet, the Tampa Bay Times reports.
Why You Should Ignore the Polls
Dan Pfeiffer: “Two weeks until the election, the ‘Pollercoaster’ is in full effect. Every day brings a barrage of new polls and a fresh wave of terror about the outcome of the election. The polls are tightening in races that seem in hand, and they are widening in longer-shot races in which we thought we had a chance. Even the polls with positive news for Democrats are dismissed out of legitimate fears that they are biased against Dems. Political reporters are relishing the opportunity to make Democrats suffer. On Sunday, the conservative political analyst who writes the weekly Axios newsletter used the term ‘Red Tsunami’ to describe what might be coming.”
“As a person who is deeply concerned about the future of the country and has a tendency towards high blood pressure, this is not a great situation.”
Paul Ryan Says Anyone Not Named Trump Can Win
Former Speaker Paul Ryan told Fox Business that Republicans have a much a better shot at winning the White House if the party does not nominate former President Donald Trump in 2024.
Said Ryan: “That new swing voter in American politics is the suburban voter, and it’s really clear the suburban voter doesn’t like Trump, but they like Republicans. So I think anybody not named Trump, I think is so much more likely to win the White House for us.”
Big Majority of Republicans Don’t Think Biden Is Legitimate
A new NBC News poll shows “just 22% of registered Republican voters believe in the legitimacy of Biden’s election, with 65% viewing his election illegitimate.”
“That makes Republicans an outlier — overall, 60% of registered voters believe Biden’s election was legitimate and 33% do not.”