Politico: “The share of taxpayers who get money back at tax time is slowly and, a little mysteriously, shrinking… While no one is exactly sure why, some point to changes in the way people work.”
The Americans Crossing Biden’s $400,000 Tax Line
Wall Street Journal: “In his successful 2020 presidential run, Biden pledged to protect households from tax increases if their income was below that threshold. He reupped the promise for his re-election bid and is planning to draw tax-policy contrasts with Republican rival Donald Trump in a Tuesday speech in Pennsylvania…”
“Notably, Biden isn’t adjusting the $400,000 to account for inflation during his first term, keeping the round number he started with. That amount in May 2020, when Biden articulated the plan, is equivalent to more than $487,000 now.”
“Because of inflation and economic growth, the pool of $400,000-and-up households increased to 3.4 million in 2022, up 33% from 2019.”
Debt Danger Ahead
Bloomberg ran a million forecast simulations on the US debt outlook and found that 88% of them “show borrowing on an unsustainable path.”
They Voted No But Got the Dough
Congress passed over $71 million in earmarks in the recent minibus spending legislation for lawmakers who ultimately voted against the package, Punchbowl News reports.
Tax the Rich is Actually a Popular Bipartisan Stance
“The progressive rallying cry of ‘tax the rich’ has morphed into a popular policy stance with voters in the key states that will decide the 2024 election, enjoying support even among those who prefer billionaire Donald Trump,” according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.
Quote of the Day
“And after all of that delay — how different ultimately was the outcome?”
— Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), quoted by Politico, noting the final spending bill was no different than ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) could have negotiated.
Senate Approves Measure Averting Shutdown
“The Senate approved a $1.2 trillion package funding federal agencies in the early hours of Saturday morning, missing its midnight deadline but averting a partial government shutdown,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The passage of the measure in a 74 to 24 vote wrapped up months of drama in Congress that centered on conservatives’ demands for deeper spending cuts, completing work on funding the government through the end of the fiscal year in September. The measure, which passed the House on Friday, now goes to President Biden for his signature.”
Partial Government Shutdown Likely
The Senate is unlikely to reach an agreement to vote on the $1.2 trillion funding package before the midnight deadline, triggering a lapse in appropriations for 70% of the government, Punchbowl News reports.
The GOP is demanding votes on amendments related to immigration and other contentious topics. Democratic leaders are worried these could pass, meaning the House would need to return to vote on the amended funding bill.
Without a time agreement, the next vote would occur one hour after the Senate convenes Sunday.
House GOP Leadership Struggles with Funding Bill
“This will come as no surprise, but House Republicans are struggling to round up enough votes to help pass the $1.2 trillion FY2024 minibus funding bill,” Punchbowl News reports.
“These aren’t hair-on-fire concerns quite yet — but it’s approaching that level. The whip count at Thursday’s early afternoon vote series came in softer than the House Republican leadership would’ve liked. Leadership aides, however, expressed confidence they’d be able to deliver enough votes to hit the two-thirds needed to pass this 1,000-page measure. A partial government shutdown begins at midnight, although it won’t be fully felt until Monday.”
Playbook: “The House math is a little more precarious than usual, since Speaker Mike Johnson is opting to pass the bill under suspension of the rules, meaning a two-thirds majority will be needed — about 280 votes, given attendance this week.”
Top Republican Pans Bipartisan Tax Deal
“The Senate Finance Committee’s top Republican, Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID), told GOP colleagues privately on Wednesday that he doesn’t want to pass a tax bill this year,” Punchbowl News reports.
“Crapo spoke about persistent problems with the legislation after negotiations on the Wyden-Smith deal broke down last week.”
“Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) also spoke up against the tax bill and its child tax credit expansion during the lunch… Romney’s opposition is especially notable because he’s been a leading GOP voice in favor of expanding the child credit and has suggested bipartisan deal-making to do it.”
U.S. Debt Races Toward Record This Decade
“The federal debt as a share of the U.S. economy is poised to hit a record by 2029 and will continue to rise over the next three decades, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said on Wednesday in a report that laid out the nation’s long-term fiscal challenges,” the New York Times reports.
Business Tax Breaks Face ‘Now or Never’ Moment
“U.S. businesses, big and small, have united behind a bipartisan bill to revive expired tax breaks for research and equipment spending, help that many see as critical to competing with foreign rivals or even surviving,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The problem: They can’t get Senate Republicans—usually their allies—to budge.”
“The House passed the measure 357-70 in January, but GOP lawmakers have stalled the bill in the Senate. Aside from business provisions, the measure would expand the child tax credit and curtail the fraud-ridden employee retention tax credit. Senate Republicans’ complaints include the details of child-credit changes, their inability to amend the bill and the prospect of a better deal next year if Republicans win the Senate majority in November’s election.”
Lawmakers Reach Spending Deal
Congressional negotiators have come to an agreement with the White House on Homeland Security funding, the final piece of the FY2024 spending package, Punchbowl News reports.
Leadership and key committee aides are working right now to finalize text in hopes of releasing it in the coming days.
Government Shutdown Grows More Likely
“Congressional leadership is not expected to release text for a bipartisan funding deal today, making a government shutdown more likely this weekend,” Punchbowl News reports.
“The two sides have not resolved a dispute over funding for the Department of Homeland Security for the remainder of FY2024.”
Border Security Deadlock Heightens Risk of Shutdown
“A dispute over border security funding threatens to force a shutdown of vast swaths of the federal government in less than a week, as Congress and the White House struggled Sunday to reach a deal on long-term spending legislation,” the Washington Post reports.
“Funding for roughly 70 percent of the federal government — including the departments of Defense, State and Homeland Security as well as the IRS and Transportation Security Administration — will lapse at 12:01 a.m. Saturday unless Congress acts before then.”
Punchbowl News: “The White House clearly thinks it has the upper hand here due to Republicans killing the bipartisan Senate border deal recently.”
Biden to Issue Budget Plan for Second Term
“President Joe Biden is issuing a budget plan Monday aimed at getting voters’ attention: tax breaks for families, lower health care costs, smaller deficits and higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations,” the AP reports.
“Unlikely to pass the House and Senate to become law, the proposal for fiscal 2025 is an election-year blueprint about what the future could hold if Biden and enough of his fellow Democrats win in November…”
“If the Biden budget became law, deficits could be pruned $3 trillion over a decade. Parents could get an increased child tax credit. Homebuyers could get a tax credit worth $9,600. Corporate taxes would jump upward, while billionaires would be charged a minimum tax of 25%.”
Playbook: “You are correct to note that Congress still hasn’t finished passing fiscal 2024 appropriations, so please forgive us snarking our way toward fiscal 2025. But we still manage to pay a modicum of attention every year to glean how the administration is assembling and messaging its priorities — ‘show me your budget, and I’ll show you your values,’ and all that.”
Government Stays Open with Just Hours to Spare
“The Senate gave final approval on Friday to a $460 billion spending bill to fund about half the federal government through the fall, sending the legislation to President Biden’s desk with just hours to spare to avert a partial shutdown,” the New York Times reports.
House Passes Six Spending Bills
“The House approved a six-bill government funding package on Wednesday, sending the bill to the Senate with little time to spare before yet another government shutdown deadline,” Politico reports.
“The upper chamber must now lock down an agreement to speed up votes on the $459 billion measure before the weekend, which requires consent from all 100 senators. Republicans will likely demand a number of amendment votes in exchange, though none are expected to succeed.”
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