First Read: “If Obama is sitting pretty with his African-American base, the same can’t be said with the middle of the country. In our poll, 56% of independents, 57% of suburban residents, and 52% of folks from the Midwest disapprove of the president’s job. And in a hypothetical match-up against Romney, independents and suburban residents swing for Romney, while folks from the Midwest are split between Obama and Romney. So if Obama’s base could explain why he wins re-election, his struggles with the middle of the country could explain why he loses in 2012.”

